Excess mortality in the general population versus Veterans Healthcare System during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Importance The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on the overall rate of death in the United States during the first year. It is unclear whether access to comprehensive medical care, such as through the VA healthcare system, altered death rates compared to the US population. Objective: Quantify the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the general US population and among individuals who receive comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Design: Analysis of changes in all-cause death rates by quarter, stratified by age, sex race/ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Hierarchical regression models were fit in a Bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations. Setting and participants: General population of the United States, enrollees in the VA, and active users of VA healthcare. Exposure and main outcome: Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared to previous years. Results Sharp increases were apparent across all of the adult age groups (25 years and older) in both the general US population and the VA populations. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates was similar in the general US population (RR 1.20 (95% CI 1.17, 1.22)), VA enrollees (RR 1.20 (95% CI 1.14, 1.29)), and VA active users (RR 1.19 (95% CI 1.14, 1.26)). Because the pre-pandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations. Conclusions and Relevance Despite access to comprehensive medical care, active users of the VA had similar relative mortality increases from all causes compared with the general US population. Factors that influenced baseline rates of death and that mitigated viral transmission in the community are more likely to have influenced the impact of the pandemic.