Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría de la probabilidad: Aplicación clínica en poblaciones de leucocitos, linfocitos y CD4 de pacientes con VIH T / CD4 Lymphocytes Prediction Based on the Theory of Probability: Clinical application on leukocytes, lymphocytes and CD4 populations of HIV patients
Models for the prediction of the CD4 decrease rate in VIH/AIDSpatients have been developed with neural networks, and also for the prediction of the variability in CD4 counts decrease in seropositive and seronegative patients with epidemiological models.
Seven CBC of particular cases were evaluated, by determining the total count of leucocytes and lymphocytes, and the proportion of CD4 Lymphocytes by flow cytometry. Based on a previous work an induction was developed; with that induction the sets A, B, C and D were determined. Based on that sets we established the probability of aparition of specific combinations of leucocytes, Lymphocytes ans CD4 values, in ranges of 1.000 leucocytes, in 128 cases.
Results:
it is predicted that the leucocytes ranges lower than 5,000 and 4,000 per cubic milimeter of peripheral blood are associated with less than 570 CD4 per microliter with a probability of 0.92 and 1 respectively. As the quantity of populations diminishes, the success percentage between the three measures is more effective.
Conclusion:
The probability theory revealed a mathematical self-organization of the studied cellular populations, allowing the development of predictions in a clinical level for the CD4 number from the CBC, diminishing costs and deducting the results of the flow cytometry.