Effects of environmental factors on severity and mortality of COVID-19
Domagoj Kifer; Dario Bugada; Judit Villar-Garcia; Ivan Gudelj; Cristina Menni; Carole Helene Sudre; Frano Vuckovic; Ivo Ugrina; Luca F Lorini; Silvia Bettinelli; Nicola Ughi; Alessandro Maloberti; Oscar Epis; Cristina Giannattasio; Claudio Rossetti; Livije Kalogjera; Jasminka Persec; Luke Ollivere; Benjamin Ollivere; Huadong Yan; Ting Cai; Guruprasad Aithal; Claire Steves; Anu Kantele; Mikael Kajova; Olli Vapalahti; Antti Sajantila; Rafal Wojtowicz; Waldemar Wierzba; Zbigniew Krol; Artur Zaczynski; Katarzyna Zycinska; Marek Postula; Ivica Luksic; Rok Civljak; Alemka Markotic; Christian Mahnkopf; Andreas Markl; Johannes Brachmann; Benjamin Murray; Sebastien Ourselin; Julio Pascual; Ana M Valdes; Margarita Posso; Juan Horcajada; Xavier Castells; Massimo Allegri; Dragan Primorac; Timothy Spector; Clara Barrios; Gordan Lauc.
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| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20147157
BackgroundMost respiratory viruses show pronounced seasonality, but for SARS-CoV-2 this still needs to be documented. MethodsWe examined the disease progression of COVID-19 in 6,914 patients admitted to hospitals in Europe and China. In addition, we evaluated progress of disease symptoms in 37,187 individuals reporting symptoms into the COVID Symptom Study application. FindingsMeta-analysis of the mortality risk in eight European hospitals estimated odds ratios per one day increase in the admission date to be 0.981 (0.973-0.988, p<0.001) and per increase in ambient temperature of one degree Celsius to be 0.854 (0.773-0.944, p=0.007). Statistically significant decreases of comparable magnitude in median hospital stay, probability of transfer to Intensive Care Unit and need for mechanical ventilation were also observed in most, but not all hospitals. The analysis of individually reported symptoms of 37,187 individuals in the UK also showed the decrease in symptom duration and disease severity with time. InterpretationSeverity of COVID-19 in Europe decreased significantly between March and May and the seasonality of COVID-19 is the most likely explanation. Mucosal barrier and mucociliary clearance can significantly decrease viral load and disease progression, and their inactivation by low relative humidity of indoor air might significantly contribute to severity of the disease.
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