Declining SARS-CoV-2 PCR sensitivity with time and dependence on clinical features: consequences for control
Barbara J.M. Bergmans; Chantal B.E.M. Reusken; Anne J.G. Van Oudheusden; Gert-Jan Godeke; Axel A. Bonacic Marinovic; Esther de Vries; Yvette C.M. Kluiters-de Hingh; Ralf Vingerhoets; Marvin A.H. Berrevoets; Jaco J. Verweij; An-Emmie Nieman; Johan Reimerink; Jean-Luc Murk; Arno N Swart.
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| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20179408
Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples is the primary method to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infections and guide public health measures, with a supportive role for serology. However, the clinical sensitivity of RT-PCR remains uncertain. In the present study, Bayesian statistical modeling was used to retrospectively determine the sensitivity of RT-PCR using SARS-CoV-2 serology in 644 COVID-19-suspected patients with varying degrees of disease severity and duration. The sensitivity of RTPCR ranged between 79-95%; while increasing with disease severity, it decreased rapidly over time in mild COVID-19 cases. Negative URT RT-PCR results should therefore be interpreted in the context of clinical characteristics, especially with regard to containment of viral transmission based on the test, trace and isolate principle.
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