Short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave - a preregistered study
Johannes Bracher; Daniel Wolffram; Jannik Deuschel; Konstantin Goergen; Jakob L. Ketterer; Alexander Ullrich; Sam Abbott; Maria Vittoria Barbarossa; Dimitris Bertsimas; Sangeeta Bhatia; Marcin Bodych; Nikos I. Bosse; Jan Pablo Burgard; Lauren Castro; Geoffrey Fairchild; Jan Fuhrmann; Sebastian Funk; Krzysztof Gogolewski; Quanquan Gu; Stefan Heyder; Thomas Hotz; Yuri Kheifetz; Holger Kirsten; Tyll Krueger; Ekaterina Krymova; Michael Lingzhi Li; Jan H. Meinke; Isaac J. Michaud; Karol Niedzielewski; Tomasz Ozanski; Franciszek Rakowski; Markus Scholz; Saksham Soni; Ajitesh Srivastava; Jakub Zielinski; Difan Zou; Tilmann Gneiting; Melanie Schienle.
Preprint
en Inglés
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20248826
We report insights from ten weeks of collaborative COVID-19 forecasting for Germany and Poland (12 October - 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.
Texto completo
Documentos relacionados