Genomic characterization and Epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India
Mahesh Shanker Dhar; Robin Marwal; Radhakrishnan VS; Kalaiarasan Ponnusamy; Bani Jolly; Rahul C Bhoyar; Saman Fatihi; Meena Datta; Priyanka Singh; Uma Sharma; Rajat Ujjainia; Salwa Naushin; Mercy Rophina; Thomas A Mellan; Swapnil Mishra; Charles Whittaker; Nitin Batheja; Mohit Kumar Divakar; Viren Sardana; Manoj Kumar Singh; Mohamed Imran; Vigneshwar Senthivel; Ranjeet Maurya; Neha Jha; Priyanka Mehta; VIvekanand A; Pooja Sharma; Arvinden VR; Urmila Choudhary; Namita Soni; Seth Flaxman; Samir Bhatt; Lipi Thukral; Rajesh Pandey; Debasis Dash; Mohammed Faruq; Hemlata Lall; Hema Gogia; Preeti Madan; Sanket Kulkarni; Himanshu Chauhan; Shantanu Sengupta; Sandhya Kabra; - The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG); Ravindra K Gupta; Sujeet Kumar Singh; Anurag Agrawal; Partha Rakshit.
Preprint
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| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-21258076
Delhi, the national capital of India, has experienced multiple SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in 2020 and reached a population seropositivity of over 50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant B.1.617.2 (Delta) replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and partial reduction of immunity elicited by prior infection (median estimates; x1.5-fold, 20% reduction). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 86% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi. One-Sentence SummaryDelhi experienced an overwhelming surge of COVID-19 cases and fatalities peaking in May 2021 as the highly transmissible and immune evasive Delta variant replaced the Alpha variant.
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