Preprint
en Inglés
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-22279377
Quantifying variation of individual infectiousness is critical to inform diseasecontrol. Previous studies reported substantial heterogeneity in transmission of many infectious diseases (including SARS-CoV-2). However, those results are difficult to interpret since the number of contacts is rarely considered in such approaches. Here, we analyze data from 17 SARS-CoV-2householdtransmission studies conducted in periods dominated by ancestral strains, in which the number of contacts was known. By fitting individual-based householdtransmission models to these data, accounting for number of contacts and baseline transmissionprobabilities, the pooled estimate suggests that the 20% most infectious cases have 3.1-fold (95% confidence interval 2.2-4.2 fold) higher infectiousness than average cases, which is consistent with the observed heterogeneity in viral shedding. Household data can inform the estimation of transmission heterogeneity, which is important for epidemic management. One Sentence SummaryIn this study, variation of individual infectiousness is quantified. Potential sources of such variation, particularly heterogeneity of viral shedding is discussed.