Survival Estimates after Stopping Sorafenib in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: NEXT Score Development and Validation
Hye-Won LEE; Hyun-Soo KIM; Seung-Up KIM; Do-Young KIM; Beom-Kyung KIM; Jun-Yong PARK; Sang-Hoon AHN; Mi-Young JEON; Ja-Yoon HEO; Soo-Young PARK; Yu-Rim LEE; Sun-Kyung JANG; Su-Hyun LEE; Se-Young JANG; Won-Young TAK; Kwang-Hyub HAN.
Gut and Liver
; : 693-701, 2017.
Artículo
en Inglés
| WPRIM | ID: wpr-175160
BACKGROUND/
AIMS:
Limited information is available regarding patient survival after sorafenib discontinuation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we developed and validated a novel survival prediction model.METHODS:
Clinical data from 409 patients with HCC who stopped taking sorafenib between September 2008 and February 2015 were reviewed.RESULTS:
In the training cohort, four factors were independent negative predictors of survival (p400 ng/mL. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values to predict 1-, 3-, and 6-month survival rates were 0.805, 0.809, and 0.774, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.783, 0.728, and 0.673, respectively, in the validation cohort (n=137). When the training and validation cohorts were stratified into three risk groups (NEXT score 0 [low-risk] vs 1 to 2 [intermediate-risk] vs 3 to 4 [high-risk]), survival differed significantly between the groups (p<0.05, log-rank test).CONCLUSIONS:
In patients with HCC, survival after stopping sorafenib is poor. However, risk estimates based on a new “NEXT score” may help predict survival and prognosis even in patients who discontinue sorafenib treatment.
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