<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore dynamic characteristics of the
HIV mother to child transmission (MTCT)
epidemic in
China.</p><p><b>
METHODS</b>A deterministic dynamic
transmission model was used to determine the effect of key
parameters on the likely long-term
trends of the
HIV MTCT
epidemic in
China. Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The number of the susceptibles (S), the
transmission rate (β), and the
screening proportion (α) of
HIV positive
pregnant women have the greatest impact on the
HIV MTCT
epidemic in
China. The
growth of the MTCT
epidemic in
China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT
transmission rate. The
prevalence of
HIV positive
women should be reduced and more
pregnant women should be tested for
HIV.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) should focus not only on the reduction of
HIV transmission rates and
incidences of
HIV among
women but also on the increase of
HIV testing for
pregnant women. The most
cost-effective PMTCT means for
China should be investigated in
future studies.</p>