Proposal of a novel clinical score to predict heart failure incidence in long-term survivors of acute coronary syndromes.

INTRODUCTION: HF remains a frequent complication following MI and adversely affects prognosis. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of HF following MI and to design a risk score for its prediction. METHODS: Retrospective study of all consecutive patients admitted for MI. Primary end point was time to incident HF. Patients with previous history of HF were excluded. Death was modelled as competing risk. RESULTS: 5737 patients were included. Mean age was 66.32±12.80. During a median follow-up of 47.0months (23.0-73.0), 686 patients (12%) developed HF. Age, diabetes mellitus, peripheral artery disease, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, persistent atrial fibrillation, haemoglobin, troponin peak, diuretic at admission, ventricular function, and revascularization were independent predictors for HF development. According to this multivariate regression analysis, we developed a novel score that allows for the identification of patients at high (≥16), medium (9-15) and low risk (<9) for HF development, with an AUC of 0.77 (IC 95%, 0.76-0.78; p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical comorbidities were determinant for the development of HF following MI. A simple score effectively categorize patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk. This could be important in order to intensify medical treatment or consider additional interventions.

Evaluation of SAMe-TT2R2 risk score for predicting the quality of anticoagulation control in a real-world cohort of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on vitamin-K antagonists.

AIMS: Clinicians need to get better at identifying patients who would have poor quality of anticoagulation control with vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs). We assessed the predictive ability of SAMe-TT2R2 score, recently conceived for the prior purpose, and examined its relationship with major bleeding, thromboembolic (TE) complications, and death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Retrospectively, 911 consecutive patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) started on VKAs within 8 months were studied. The percentage of international normalized ratios in therapeutic range (PINRR) at different levels was used as a metric of anticoagulation quality. We also tested the SAMe-TT2R2 predictability for major bleeding, TE complications, and death throughout 10 ± 3 months. The PINRR decreased from 62% at zero point to 53% at ≥4 points of SAMe-TT2R2. 82.1% of patients who achieved PINRR ≥ 70% had 0 or 1 point of SAMe-TT2R2. SAMe-TT2R2 performed significantly better at PINRR 70% than at 65 and 60% (c-statistic = 0.60 vs. c-statistic = 0.56). The calibration of SAMe-TT2R2 was excellent (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-values ≥ 0.6). SAMe-TT2R2 showed significant association with the composite outcome of major bleeding, TE complications, and death [n = 98; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.60]; the c-statistic was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.51-0.62) and P = 0.03. As individual outcomes, SAMe-TT2R2 was significantly associated with death (n = 60; HR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.03-1.69), but not with either major bleeding (n = 30; HR = 1.2; 95% CI: 0.85-1.76) or TE complications (n = 15; HR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.58-1.77). CONCLUSION: Among NVAF patients, SAMe-TT2R2 could represent a useful clinical tool to identify patients who would have poor quality of anticoagulation control with VKAs. SAMe-TT2R2 successfully predicts the composite outcome of major bleeding, TE complications, and death.