Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

The Effects of Endotracheal Suctioning on Hemodynamic Parameters and Tissue Oxygenation in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

Airway secretions may increase in intubated patients due to the impaired mucociliary clearance, impaired cough reflex, abnormal glottic function, insufficient moisturizing, and respiratory tract infections. As with any intervention, patients should be cautiously monitored for possible complications during the endotracheal suctioning. Procedure-related changes in the cerebral and somatic tissue oxygenation, hemodynamics, and oxygen saturation can be observed in these patients. It is important to ensure maintenance of tissue oxygenation during these and other interventions performed in critically ill children. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of the endotracheal suctioning on tissue oxygenation in patients undergoing mechanical ventilation in the pediatric intensive care unit. Cerebral and somatic near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitoring were performed noninvasively using standardized NIRS equipment as a means of monitoring regional tissue oxygenation. Vital signs, level of sedation, pain scores, and somatic and cerebral tissue oxygenation values of mechanically ventilated patients were recorded prospectively 5 minutes before, during, and after endotracheal suctioning. Cerebral NIRS measurements did not exhibit any statistically significant changes during endotracheal suctioning. Somatic NIRS levels changed significantly before, during, and after endotracheal suctioning and remained low throughout the procedure. Endotracheal suctioning is an invasive intervention that facilitates clearance of tracheal secretions and maintenance of the oxygenation and ventilation. The maintenance of the tissue oxygenation should be documented during these and other interventions performed on critically ill children. Somatic NIRS is a useful tool for monitoring tissue oxygenation during such procedures.

Analysis of a Simulation Model to Estimate Long-term Outcomes in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Importance: Quantitative assessment of disease progression in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been systematically examined using competing liver-related and non-liver-related mortality. Objective: To estimate long-term outcomes in NAFLD, accounting for competing liver-related and non-liver-related mortality associated with the different fibrosis stages of NAFLD using a simulated patient population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical modeling study used individual-level state-transition simulation analysis and was conducted from September 1, 2017, to September 1, 2021. A publicly available interactive tool, dubbed NAFLD Simulator, was developed that simulates the natural history of NAFLD by age and fibrosis stage at the time of (hypothetical) diagnosis defined by liver biopsy. Model health states were defined by fibrosis states F0 to F4, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplant. Simulated patients could experience nonalcoholic steatohepatitis resolution, and their fibrosis stage could progress or regress. Transition probabilities between states were estimated from the literature as well as calibration, and the model reproduced the outcomes of a large observational study. Exposure: Simulated natural history of NAFLD. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were life expectancy; all cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality; and cumulative incidence of decompensated cirrhosis and/or HCC. Results: The model included 1 000 000 simulated patients with a mean (range) age of 49 (18-75) years at baseline, including 66% women. The life expectancy of patients aged 49 years was 25.3 (95% CI, 20.1-29.8) years for those with F0, 25.1 (95% CI, 20.1-29.4) years for those with F1, 23.6 (95% CI, 18.3-28.2) years for those with F2, 21.1 (95% CI, 15.6-26.3) years for those with F3, and 13.8 (95% CI, 10.3-17.6) years for those with F4 at the time of diagnosis. The estimated 10-year liver-related mortality was 0.1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], <0.1%-0.2%) in F0, 0.2% (95% UI, 0.1%-0.4%) in F1, 1.0% (95% UI, 0.6%-1.7%) in F2, 4.0% (95% UI, 2.5%-5.9%) in F3, and 29.3% (95% UI, 21.8%-35.9%) in F4. The corresponding 10-year non-liver-related mortality was 1.8% (95% UI, 0.6%-5.0%) in F0, 2.4% (95% UI, 0.8%-6.3%) in F1, 5.2% (95% UI, 2.0%-11.9%) in F2, 9.7% (95% UI, 4.3%-18.1%) in F3, and 15.6% (95% UI, 10.1%-21.7%) in F4. Among patients aged 65 years, estimated 10-year non-liver-related mortality was higher than liver-related mortality in all fibrosis stages (eg, F2: 16.7% vs 0.8%; F3: 28.8% vs 3.0%; F4: 40.8% vs 21.9%). Conclusions and Relevance: This decision analytic model study simulated stage-specific long-term outcomes, including liver- and non-liver-related mortality in patients with NAFLD. Depending on age and fibrosis stage, non-liver-related mortality was higher than liver-related mortality in patients with NAFLD. By translating surrogate markers into clinical outcomes, the NAFLD Simulator could be used as an educational tool among patients and clinicians to increase awareness of the health consequences of NAFLD.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission. Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs. Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs. Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022. Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges. Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.

Patterns of Alcohol Use After Early Liver Transplantation for Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early liver transplantation (LT) for alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is lifesaving but concerns regarding return to harmful alcohol use remain. We sought to identify distinct patterns of alcohol use post-LT to inform pre-LT candidate selection and post-LT addiction care. METHODS: Detailed post-LT alcohol use data was gathered retrospectively from consecutive patients with severe AH at 11 ACCELERATE-AH sites from 2006-2018. Latent class analysis identified longitudinal patterns of alcohol use post-LT. Logistic and Cox regression evaluated associations between patterns of alcohol use with pre-LT variables and post-LT survival. A microsimulation model estimated the effect of selection criteria on overall outcomes. RESULTS: Of 153 LT recipients, 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival were 95%, 88% and 82%. Of 146 LT recipients surviving to home discharge, 4 distinct longitudinal patterns of post-LT alcohol use were identified: Pattern 1 [abstinent](n = 103; 71%), pattern 2 [late/non-heavy](n = 9; 6.2%), pattern 3 [early/non-heavy](n = 22; 15%), pattern 4 [early/heavy](n = 12; 8.2%). One-year survival was similar among the 4 patterns (100%), but patients with early post-LT alcohol use had lower 5-year survival (62% and 53%) compared to abstinent and late/non-heavy patterns (95% and 100%). Early alcohol use patterns were associated with younger age, multiple prior rehabilitation attempts, and overt encephalopathy. In simulation models, the pattern of post-LT alcohol use changed the average life-expectancy after early LT for AH. CONCLUSIONS: A significant majority of LT recipients for AH maintain longer-term abstinence, but there are distinct patterns of alcohol use associated with higher risk of 3- and 5-year mortality. Pre-LT characteristics are associated with post-LT alcohol use patterns and may inform candidate selection and post-LT addiction care.

Mapping of critical events in disease progression through binary classification: Application to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The progression of many degenerative diseases is tracked periodically using scales evaluating functionality in daily activities. Although estimating the timing of critical events (i.e., disease tollgates) during degenerative disease progression is desirable, the necessary data may not be readily available in scale records. Further, analysis of disease progression poses data challenges, such as censoring and misclassification errors, which need to be addressed to provide meaningful research findings and inform patients. METHODS: We developed a novel binary classification approach to map scale scores into disease tollgates to describe disease progression leveraging standard/modified Kaplan-Meier analyses. The approach is demonstrated by estimating progression pathways in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Tollgate-based ALS Staging System (TASS) specifies the critical events (i.e., tollgates) in ALS progression. We first developed a binary classification predicting whether each TASS tollgate was passed given the itemized ALSFRS-R scores using 514 ALS patients' data from Mayo Clinic-Rochester. Then, we utilized the binary classification to translate/map the ALSFRS-R data of 3,264 patients from the PRO-ACT database into TASS. We derived the time trajectories of ALS progression through tollgates from the augmented PRO-ACT data using Kaplan-Meier analyses. The effects of misclassification errors, condition-dependent dropouts, and censored data in trajectory estimations were evaluated with Interval Censored Kaplan Meier Analysis and Multistate Model for Panel Data. RESULTS: The approach using Mayo Clinic data accurately estimated tollgate-passed states of patients given their itemized ALSFRS-R scores (AUCs > 0.90). The tollgate time trajectories derived from the augmented PRO-ACT dataset provide valuable insights; we predicted that the majority of the ALS patients would have modified arm function (67%) and require assistive devices for walking (53%) by the second year after ALS onset. By the third year, most (74%) ALS patients would occasionally use a wheelchair, while 48% of the ALS patients would be wheelchair-dependent by the fourth year. Assistive speech devices and feeding tubes were needed in 49% and 30% of the patients by the third year after ALS onset, respectively. The onset body region alters some tollgate passage time estimations by 1-2 years. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated tollgate-based time trajectories inform patients and clinicians about prospective assistive device needs and life changes. More research is needed to personalize these estimations according to prognostic factors. Further, the approach can be leveraged in the progression of other diseases.

Frequency and Causes of Delirium in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: A Prospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The number of studies evaluating delirium and its frequency in critically ill infants, children, and adolescents is increasing day by day. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate all patients hospitalized in our pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in terms of pediatric delirium, to determine the frequency and risk factors of pediatric delirium. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The patients included in this study had been hospitalized in the PICU between November 1, 2018, and August 31, 2019, and were followed up for more than 48 hours. RESULTS: Delirium was detected in 14 patients (9.9%) through regular evaluations. The Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM2) scores and the length of stay in the PICU were higher in patients with delirium (p = 0.03 and p = 0.01, respectively). The use of respiratory support, sedation-analgesia, vasoactive and corticosteroid treatments, and physical restraints were higher in patients with delirium and were statistically significant (p <0.05). Following admission to the PICU, psychosocial interventions were implemented for 76.1% of the whole cohort. Delirium developed in only five (4.5%) of the 108 patients who underwent psychosocial interventions, while it was detected in nine (26.5%) of the 34 patients who did not receive psychosocial interventions (p = 0.001). The psychosocial intervention was associated with a lower likelihood of delirium (odds ratio [OR], 0.237; p = 0.044). An increasing number of days in the PICU was independently associated with increasing odds of delirium (OR, 1.095; p = 0.037 for each day). CONCLUSIONS: We observed that the risk factors associated with delirium were similar to previous studies. Additionally, psychosocial intervention before delirium symptoms developed was associated with a lower risk of developing delirium. However, multicenter randomized controlled trials are needed on this subject. HOW TO CITE THIS ARTICLE: Yontem A, Yildizdas D, Horoz OO, et al. Frequency and Causes of Delirium in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: A Prospective Observational Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(6):715-719.

Acquired Bartter-like Syndrome Presenting with Polyuria and Reversible Hypokalemia Associated with Colistin Use in a Critically Ill Pediatric Patient.

We report a case of an acquired Bartter-like syndrome (BLS) after 3 days of treatment initiation and improved after discontinuation of colistin therapy in pediatric intensive care unit. A 2-month-old girl with spinal muscular atrophy type 1 who had respiratory distress received colistin therapy with a dose of 5 mg/kg/day for Acinetobacter baumannii complex isolation from endotracheal aspirate on the 12th day follow-up. Polyuria (6 mL/kg/hour) in the presence of normal blood pressure and hypokalemic metabolic alkalosis were developed on the 3rd day of colistin treatment. Colistin was stopped on the 4th day, and 2 days after discontinuation of colistin, polyuria improved dramatically. Her metabolic alkalosis and hypokalemia discontinued after 2 and 4 days, respectively. There are very few reports about colistin-induced BLS. The onset of polyuria, hypokalemia, and metabolic alkalosis during treatment with colistin and resolution after interruption suggest a causative relationship. How to cite this article: Yavas DP, Ekinci F, Horoz OO, Gundeslioglu OO, Atmis B, Yildizdas D. Acquired Bartter-like Syndrome Presenting with Polyuria and Reversible Hypokalemia Associated with Colistin Use in a Critically Ill Pediatric Patient. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(7):822-824.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naive baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance StatementThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

The protective effect of betanin and copper on heart and lung in end­organ ischemia reperfusion injury.

OBJECTIVES: Betanin and copper sulphate have been previously indicated as beneficial agents for ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) as antioxidant compounds in various models. We investigated whether betanin and copper have any protective effects on the heart and lung against I/R injury in rats. METHODS: Spraque-Dawley rats were assigned in groups: Sham (laparotomy only), control (I/R only), betanin treatment (100 mg/kg of betanin administered intraperitoneally (i.p.) 60 minutes before I/R) and copper sulfate treatment group (0.1 mg/kg/day copper sulfate i.p. for 7 days before I/R). Ischemia was induced by clamping the aorta between the left renal artery and aortic bifurcation for 45 minutes. After 48-hour reperfusion, the rats were sacrificed and heart/lung tissues were harvested. Malondialdehyde (MDA), myeloperoxidase (MPO), interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels were determined. Apoptosis was determined via TUNEL assay. RESULTS: MDA, MPO, IL-6 levels and apoptotic cells were significantly increased in the I/R group. In both treatment groups, MDA and MPO levels were decreased. IL-6 was significantly decreased in response to betanin administration in the heart, but not in the lung; copper had no effect in either area. The numbers of apoptotic cells were significantly decreased in both treatment groups. CONCLUSION: Betanin and copper may have protective effects on I/R injury in the heart and lung in rats (Fig. 6, Ref. 39).

Daily Practice of Mechanical Ventilation and Weaning in Turkish PICUs: A Multicenter Prospective Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate conventional mechanical ventilation weaning characteristics of patients requiring conventional mechanical ventilation support for greater than 48 hours within the PICU. DESIGN: The prospective observational multicenter cohort study was conducted at 15 hospitals. Data were being collected from November 2013 to June 2014, with two designated researchers from each center responsible for follow-up and data entry. SETTING: Fifteen tertiary PICUs in Turkey. PATIENTS: Patients between 1 month and 18 years old requiring conventional mechanical ventilation for greater than 48 hours were included. A single-center was not permitted to surpass 20% of the total sample size. Patients with no plans for conventional mechanical ventilation weaning were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: Conventional mechanical ventilation MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Pertinent variables included PICU and patient demographics, including clinical data, chronic diseases, comorbid conditions, and reasons for intubation. Conventional mechanical ventilation mode and weaning data were characterized by daily ventilator parameters and blood gases. Patients were monitored until hospital discharge. Of the 410 recruited patients, 320 were included for analyses. A diagnosis of sepsis requiring intubation and high initial peak inspiratory pressures correlated with a longer weaning period (mean, 3.65 vs 1.05-2.17 d; p < 0.001). Conversely, age, admission Pediatric Risk of Mortality III scores, days of conventional mechanical ventilation before weaning, ventilator mode, and chronic disease were not related to weaning duration. CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients requiring conventional mechanical ventilation with a diagnosis of sepsis and high initial peak inspiratory pressures may require longer conventional mechanical ventilation weaning prior to extubation. Causative factors and optimal weaning for this cohort needs further consideration.

A Relationship Between Clinical and Laboratory Characteristics in Children With Severe Scorpion Envenomation in Çukurova, Turkey.

OBJECTIVE: Scorpion stings are an important health problem in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to retrospectively examine cases of scorpion stings to evaluate their epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory features and to determine strategies that can reduce morbidity and mortality in these cases. METHODS: Scorpion stings experienced by children between 2007 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were categorized into groups based on severities of toxicities, and demographic, clinical, and laboratory features were compared between the groups. RESULTS: The mean ± SD age of the 189 patients with scorpion stings was 83.43 ± 59.62 months. There was a significant difference between the clinical stages and the age distribution of the cases (P < 0.05). White blood cell counts differed significantly between the groups (P < 0.05). There was not a significant difference in mean platelet volume and platelet distribution width between the groups, but plateletcrit and low platelet count were significantly different between stage 1 and stage 3 cases (P < 0.05). Glucose, creatinine kinase-myoglobin binding, and troponin I were also significantly different (P < 0.05). The mortality rate was 0%. CONCLUSIONS: People living in regions where scorpion stings are frequent should be informed about preventive measures against these stings, cases of scorpion stings should be monitored in appropriate centers, and staff offering care to these cases should be educated about treatment methods. In addition, treatment protocols should be determined in accordance with regions where the stings occur and studies should be performed to describe prognostic indicators.

Improved Health Outcomes from Hepatitis C Treatment Scale-Up in Spain's Prisons: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is 15 times more prevalent among persons in Spain's prisons than in the community. Recently, Spain initiated a pilot program, JAILFREE-C, to treat HCV in prisons using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Our aim was to identify a cost-effective strategy to scale-up HCV treatment in all prisons. Using a validated agent-based model, we simulated the HCV landscape in Spain's prisons considering disease transmission, screening, treatment, and prison-community dynamics. Costs and disease outcomes under status quo were compared with strategies to scale-up treatment in prisons considering prioritization (HCV fibrosis stage vs. HCV prevalence of prisons), treatment capacity (2,000/year vs. unlimited) and treatment initiation based on sentence lengths (>6 months vs. any). Scaling-up treatment by treating all incarcerated persons irrespective of their sentence length provided maximum health benefits-preventing 10,200 new cases of HCV, and 8,300 HCV-related deaths between 2019-2050; 90% deaths prevented would have occurred in the community. Compared with status quo, this strategy increased quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) by 69,700 and costs by €670 million, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €9,600/QALY. Scaling-up HCV treatment with DAAs for the entire Spanish prison population, irrespective of sentence length, is cost-effective and would reduce HCV burden.

Model to Calculate Harms and Benefits of Early vs Delayed Liver Transplantation for Patients With Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Early liver transplantation (without requiring a minimum period of sobriety) for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is controversial: many centers delay eligibility until a specific period of sobriety (such as 6 months) has been achieved. To inform ongoing debate and policy, we modeled long-term outcomes of early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with AH. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model to simulate early vs delayed liver transplantation for patients with severe AH and different amounts of alcohol use after transplantation: abstinence, slip (alcohol use followed by sobriety), or sustained use. Mortality of patients before transplantation was determined by joint-effect model (based on Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] and Lille scores). We estimated life expectancies of patients receiving early vs delayed transplantation (6-month wait before placement on the waitlist) and life years lost attributable to alcohol use after receiving the liver transplant. RESULTS: Patients offered early liver transplantation were estimated to have an average life expectancy of 6.55 life years, compared with an average life expectancy of 1.46 life years for patients offered delayed liver transplantation (4.49-fold increase). The net increase in life expectancy from offering early transplantation was highest for patients with Lille scores of 0.50-0.82 and MELD scores of 32 or more. Patients who were offered early transplantation and had no alcohol use afterward were predicted to survive 10.85 years compared with 3.62 years for patients with sustained alcohol use after transplantation (7.23 life years lost). Compared with delayed transplantation, early liver transplantation increased survival times in all simulated scenarios and combinations of Lille and MELD scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a modeling study of assumed carefully selected patients with AH, early vs delayed liver transplantation (6 months of abstinence from alcohol before transplantation) increased survival times of patients, regardless of estimated risk of sustained alcohol use after transplantation. These findings support early liver transplantation for patients with severe AH. The net increase in life expectancy was maintained in all simulated extreme scenarios but should be confirmed in prospective studies. Sustained alcohol use after transplantation significantly reduced but did not eliminate the benefits of early transplantation. Strategies are needed to prevent and treat posttransplantation use of alcohol.

Tollgate-based progression pathways of ALS patients.

OBJECTIVE: To capture ALS progression in arm, leg, speech, swallowing, and breathing segments using a disease-specific staging system, namely tollgate-based ALS staging system (TASS), where tollgates refer to a set of critical clinical events including having slight weakness in arms, needing a wheelchair, needing a feeding tube, etc. METHODS: We compiled a longitudinal dataset from medical records including free-text clinical notes of 514 ALS patients from Mayo Clinic, Rochester-MN. We derived tollgate-based progression pathways of patients up to a 1-year period starting from the first clinic visit. We conducted Kaplan-Meier analyses to estimate the probability of passing each tollgate over time for each functional segment. RESULTS: At their first clinic visit, 93%, 77%, and 60% of patients displayed some level of limb, bulbar, and breathing weakness, respectively. The proportion of patients at milder tollgate levels (tollgate level < 2) was smaller for arm and leg segments (38% and 46%, respectively) compared to others (> 65%). Patients showed non-uniform TASS pathways, i.e., the likelihood of passing a tollgate differed based on the affected segments at the initial visit. For instance, stratified by impaired segments at the initial visit, patients with limb and breathing impairment were more likely (62%) to use bi-level positive airway pressure device in a year compared to those with bulbar and breathing impairment (26%). CONCLUSION: Using TASS, clinicians can inform ALS patients about their individualized likelihood of having critical disabilities and assistive-device needs (e.g., being dependent on wheelchair/ventilation, needing walker/wheelchair or communication devices), and help them better prepare for future.

Early initiated feeding versus early reached target enteral nutrition in critically ill children: An observational study in paediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

AIM: Although early enteral nutrition (EN) is strongly associated with lower mortality in critically ill children, there is no consensus on the definition of early EN. The aim of this study was to evaluate our current practice supplying EN and to identify factors that affect both the initiation of feeding within 24 h after paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission and the adequate supply of EN in the first 48 h after PICU admission in critically ill children. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicentre, observational study in nine PICUs in Turkey. Any kind of tube feeding commenced within 24 h of PICU admission was considered early initiated feeding (EIF). Patients who received more than 25% of the estimated energy requirement via enteral feeding within 48 h of PICU admission were considered to have early reached target EN (ERTEN). RESULTS: Feeding was initiated in 47.4% of patients within 24 h after PICU admission. In many patients, initiation of feeding seems to have been delayed without an evidence-based reason. ERTEN was achieved in 43 (45.3%) of 95 patients. Patients with EIF were significantly more likely to reach ERTEN. ERTEN was an independent significant predictor of mortality (P < 0.001), along with reached target enteral caloric intake on day 2 associated with decreased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial variability among clinicians' perceptions regarding indications for delay to initiate enteral feeding in critically ill children, especially after the first 6 h of PICU admission. ERTEN, but not EIF, is associated with a significantly lower mortality rate in critically ill children.

Deriving effective vaccine allocation strategies for pandemic influenza: Comparison of an agent-based simulation and a compartmental model.

Individuals are prioritized based on their risk profiles when allocating limited vaccine stocks during an influenza pandemic. Computationally expensive but realistic agent-based simulations and fast but stylized compartmental models are typically used to derive effective vaccine allocation strategies. A detailed comparison of these two approaches, however, is often omitted. We derive age-specific vaccine allocation strategies to mitigate a pandemic influenza outbreak in Seattle by applying derivative-free optimization to an agent-based simulation and also to a compartmental model. We compare the strategies derived by these two approaches under various infection aggressiveness and vaccine coverage scenarios. We observe that both approaches primarily vaccinate school children, however they may allocate the remaining vaccines in different ways. The vaccine allocation strategies derived by using the agent-based simulation are associated with up to 70% decrease in total cost and 34% reduction in the number of infections compared to the strategies derived by using the compartmental model. Nevertheless, the latter approach may still be competitive for very low and/or very high infection aggressiveness. Our results provide insights about potential differences between the vaccine allocation strategies derived by using agent-based simulations and those derived by using compartmental models.

Intravenous levetiracetam in critically ill children.

BACKGROUND: To report the effectiveness and safety of intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) in the treatment of critically ill children with acute repetitive seizures and status epilepticus (SE) in a children's hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from children treated with IV LEV. RESULTS: The mean age of the 108 children was 69.39 ± 46.14 months (1-192 months). There were 58 (53.1%) males and 50 (46.8%) females. LEV load dose was 28.33 ± 4.60 mg/kg/dose (10-40 mg/kg). Out of these 108 patients, LEV terminated seizures in 79 (73.1%). No serious adverse effects were observed but agitation and aggression were developed in two patients, and mild erythematous rash and urticaria developed in one patient. CONCLUSION: Antiepileptic treatment of critically ill children with IV LEV seems to be effective and safe. Further study is needed to elucidate the role of IV LEV in critically ill children.

Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome: two siblings with a new mutation and dramatic therapeutic effect of high-dose riboflavin.

Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome (BVVLS) is a rare and severe neurometabolic disease. We present two siblings with BVVLS with a novel homozygous mutation in SLC52A3 (formerly C20orf54) gene. The first sibling was admitted with respiratory insufficiency and required mechanical ventilation. After administration of a high dose of riboflavin, all his clinical symptoms were resolved, which also strongly suggested the diagnosis of BVVLS. The second sibling was also found to have the same genetic mutation as her brother. Although she was symptom-free, riboflavin was initiated empirically. On follow-up, she developed no neurologic or metabolic problems with entirely normal growth and development. BVVLS should be considered in the differential diagnosis of unexplained neurologic symptoms such as polyneuropathy and respiratory insufficiency, as BVVLS and multiple acyl-CoA dehydrogenation defect have broadly overlapping symptoms. Furthermore, our cases once again suggest that with proper diagnosis and early high-dose riboflavin treatment, complete reversal of neurologic deficits in BVVLS is possible.