Assessing resilience of healthcare infrastructure exposed to COVID-19: emerging risks, resilience indicators, interdependencies and international standards.

In the moment of preparation of this paper, the world is still globally in grip of the Corona (COVID-19) crisis, and the need to understand the broader overall framework of the crisis increases. As in similar cases in the past, also with this one, the main interest is on the "first response". Fully appreciating the efforts of those risking their lives facing pandemics, this paper tries to identify the main elements of the larger, possibly global, framework, supported by international standards, needed to deal with new (emerging) risks resulting from threats like Corona and assess the resilience of systems affected. The paper proposes that future solutions should include a number of new elements, related to both risk and resilience. That should include broadening the scope of attention, currently focused onto preparation and response phases, to the phases of "understanding risks", including emerging risks, and transformation and adaptation. The paper suggests to use resilience indicators in this process. The proposed approach has been applied in different cases involving critical infrastructures in Europe (energy supply, water supply, transportation, etc., exposed to various threats), including the health system in Austria. The detailed, indicator-based, resilience analysis included mapping resilience, resilience stress-testing, visualization, etc., showing, already before the COVID-19, the resilience (stress-testing) limits of the infrastructures. A simpler (57 indicator based) analysis has, then been done for 11 countries (including Austria). The paper links these results with the options available in the area of policies, standards, guidelines and tools (such as the RiskRadar), with focus on interdependencies and global standards-especially the new ISO 31,050, linking emerging risks and resilience.

Drug- not carrier-dependent haematological and biochemical changes in a repeated dose study of cyclosporine encapsulated polyester nano- and micro-particles: size does not matter.

Biodegradable nanoparticles are being considered more often as drug carriers to address pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic issues, yet nano-product safety has not been systematically proven. In this study, haematological, biochemical and histological parameters were examined on 28 day daily dosing of rats with nano- or micro-particle encapsulated cyclosporine (CsA) to confirm if any changes observed were drug or carrier dependent. CsA encapsulated poly(lactide-co-glycolide) [PLGA] nano- (nCsA) and micro-particles (mCsA) were prepared by emulsion techniques. CsA (15, 30, 45 mg/kg) were administered by oral gavage to Sprague Dawley (SD) rats over 28 days. Haematological and biochemical metrics were followed with tissue histology performed on sacrifice. Whether presented as nCsA or mCsA, 45 mg/kg dose caused significant loss of body weight and lowered food consumption compared to untreated control. Across the doses, both nCsA and mCsA produce significant decreases in lymphocyte numbers compared to controls, commensurate with the proprietary product, Neoral(®) 15. Dosing with nCsA showed higher serum drug levels than mCsA presumably owing to the smaller particle size facilitating absorption. The treatment had no noticeable effects on inflammatory/oxidative stress markers or antioxidant enzyme levels, except an increase in ceruloplasmin (CP) levels for high dose nCsA/mCsA group. Further, only subtle, sub-lethal changes were observed in histology of nCsA/mCsA treated rat organs. Blank (drug-free) particles did not induce changes in the parameters studied. Therefore, it is extremely important that the encapsulated drug in the nano-products is considered when safety of the overall product is assessed rather than relying on just the particle size. This study has addressed some concerns surrounding particulate drug delivery, demonstrating safe delivery of CsA whilst achieving augmented serum concentrations.

Acute WNT signalling activation perturbs differentiation within the adult stomach and rapidly leads to tumour formation.

A role for WNT signalling in gastric carcinogenesis has been suggested due to two major observations. First, patients with germline mutations in adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) are susceptible to stomach polyps and second, in gastric cancer, WNT activation confers a poor prognosis. However, the functional significance of deregulated WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis and cancer is still unclear. In this study we have addressed this by investigating the immediate effects of WNT signalling activation within the stomach epithelium. We have specifically activated the WNT signalling pathway within the mouse adult gastric epithelium via deletion of either glycogen synthase kinase 3 (GSK3) or APC or via expression of a constitutively active ß-catenin protein. WNT pathway deregulation dramatically affects stomach homoeostasis at very short latencies. In the corpus, there is rapid loss of parietal cells with fundic gland polyp (FGP) formation and adenomatous change, which are similar to those observed in familial adenomatous polyposis. In the antrum, adenomas occur from 4 days post-WNT activation. Taken together, these data show a pivotal role for WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis, FGP formation and adenomagenesis. Loss of the parietal cell population and corresponding FGP formation, an early event in gastric carcinogenesis, as well as antral adenoma formation are immediate effects of nuclear ß-catenin translocation and WNT target gene expression. Furthermore, our inducible murine model will permit a better understanding of the molecular changes required to drive tumourigenesis in the stomach.

Diagnostic work-up of carcinoma of unknown primary: from immunohistochemistry to molecular profiling.

Carcinoma of unknown primary (CUP) remains a common and challenging clinical problem. The aim of diagnostic work-up in CUP is to classify as specifically as possible the cancer affecting the patient, according to the broad tumour type, subtype and, where possible, site of origin. This classification currently best predicts patient outcome and guides optimal treatment. a stepwise approach to diagnostic work-up is described. although pathology is based on morphology, the assessment of tissue-specific genes through immunohistochemistry (IHC) substantially helps tumour classification at each diagnostic step. For IHC in CUP, recent improvements include more standardised approaches and marker panels plus new markers. Tissue-specific genes are also being used in CUP work-up through molecular profiling. Large-scale profiles of hundreds of tumours of different types have been generated, compared and used to generate diagnostic algorithms. Commercial tests for CUP classification have been developed at the mRNa and microRNA and (miRNA) levels and validated in metastatic tumours and CUPs. While currently optimal pathology and IHC remain the 'gold standard' for CUP diagnostic work-up, and full clinical correlation is vital, the molecular tests appear to perform well: in the main diagnostic challenge of undifferentiated or poorly differentiated tumours, molecular profiling performs as well as or better than IHC.

Cancer of unknown primary: progress in the search for improved and rapid diagnosis leading toward superior patient outcomes.

This paper explores the enigma of cancer of unknown primary (CUP) in relation to rapidly improving molecular diagnostic approaches. It is based on the first global collaboration meeting on improving research and clinical outcomes in CUP organized by the CUP Foundation. We review the difficulties of classifying this widely heterogeneous disease and the available diagnostic and pathological evaluative techniques, focusing on molecular profiling. Retrospective studies in CUP patients are shown to provide indirect validation of the accuracy of several platforms of gene expression profiling assays that may identify CUP subsets that respond favorably to active chemotherapy regimens. This review concludes that the recent major improvements in pathologic and molecular diagnostics, coupled with new improved therapies for several specific advanced solid tumors, need to be harmonized with more evidence from clinical-translational trials. All patients with CUP could thus be appropriately managed without the constant uncertainty that has previously severely hampered patient care and optimal outcomes. The longer-term objective is to understand the biology of highly metastatic disease, leading to the development of future global therapeutic programs. Current clinical studies, such as CUP-ONE, will address some of these issues.

The ErbB signalling pathway: protein expression and prognostic value in epithelial ovarian cancer.

Ovarian cancer is the most frequent cause of death from gynaecological cancer in the Western world. Current prognostic factors do not allow reliable prediction of response to chemotherapy and survival for individual ovarian cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and HER-2/neu are frequently expressed in ovarian cancer but their prognostic value remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the expression and prognostic value of EGFR, EGFR variant III (EGFRvIII), HER-2/neu and important downstream signalling components in a large series of epithelial ovarian cancer patients. Immunohistochemical staining of EGFR, pEGFR, EGFRvIII, Her-2/neu, PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10), total and phosphorylated AKT (pAKT) and phosphorylated ERK (pERK) was performed in 232 primary tumours using the tissue microarray platform and related to clinicopathological characteristics and survival. In addition, EGFRvIII expression was determined in 45 tumours by RT-PCR. Our results show that negative PTEN immunostaining was associated with stage I/II disease (P=0.006), non-serous tumour type (P=0.042) and in multivariate analysis with a longer progression-free survival (P=0.015). Negative PTEN staining also predicted improved progression-free survival in patients with grade III or undifferentiated serous carcinomas (P=0.011). Positive pAKT staining was associated with advanced-stage disease (P=0.006). Other proteins were expressed only at low levels, and were not associated with any clinicopathological parameter or survival. None of the tumours were positive for EGFRvIII. In conclusion, our results indicate that tumours showing negative PTEN staining could represent a subgroup of ovarian carcinomas with a relatively favourable prognosis.

Loss of MSH2 protein expression is a risk factor in early stage cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Loss of mismatch repair (MMR) gene expression has been associated with fewer metastases and improved prognosis in various tumour types. AIMS: To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of loss of MMR protein MSH2 in early stage cervical cancer. METHODS: Specimens from 218 consecutive patients with early stage, surgically treated cervical cancer were analysed. Median age was 42 years (interquartile range 35-53). International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages were IB1 (57%), IB2 (25%) and IIA (18%). Histology was 70% squamous cell, 6% adenosquamous and 24% adenocarcinoma. Pelvic lymph node metastasis was present in 66 (30%) patients. Median follow-up was 5.2 years (interquartile range 2.5-7.9). Tissue microarrays (TMAs) were constructed containing three cores of paraffin-embedded tumour per case. MSH2 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry on TMAs and full sections. RESULTS: In TMAs MSH2 expression could be analysed in 184/218 (84%) tumours. Loss of MSH2 was observed in 58/184 (32%) tumours, with a moderately strong concordance between TMAs and full sections (kappa = 0.47). In tumours with loss of MSH2, pelvic lymph node metastasis and cancer invasion beyond 10 mm were more frequent (48% vs 25%, and 59% vs 37%, respectively). However, loss of MSH2 expression was not related to recurrence or survival. CONCLUSION: TMAs are powerful tools for high throughput screening of biological markers for prognostic value in cervical cancer. Absence of MSH2 expression is associated with a high-risk profile in early stage cervical cancer, but does not predict lymph node status with sufficient accuracy to be used in the clinic.

Translation efficiencies of the 5'-untranslated region of genotypes 1a and 3a in hepatitis C infected patients.

Differences between the translation efficiencies mediated by the 5'-untranslated regions (5'-UTR) of genotypes (gt) 1 and 3 of hepatitis C virus (HCV) have been reported but it is unknown if such differences are biologically significant. The 5'-UTR was sequenced from paired serum and liver samples from 26 patients with chronic HCV hepatitis (11 gt 1a, 15 gt 3a). To determine whether there is a consistent difference between gts 1a and 3a translation efficiency, 5'-UTR (nt 1-356) and 5'-UTR plus core (nt 1-914) sequences were cloned into bicistronic, luciferase-encoding constructs and relative translation efficiencies (RTE) measured in Huh7 cells and BHK cells. The relationships between viral load, liver biopsy Ishak scores, degree of steatosis and translational activity of the patient-derived nucleotide sequence were examined. There were no differences in 5'-UTR sequence between serum and corresponding liver samples. The mean RTE of 5'-UTR sequences from gt 3a isolates was not significantly different from gt 1a whether or not the core encoding sequence was included, although inclusion of core led to a reduction in RTE by 93-97% for both genotypes. No correlation was found between RTE and serum HCV RNA levels, liver steatosis, inflammation, or fibrosis. However, a significant correlation was found between the presence of steatosis and infection with HCV gt 3a. It is concluded that there was no difference in translation efficiencies of 5'-UTRs from patients infected with gts 1a and 3a, and translation activity measured in vitro does not correlate with viral load or severity of liver disease.

Factors influencing p53 expression in ovarian cancer as a biomarker of clinical outcome in multicentre studies.

The prognostic impact of p53 immunostaining in a large series of tumours from epithelial ovarian cancer patients in a two-centre study was analysed. The study population (n=476) comprised of a retrospective series of 188 patients (Dutch cohort) and a prospective series of 288 patients (Scottish cohort) enrolled in clinical trials. P53 expression was determined by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. Association with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Aberrant p53 overexpression was significantly associated with PFS in the Dutch and Scottish cohorts (P=0.001 and 0.038, respectively), but not with OS in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, when the two groups were combined and account taken of clinical factors and country of origin of the cohort, p53 expression was not an independent prognostic predictor of PFS or OS. In this well-powered study with minimal methodological variability, p53 immunostaining is not an independent prognostic marker of clinical outcome in epithelial ovarian cancer. The data demonstrate the importance of methodological standardisation, particularly defining patient characteristics and survival end-point data, if biomarker data from multicentre studies are to be combined.

Gastric histology, serological markers and age as predictors of gastric acid secretion in patients infected with Helicobacter pylori.

BACKGROUND: Acid secretion is intimately associated with most upper gastrointestinal diseases. Helicobacter pylori infection is a major environmental factor modifying acid secretion. AIM: To study the association between the pattern of H pylori gastritis and gastric secretory function in a large number of subjects without specific upper gastrointestinal disease. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Maximal acid output (MAO) was measured in 255 patients with dyspepsia showing normal endoscopy. Activity and severity of gastritis, atrophy and H pylori infection were assessed in body and antral biopsies. The correlations of histological parameters as well as age, sex, height, weight, smoking, serum gastrin, pepsinogen I and II, and their ratio with MAO were determined. Multiple linear regression was used to show the best possible predictors of MAO. RESULTS: Negative relationships: Body atrophy and body-combined (active and chronic) inflammatory scores showed a potent inverse correlation with MAO (correlation coefficients (CC) 0.59 and 0.50, respectively). Body:antral chronic gastritis ratio and body:antral combined inflammation ratio (both with CC = 0.49) and age (CC = 0.44) were also inversely correlated with MAO. Intestinal metaplasia at both antral and body sites had negative relationships with acid output with CC = 0.23 and 0.20, respectively. Positive relationships: Serum pepsinogen I, body H pylori density:combined inflammation ratio and pepsinogen I:II ratio with CC of 0.38, 0.38 and 0.30, respectively, correlated with MAO. The H pylori density: combined inflammation of both antrum and body positively correlated with MAO (CC = 0.29 and 0.38, respectively). Male sex and patient height also positively correlated with acid output. Modelling showed that body combined inflammatory score, body atrophy, age and serum pepsinogen I are independent predictors of acid output (R(2) = 0.62). CONCLUSION: Combination of body gastritis, body atrophy, age and serum pepsinogen I can be used as predictors of acid-secretory state in populations infected with H pylori.

Polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system and the severity of fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

SUMMARY: Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection vary in their rates of fibrosis progression. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) regulates fibrosis. Polymorphisms in the genes of the RAS may contribute to the outcome of renal and cardiovascular disease. We studied four RAS gene polymorphisms in 195 patients with chronic HCV infection. Patients were grouped by Ishak stage of fibrosis on liver biopsy: group 1 (fibrosis score 0 or 1; n = 97), group 2 (fibrosis score 2 or 3; n = 73) and group 3 (fibrosis score 4-6; n = 25). Polymorphisms of the angiotensinogen (AGT) gene (M235T and AT-6), the angiotensin I converting enzyme gene and the type 1 angiotensin II receptor gene were assayed. There was no difference in the distribution of these polymorphisms of the RAS between the fibrosis groups. There did not appear to be any increased prevalence of fibrosis if two or even three of the polymorphisms associated with increased RAS effect were present. On multivariate analysis factors significantly associated with fibrosis were necroinflammatory activity (P < 0.001) and age (P < 0.001). No association was identified between these four RAS polymorphisms and fibrosis in chronic HCV infection.

Predictive value of thymidylate synthase and dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase protein expression on survival in adjuvantly treated stage III colon cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The predictive value of thymidylate synthase (TS) and dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) expression on long-term survival by influencing 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) effect were determined in primary tumours and node metastases of stage III colon cancer patients treated adjuvantly with 5-FU regimens (n=391). The effect of TP 53 mutation status, which is thought to be functionally linked to TS inhibition, was also examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: TS and DPD protein expression was determined by immunohistochemical analysis using tissue microarrays of these colon tumours. Two hundred and twenty tumours had already been screened in a previous study for TP 53 mutations. RESULTS: Low TS protein levels in primary stage III colon tumours appeared to be associated with mucinous histology and low DPD protein levels with young age at time of randomisation. Concordance between TS and DPD expression in primary and metastatic tumours was low. No associations were found between disease-free survival (DFS) and TS or DPD protein levels. When stratified by TP 53 mutation status DFS did not differ with TS expression. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of TS and DPD proteins is not predictive for survival in patients with stage III colon cancer treated adjuvantly with 5-FU regimens. TS protein levels did not alter the effect of TP 53 mutation status.

A tale of two sisters.

Hereditary haemochromatosis is the most common inherited disorder in white populations, whereas non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is becoming the most common reason for referral for investigation of abnormal liver function tests (LFTs). This report describes two sisters, from similar environments, who were referred to the clinic after being found to be C282Y homozygotes and to have abnormal LFTs. One sister had developed features of haemochromatosis and the other had developed NASH. These cases illustrate the potential non-penetrance of HFE gene mutations and the need to investigate abnormal LFTs fully, even when there is a positive genetic test at the outset.

Hepatic granulomas: a 10 year single centre experience.

BACKGROUND: Epithelioid granulomas have been reported in 2-15% of unselected liver biopsies, with numerous underlying aetiologies described. However, all UK series were reported before identification of hepatitis C virus (HCV). AIM: To evaluate the current aetiologies of hepatic granulomas and to assess the prognosis for the "idiopathic" group, in which all investigations for a recognised cause were negative or normal. METHODS: A retrospective review of patient case notes between 1991 and 2001; all patients who had a liver biopsy at Glasgow Royal Infirmary revealing epithelioid granulomas had their case notes and liver biopsies reviewed and a standard proforma completed. RESULTS: Over the study period, 1662 liver biopsies were performed. Hepatic granulomas were found in 63. Of those identified, 47 were female, with a mean age of 42 years (range, 17-81). Underlying aetiologies were as follows: primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC; 23.8%), sarcoidosis (11.1%), idiopathic (11.1%), drug induced (9.5%), HCV (9.5%), PBC/autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) overlap (6.3%), Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3%), AIH (4.8%), tuberculosis (4.8%), resolving biliary obstruction (3.2%), and other single miscellaneous causes (9.5%). Of the seven patients with idiopathic hepatic granulomas, one was lost to follow up, one died of stroke, and the remaining five were well with no liver related morbidity at a mean follow up of 6.2 years. CONCLUSIONS: The aetiology of hepatic granulomas is broad ranging, with HCV an important cause in this population. Despite extensive investigations, a 10-15% of patients still had "idiopathic" hepatic granulomas. However, the prognosis for this last group appears to be excellent.

Improvement in cholestasis associated with total parenteral nutrition after treatment with an antibody against tumour necrosis factor alpha.

BACKGROUND: Many patients receiving long-term total parenteral nutrition (TPN) develop liver disease; cholestasis is common and may be severe. Antitumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) antibodies have recently been used in order to treat Crohn's disease, but their effect on cholestasis in humans has not been previously described. CASE REPORT: A 45-year-old woman had complicated Crohn's disease with multiple fistulae and only 1 m of residual small bowel. She had been receiving TPN for 2.5 years when she developed cholestasis which worsened despite adjustments to her TPN regimen. Infliximab, an anti-TNFalpha antibody, was given with the aim of treating an enterocutaneous fistula, but it also produced a marked biochemical and histological improvement in the TPN-related cholestasis. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TNFalpha antibodies appeared in this case to improve TPN-related cholestasis. This implies that TNFalpha may play an important role in the development of this condition.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: a common cause of progressive chronic liver injury?

AIM: To investigate the natural history of patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis by means of a prospective histological study. METHODS: One thousand five hundred and seventy one patients underwent liver biopsy at the Western Infirmary in Glasgow during the 10 year period 1985 to 1994. All biopsies were reported by a single pathologist: 62 were confirmed as having non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and prospective follow up was conducted in 1999. Repeat liver biopsy was carried out where appropriate to assess disease progression. RESULTS: Initial biopsy scores for the 62 patients (20 men; mean age at biopsy, 52 years) showed a mean of 1.85, 1.39, and 0.5 for necroinflammation, fibrosis, and iron stores, respectively. Forty six were traceable and invited for review, and 26 attended (six men; mean age at initial biopsy, 49.9 years) at a mean of 8.7 years after the initial liver biopsy. No patients had symptoms or signs of chronic liver disease. Four patients had normal liver function tests, one had cirrhosis; the remaining 21 were invited to have a repeat biopsy. Seven patients agreed, a mean 8.2 years after the initial biopsy, and repeat biopsy scores showed no significant difference over this time period, with mean scores of 1.71 (initial score, 2.14), 1.43 (initial score, 0.71), and 0.14 (initial score, 0) for necroinflammation, fibrosis, and iron stores, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this series of patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, with a mean clinical follow up of 8.7 years, and a histological follow up of 8.2 years, there was no evidence of progressive chronic liver injury.