ABSTRACT
We aimed to assess differences in the summer excess of mortality by COVID-19 history using data from the mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 4% excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019. A mortality rate ratio of 1.59 (95%CI 1.39-1.82) for COVID-19 survivors compared to naive, was found. Both were higher in people aged [≥]75 years. During the July heat wave, the excess for COVID-19 survivors decreased and disappeared when excluding people living in nursing homes. Funding statementThis study was partially supported by the Italian Ministry of Health -CCM 2020 - "Sorveglianza epidemiologica e controllo del COVID-19 in aree urbane metropolitane e per il contenimento della circolazione del Sars-CoV-2 nella popolazione immigrata in Italia" and by the Ricerca Corrente 2023 HighlightsO_LIthe excess of mortality in COVID-19 survivors is not exacerbated by heatwaves C_LIO_LIan excess of mortality during the whole summer in COVID-19 survivors aged over 75 suggest that no harvesting effect is appreciable in the older population that survived COVID-19 C_LIO_LIFor COVID-19 survivors aged over 75, a lower mortality than the naive population was observed only during the July heat wave when we stratified by residency C_LI
ABSTRACT
ObjectivesTo describe the age- and sex-specific prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19) and its prognostic factors. DesignPopulation-based prospective cohort study on archive data. SettingPreventive services and hospital care in the province of Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy. ParticipantsAll 2653 symptomatic patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from February 27 to April 2, 2020 in the province of Reggio Emilia. Main outcome measuresHospitalization and death up to April 2, 2020. ResultsFemales had higher prevalence of infection than males below age 50 (2.61 vs. 1.84 {per thousand}), but lower in older ages (16.49 vs. 20.86 {per thousand} over age 80). Case fatality rate reached 20.7% (22/106) in cases with more than 4 weeks follow up. After adjusting for age and comorbidities, men had a higher risk of hospitalization (hazard ratio (HR) 1.4 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.2 to 1.6) and of death (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1). Patients over age 80 compared to < age 50 had HR 7.1 (95% CI 5.4 to 9.3) and HR 27.8 (95% CI 12.5 to 61.7) for hospitalization and death, respectively. Immigrants had a higher risk of hospitalization (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.81) than Italians and a similar risk of death. Risk of hospitalization and of death were higher in patients with heart failure (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1and HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.2, respectively), arrhythmia (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.9 and HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3 to 2.5, respectively), dementia (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.8 and HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.8, respectively), ischemic heart disease (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.7 and HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.5, respectively), diabetes (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9 and HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2, respectively), and hypertensions(HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.6 and HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1, respectively), while COPD increased the risk of hospitalization (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.5) but not of death (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.7). Previous use of ACE inhibitors has no effect on risk of death (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.34) ConclusionsThe mechanisms underlying these associations are mostly unknown. A deeper understanding of the causal chain from infection, disease onset, and immune response to outcomes may explain how these prognostic factors act.
