ABSTRACT
This paper uses concurrent linear regression analysis approach to describe the progression of COVID 19 pandemic in India during the period 15 March 2020 through 15 May 2021. The approach provides very good fit to the daily reported new confirmed cases of the disease. The paper suggests that, based on the parameter of the model, an early warning system may be developed and institutionalised to undertaken necessary measures to control the spread of the disease, thereby controlling the pandemic.
ABSTRACT
This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown have resulted in a spike in the reported confirmed cases. The analysis also suggests that if the current trend continues, in the immediate future, then the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country is likely to increase to 21 thousand by 15 June 2020 whereas the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 will increase to around 422 thousand. The analysis calls for a population-wide testing approach to check the increase in the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19.
