Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.

We present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of 'excess' zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak. Analyses of this kind may prove useful to informing decisions related to optimal control measures for potential future FMD outbreaks as well as other acute epidemics such as FMD.

Using the choice experiment method in the design of breeding goals in dairy sheep.

Market failures are the main cause of poor acknowledgement of the true impact of functional sheep traits on the management and economic performance of farms, which results in their omission from the breeding goal or the estimation of non-representative economic weights in the breeding goal. Consequently, stated-preference non-market valuation techniques, which recently emerged to mitigate these problems, are necessary to estimate economic weights for functional traits. The purpose of this paper is to present an example of the use of a choice experiment (CE) in the estimation of economic weights for sheep traits for the design of breeding goals. Through a questionnaire survey the preferences of sheep farmers are recorded and their marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for 10 production and functional traits is estimated. Data are analysed using random parameter logit models. The results reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity for fertility, adaptability to grazing and resistance to disease, thus highlighting that these traits are appreciated differently by farmers, because their needs are diverse. Positive MWTP is found for Greek breeds, high milk production and lambs with low fat deposition, for which there is high demand in Greek markets. On the other hand, MWTP for the cheese-making ability of milk is negative, stemming from the fact that sheep milk prices in Greece are not formulated according to milk composition. In addition, farmers seem to understand differences between udder shapes and attribute different values to various types. This application of the CE method indicates that communication channels among farmers and breeders should be established in order to enhance market performance and to provide orientation to the design of breeding programmes. Non-market valuation can be used complementarily to market valuation techniques, in order to provide accurate estimates for production and functional traits.

Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.

Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates. We implement Bayesian stochastic regression models which, in addition to various explanatory variables like seasonal and environmental/meteorological factors, also contain serial correlation structure based on variants of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We take a predictive view in model selection by utilizing deviance-based measures. The results indicate that seasonality and the number of infected farms are important predictors for sheep pox incidence.

Technical indicators of economic performance in dairy sheep farming.

In this study, the level of technical efficiency of 58 sheep farms rearing the Chios breed in Greece was measured through the application of the stochastic frontier analysis method. A Translog stochastic frontier production function was estimated using farm accounting data of Chios sheep farms and the impact of various socio-demographic and biophysical factors on the estimated efficiency of the farms was evaluated. The farms were classified into efficiency groups on the basis of the estimated level of efficiency and a technical and economic descriptive analysis was applied in order to illustrate an indicative picture of their structure and productivity. The results of the stochastic frontier model indicate that there are substantial production inefficiencies among the Chios sheep farms and that these farms could increase their production through the improvement of technical efficiency, whereas the results of the inefficiency effects model reveal that the farm-specific explanatory factors can partly explain the observed efficiency differentials. The measurement of technical inefficiency and the detection of its determinants can be used to form the basis of policy recommendations that could contribute to the development of the sector.

Examination of the impact of animal and dairy science journals based on traditional and newly developed bibliometric indices.

Using traditional bibliometric indices such as the well-known journal impact factor (IFAC), as well as other more recently developed measures like the (journal) h-index and modifications, we assessed the impact of most prolific scientific journals in the field of animal and dairy science. To achieve this end, we performed a detailed investigation on the evaluation of journals quality, using a total of 50 journals selected from the category of "Agriculture, Dairy & Animal Science" included in the Thomson Reuters' (formerly Institute of Scientific Information, ISI) Web of Science. Our analysis showed that among the top journals in the field are the Journal of Dairy Research, the Journal of Dairy Science, and the Journal of Animal Science. In particular, the Journal of Animal Science, the most productive and frequently cited journal, has shown rapid development, especially in recent years. The majority of the top-tier, highly cited articles are those associated with the description of statistical methodology and the standard chemical analytical methodologies.

Microbiological quality and related factors of sheep milk produced in farms of NE Greece.

Sheep herds are a significant capital of dairy industry in Greece, but as dairy farming becomes more complex and intense the need to provide assistance to dairy producers on milk quality is critical. In this study, the quality of raw milk produced in sheep farms of NE Greece was surveyed and the role of various factors was explored. In total, 21 dairy ewe's farms from the regions of Xanthi and Evros, in the north-eastern Greece were monitored. Milk samples were sampled after the morning milking every 15 days throughout the dairy period (March-June). For the study, a questionnaire was also filled by personal interview with the owners in order to collect information about herd characteristics, health status, handling practices etc. From each farm, air was also sampled for microbiological analysis. Milk samples were examined for chemical components: fat content, protein, lactose, non-fat dry matter (NFDM) and somatic cells count (SCC). Microbiological examination involved the estimation of Total Bacterial Counts (TBC), coliform count (CC), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus sp., and preliminary incubation count (PIC). The possible correlation among different bacterial species and their interaction with SCC and chemical components of milk was also considered. It was examined whether farm management practices could influence the hygiene and the quality of milk. Our results show that as an average TBCs were 5.48 log cfu/ml, SCC: 6.05 log cells/ml, CC: 4.49 log cfu/ml, S. aureus: 3.94 log cfu/ml, Streptococcus sp.: 4.95 log cfu/ml and PIC: 5.7 log cfu/ml. The mean fat, protein, lactose and NFDM were 6.17%, 5.28%, 4.73% and 10.95% respectively. The study revealed significant positive correlation between TBC and PIC (0.825), while SCC was marginally positive correlated with protein and NFDM. No statistically significant correlations observed among SCC with any of the bacterial species. Herd size and farm management practices had considerable influence on SCC and bacterial species.

Effect of vitamin E nutritional supplementation on the pathological changes induced in the ileum of rabbits by experimental infection with enteropathogenic Escherichia coli.

A well-established rabbit model of enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) disease was used to examine whether vitamin E (VE) nutritional supplementation had an effect on the pathological changes induced in the bowel by EPEC. Quantitative methods were used to evaluate the influence of VE on bacterial colonization, intestinal mucosal architecture and inflammation, and intestinal epithelial proliferation and apoptosis. VE did not affect EPEC colonization and did not give significant protection against EPEC-induced changes and diarrhoea. Although VE had no effect on the EPEC-related increase of enterocyte apoptosis, it clearly contributed to an acceleration of epithelial cell proliferation in the ileal crypts. This finding may explain why ileal morphometry undertaken in this study showed that VE ameliorated somewhat the effects of EPEC on intestinal mucosal architecture. Quantitative studies on inflammatory cells in the intestinal mucosa revealed that VE nutritional supplementation resulted in an increased neutrophilic and mononuclear inflammatory cell response to EPEC infection, which did not contribute, however, to the clearance of infection.