ABSTRACT
Environmental variables in a malaria geographic information system (GIS) database were analysed to discriminate between governorates at high and low risk of malaria. Only Fayoum governorate was categorized as a high risk area for malaria during the last 2 decades. Discriminant models correctly classified 96.3% of the risk categories and indicated that the most important predictor of risk is hydrogeology. Further GIS spatial analysis indicated that the high malaria risk in Fayoum is associated with a unique environmental envelope of biotic (presence of both efficient malaria vectors) and abiotic (hydrogeology and soil) variables. Recommendations for surveillance and control are discussed.
Subject(s)
Geographic Information Systems/organization & administration , Malaria/epidemiology , Risk Assessment/organization & administration , Agriculture , Animals , Anopheles/classification , Anopheles/parasitology , Climate , Demography , Discriminant Analysis , Egypt , Epidemiologic Methods , Fresh Water , Humans , Insect Vectors/classification , Insect Vectors/parasitology , Malaria/etiology , Malaria/parasitology , Malaria/transmission , Needs Assessment , Population Surveillance , Predictive Value of Tests , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Socioeconomic Factors , Soil , UrbanizationABSTRACT
Environmental variables in a malaria geographic information system [GIS] database were analysed to discriminate between governorates at high and low risk of malaria. Only Fayoum governorate was categorized as a high risk area for malaria during the last 2 decades. Discriminant models correctly classified 96.3% of the risk categories and indicated that the most important predictor of risk is hydrogeology. Further GIS spatial analysis indicated that the high malaria risk in Fayoum is associated with a unique environmental envelope of biotic [presence of both efficient malaria vectors] and abiotic [hydrogeology and soil] variables. Recommendations for surveillance and control are discussed
