ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: This study aims to review the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology assessments to gain insights into the implementation of treatment effect (TE) waning, whereby the hazard or survival in an assessed technology converges to that of the comparator. This analysis aims to contribute to inform future guidance in this area. METHODS: Technology appraisals published October 20, 2021 to September 20, 2023 were reviewed and data extracted on TE waning circumstances, methods, and rationale to compile a database based on 3 research questions: When are TE waning assumptions used? What methods are used? Why have the company/Evidence Assessment Group/committee preferred these methods? RESULTS: Both the evidence assessment group/company and the committee included TE waning assumptions in 28 appraisals. There was no pattern of waning assumptions between shorter (<20 years) and longer (>20 years) time horizons. The most prominent time point for applying waning assumptions was at 5 years, with 30 out of 59 (50.8%) of the methods applied used 5 years. Stopping rules were used in 21 out of 30 (70.1%) of the appraisals for which the committee included waning, and waning assumptions were used more in oncology. The most common reason given for including TE waning assumptions was precedent from prior appraisals. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable heterogeneity existed in both the methods used and justifications given for TE waning assumptions. This variability poses a risk of inconsistent decision making. Reliance on past appraisals emphasizes the necessity to advocate for evidence-driven approaches and underscores the demand for guidance on suitable methods for incorporating assumptions.
ABSTRACT
MicroRNA-208a is a cardiac specific oligo-nucleotide. We aimed at investigating the ability of microRNA-208a to diagnose myocardial infarction and predict the outcome of primary percutaneuos coronary angiography (PCI). Patients (n = 75) presented by chest pain were recruited into two groups. Group 1 (n = 40) had ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and underwent primary PCI: 21 patients had sufficient reperfusion and 19 had no-reflow. Group 2 (n = 35) had negative cardiac troponins (cTns). Plasma microRNA-208a expression was assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction and patients were followed for occurrence of in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE). MicroRNA-208a could diagnose of MI (AUC of 0.926). After primary PCI, it was superior to cTnT in prediction of no-reflow (AUC difference of 0.231, P = 0.0233) and MACE (AUC difference of 0.367, P = 0.0053). Accordingly, circulating levels of miR-208a can be used as a diagnostic marker of MI and a predictor of no-reflow and in-hospital MACE. Graphical abstract Receiver operating curve analysis of no-reflow prediction of miRNA208a, CK-MB and hs-Troponin T. MicroRNA-208a shows significantly higher prediction of no-reflow as compared to routine cardiac biomarkers.
