Towards an Accurate Estimation of COVID-19 Cases in Kazakhstan: Back-Casting and Capture-Recapture Approaches.

Background and Objectives: Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has emerged as the most devastating syndemic of the 21st century, with worrisome and sustained consequences for the entire society. Despite the relative success of vaccination programs, the global threat of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is still present and further efforts are needed for its containment and control. Essential for its control and containment is getting closer to understanding the actual extent of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Material and Methods: We present a model based on the mortality data of Kazakhstan for the estimation of the underlying epidemic dynamic-with both the lag time from infection to death and the infection fatality rate. For the estimation of the actual number of infected individuals in Kazakhstan, we used both back-casting and capture-recapture methods. Results: Our results suggest that despite the increased testing capabilities in Kazakhstan, official case reporting undercounts the number of infections by at least 60%. Even though our count of deaths may be either over or underestimated, our methodology could be a more accurate approach for the following: the estimation of the actual magnitude of the pandemic; aiding the identification of different epidemiological values; and reducing data bias. Conclusions: For optimal epidemiological surveillance and control efforts, our study may lead to an increased awareness of the effect of COVID-19 in this region and globally, and aid in the implementation of more effective screening and diagnostic measures.

Physiologic Mechanisms of Type II Diabetes Mellitus Remission Following Bariatric Surgery: a Meta-analysis and Clinical Implications.

INTRODUCTION: As obesity prevalence grows in the USA, metabolic syndrome is becoming increasingly more common. Current theories propose that insulin resistance is responsible for the hypertension, dyslipidemia, type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and low HDL that comprise metabolic syndrome. Bariatric surgery is one potential treatment, and its effects include permanently altering the patient's physiology and glucose regulation. Consequently, patients with T2DM who undergo bariatric surgery often experience tighter glucose control or remission of their T2DM altogether. This meta-analysis aims to explore the physiologic mechanisms underlying T2DM remission following bariatric surgery, which demonstrates effects that could lead to expansion of the NIH criteria for bariatric surgery candidates. METHODS: A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed and Scopus. Two independent reviewers conducted title, abstract, and full text review of papers that met inclusion criteria. Papers that measured hormone levels before and after bariatric surgery were included in the meta-analysis. Weighted means and standard deviations were calculated for preoperative and postoperative GLP-1, GIP, ghrelin, and glucagon. RESULTS: Total postprandial GLP-1 increased following bariatric surgery, which correlated with improvements in measures of glycemic control. Fasting GLP-1, fasting GIP, total postprandial GIP, total fasting ghrelin, and fasting glucagon all decreased, but all changes in hormones evaluated failed to reach statistical significance. Studies also demonstrated changes in hepatic and peripancreatic fat, inflammatory markers, miRNA, and gut microbiota following bariatric surgery. CONCLUSION: While this meta-analysis sheds light on possible mechanisms, further studies are necessary to determine the dominant mechanism underlying remission of T2DM following bariatric surgery.