ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Risk factors for progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to severe disease or death are underexplored in U.S. cohorts. OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors on hospital admission that are predictive of severe disease or death from COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Five hospitals in the Maryland and Washington, DC, area. PATIENTS: 832 consecutive COVID-19 admissions from 4 March to 24 April 2020, with follow-up through 27 June 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Patient trajectories and outcomes, categorized by using the World Health Organization COVID-19 disease severity scale. Primary outcomes were death and a composite of severe disease or death. RESULTS: Median patient age was 64 years (range, 1 to 108 years); 47% were women, 40% were Black, 16% were Latinx, and 21% were nursing home residents. Among all patients, 131 (16%) died and 694 (83%) were discharged (523 [63%] had mild to moderate disease and 171 [20%] had severe disease). Of deaths, 66 (50%) were nursing home residents. Of 787 patients admitted with mild to moderate disease, 302 (38%) progressed to severe disease or death: 181 (60%) by day 2 and 238 (79%) by day 4. Patients had markedly different probabilities of disease progression on the basis of age, nursing home residence, comorbid conditions, obesity, respiratory symptoms, respiratory rate, fever, absolute lymphocyte count, hypoalbuminemia, troponin level, and C-reactive protein level and the interactions among these factors. Using only factors present on admission, a model to predict in-hospital disease progression had an area under the curve of 0.85, 0.79, and 0.79 at days 2, 4, and 7, respectively. LIMITATION: The study was done in a single health care system. CONCLUSION: A combination of demographic and clinical variables is strongly associated with severe COVID-19 disease or death and their early onset. The COVID-19 Inpatient Risk Calculator (CIRC), using factors present on admission, can inform clinical and resource allocation decisions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Hopkins inHealth and COVID-19 Administrative Supplement for the HHS Region 3 Treatment Center from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Severity of Illness Index , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Child, Preschool , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: The objective was to determine if use of ultrasound (US) by emergency physicians (EPs) to localize spinal landmarks improves the performance of lumbar puncture (LP). METHODS: This was a prospective, randomized, controlled study conducted in a county teaching hospital. Subjects, adults 18 years of age or older who were to receive LPs for routine clinical care in the emergency department (ED), were randomized either to undergo US localization of the puncture site or to have the puncture site determined by palpation of spinal landmarks. Primary outcomes were the number of needle insertion attempts and success of the procedure. Secondary outcomes were pain associated with the procedure, time to perform the procedure, number of traumatic taps, and patient satisfaction with the procedure. RESULTS: One-hundred patients were enrolled in the study, with 50 in each study group. There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), indication for LP, or ease of palpation of landmarks. For both primary outcomes and secondary outcomes there were no significant differences between those undergoing US localization and those with palpation alone. CONCLUSIONS: These data do not suggest any advantage to the routine use of US localization for LP insertion, although further study may be warranted to look for benefit in the difficult to palpate or obese patient subgroups.
Subject(s)
Emergency Service, Hospital , Spinal Puncture/methods , Ultrasonography, Interventional/methods , Adult , Anatomic Landmarks , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Patient Satisfaction , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
Lumbar puncture is a common procedure performed in the emergency department for evaluation of several life-threatening conditions, including meningitis and subarachnoid hemorrhage. We describe the use of bedside ultrasound to assist in performance of the lumbar puncture in situations where the standard "blind" technique of needle insertion using palpable spinal landmarks is likely to be difficult or to fail. Use of ultrasound to guide lumbar puncture needle placement was originally reported 30 years ago in the Russian literature. More recently, ultrasound has been used for guiding needle placement for epidural and spinal anesthesia by anesthesiologists and for diagnostic lumbar puncture on infants by radiologists.
