Genetic tracing of the illegal trade of the white-bellied pangolin (Phataginus tricuspis) in western Central Africa.

The white-bellied pangolin is subject to intense trafficking, feeding both local and international trade networks. In order to assess its population genetics and trace its domestic trade, we genotyped 562 pangolins from local to large bushmeat markets in western central Africa. We show that the two lineages described from the study region (WCA and Gab) were overlapping in ranges, with limited introgression in southern Cameroon. There was a lack of genetic differentiation across WCA and a significant signature of isolation-by-distance possibly due to unsuspected dispersal capacities involving a Wahlund effect. We detected a c. 74.1-82.5% decline in the effective population size of WCA during the Middle Holocene. Private allele frequency tracing approach indicated up to 600 km sourcing distance by large urban markets from Cameroon, including Equatorial Guinea. The 20 species-specific microsatellite loci provided individual-level genotyping resolution and should be considered as valuable resources for future forensic applications. Because admixture was detected between lineages, we recommend a multi-locus approach for tracing the pangolin trade. The Yaoundé market was the main hub of the trade in the region, and thus should receive specific monitoring to mitigate pangolins' domestic trafficking. Our study also highlighted the weak implementation of CITES regulations at European borders.

Genomic analyses reveal poaching hotspots and illegal trade in pangolins from Africa to Asia.

The white-bellied pangolin (Phataginus tricuspis) is the world's most trafficked mammal and is at risk of extinction. Reducing the illegal wildlife trade requires an understanding of its origins. Using a genomic approach for tracing confiscations and analyzing 111 samples collected from known geographic localities in Africa and 643 seized scales from Asia between 2012 and 2018, we found that poaching pressures shifted over time from West to Central Africa. Recently, Cameroon's southern border has emerged as a site of intense poaching. Using data from seizures representing nearly 1 million African pangolins, we identified Nigeria as one important hub for trafficking, where scales are amassed and transshipped to markets in Asia. This origin-to-destination approach offers new opportunities to disrupt the illegal wildlife trade and to guide anti-trafficking measures.

Trait matching and sampling effort shape the structure of the frugivory network in Afrotropical forests.

Frugivory in tropical forests is a major ecological process as most tree species rely on frugivores to disperse their seeds. However, the underlying mechanisms driving frugivore-plant networks remain understudied. Here, we evaluate the data available on the Afrotropical frugivory network to identify structural properties, as well as assess knowledge gaps. We assembled a database of frugivory interactions from the literature with > 10 000 links, between 807 tree and 285 frugivore species. We analysed the network structure using a block model that groups species with similar interaction patterns and estimates interaction probabilities among them. We investigated the species traits related to this grouping structure. This frugivory network was simplified into 14 tree and 14 frugivore blocks. The block structure depended on the sampling effort among species: Large mammals were better-studied, while smaller frugivores were the least studied. Species traits related to frugivory were strong predictors of the species composition of blocks and interactions among them. Fruits from larger trees were consumed by most frugivores, and large frugivores had higher probabilities to consume larger fruits. To conclude, this large-scale frugivory network was mainly structured by species traits involved in frugivory, and as expected by the distribution areas of species, while still being limited by sampling incompleteness.

Can diet niche partitioning enhance sexual dimorphism?

Classic evolutionary theory suggests that sexual dimorphism evolves primarily via sexual and fecundity selection. However, theory and evidence are beginning to accumulate suggesting that resource competition can drive the evolution of sexual dimorphism, via ecological character displacement between sexes. A key prediction of this hypothesis is that the extent of ecological divergence between sexes will be associated with the extent of sexual dimorphism. As the stable isotope ratios of animal tissues provide a quantitative measure of various aspects of ecology, we carried out a meta-analysis examining associations between the extent of isotopic divergence between sexes and the extent of body size dimorphism. Our models demonstrate that large amounts of between-study variation in isotopic (ecological) divergence between sexes is nonrandom and may be associated with the traits of study subjects. We, therefore, completed meta-regressions to examine whether the extent of isotopic divergence between sexes is associated with the extent of sexual size dimorphism. We found modest but significantly positive associations across species between size dimorphism and ecological differences between sexes, that increased in strength when the ecological opportunity for dietary divergence between sexes was greatest. Our results, therefore, provide further evidence that ecologically mediated selection, not directly related to reproduction, can contribute to the evolution of sexual dimorphism.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents.

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Aún existen importantes vacíos en la comprensión de la respuesta reproductiva de las plantas al cambio medioambiental, en parte, porque su monitoreo en especies de plantas longevas requiere una observación directa durante muchos años, y estos conjuntos de datos rara vez han estado disponibles. Aquí presentamos a MASTREE +, una base de datos que recopila series de tiempo de la reproducción de las plantas de todo el planeta, poniendo a disposición estos datos de libre acceso para la comunidad científica. MASTREE + incluye 73.828 puntos de observación de la reproducción anual georreferenciados (ej. conteos de semillas y frutos) en poblaciones de plantas perennes en todo el mundo. Estas observaciones consisten en 5971 series temporales a nivel de población provenientes de 974 especies en 66 países. La mediana de la duración de las series de tiempo es de 10 años (media = 12.4 años) y el conjunto de datos incluye 1.122 series de al menos dos décadas (≥20 años de observaciones). Para un subconjunto de especies bien estudiadas, MASTREE +incluye un amplio conjunto de series temporales replicadas en gradientes geográficos y climáticos. Describimos el conjunto de datos de acceso abierto disponible como un archivo.csv y presentamos una aplicación web asociada para la exploración de datos. MASTREE+ proporcionará la base para mejorar la comprensión sobre la respuesta reproductiva de plantas longevas al cambio medioambiental. Además, MASTREE+ facilitará los avances en la investigación de la ecología y la evolución de las estrategias reproductivas en plantas perennes y el papel de la reproducción vegetal como determinante de la dinámica de ecosistemas.

Fine root dynamics across pantropical rainforest ecosystems.

Fine roots constitute a significant component of the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest ecosystems but are much less studied than aboveground NPP. Comparisons across sites and regions are also hampered by inconsistent methodologies, especially in tropical areas. Here, we present a novel dataset of fine root biomass, productivity, residence time, and allocation in tropical old-growth rainforest sites worldwide, measured using consistent methods, and examine how these variables are related to consistently determined soil and climatic characteristics. Our pantropical dataset spans intensive monitoring plots in lowland (wet, semi-deciduous, and deciduous) and montane tropical forests in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia (n = 47). Large spatial variation in fine root dynamics was observed across montane and lowland forest types. In lowland forests, we found a strong positive linear relationship between fine root productivity and sand content, this relationship was even stronger when we considered the fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, demonstrating that understanding allocation adds explanatory power to understanding fine root productivity and total NPP. Fine root residence time was a function of multiple factors: soil sand content, soil pH, and maximum water deficit, with longest residence times in acidic, sandy, and water-stressed soils. In tropical montane forests, on the other hand, a different set of relationships prevailed, highlighting the very different nature of montane and lowland forest biomes. Root productivity was a strong positive linear function of mean annual temperature, root residence time was a strong positive function of soil nitrogen content in montane forests, and lastly decreasing soil P content increased allocation of productivity to fine roots. In contrast to the lowlands, environmental conditions were a better predictor for fine root productivity than for fractional allocation of total NPP to fine roots, suggesting that root productivity is a particularly strong driver of NPP allocation in tropical mountain regions.

Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna.

Afrotropical forests host much of the world's remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.

COVID-19, Systemic Crisis, and Possible Implications for the Wild Meat Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Wild animals play an integral and complex role in the economies and ecologies of many countries across the globe, including those of West and Central Africa, the focus of this policy perspective. The trade in wild meat, and its role in diets, have been brought into focus as a consequence of discussions over the origins of COVID-19. As a result, there have been calls for the closure of China's "wet markets"; greater scrutiny of the wildlife trade in general; and a spotlight has been placed on the potential risks posed by growing human populations and shrinking natural habitats for animal to human transmission of zoonotic diseases. However, to date there has been little attention given to what the consequences of the COVID-19 economic shock may be for the wildlife trade; the people who rely on it for their livelihoods; and the wildlife that is exploited. In this policy perspective, we argue that the links between the COVID-19 pandemic, rural livelihoods and wildlife are likely to be more complex, more nuanced, and more far-reaching, than is represented in the literature to date. We develop a causal model that tracks the likely implications for the wild meat trade of the systemic crisis triggered by COVID-19. We focus on the resulting economic shockwave, as manifested in the collapse in global demand for commodities such as oil, and international tourism services, and what this may mean for local African economies and livelihoods. We trace the shockwave through to the consequences for the use of, and demand for, wild meats as households respond to these changes. We suggest that understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of wild meat use requires increased collaboration between environmental and resource economics and the ecological and conservation sciences.

Rare ground data confirm significant warming and drying in western equatorial Africa.

BACKGROUND: The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2,000 mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of persistent cloudiness and inability to ground-truth estimates. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests under future climate scenarios. METHODS: We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34 year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Gabon, western equatorial Africa. We used (generalized) linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. RESULTS: Lopé's weather is characterised by a cool, light-deficient, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last 34 years, with warming occurring at a rate of +0.25 °C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of -75 mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual climatic variability at Lopé is highly influenced by global weather patterns. Sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have strong coherence with Lopé temperature and rainfall on multi-annual scales. CONCLUSIONS: The Lopé long-term weather record has not previously been made public and is of high value in such a data poor region. Our results support regional analyses of climatic seasonality, long-term warming and the influences of the oceans on temperature and rainfall variability. However, warming has occurred more rapidly than the regional products suggest and while there remains much uncertainty in the wider region, rainfall has declined over the last three decades at Lopé. The association between rainfall and the Atlantic cold tongue at Lopé lends some support for the 'dry' models of climate change for the region. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of dry season clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid evergreen forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests.

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1-3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7-9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

ENSO Drives interannual variation of forest woody growth across the tropics.

Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPPstem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr-1, with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr-1 between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Niño events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Niño-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Niño 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery and panel characterization in the African forest elephant.

The continuing decline in forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) numbers due to poaching and habitat reduction is driving the search for new tools to inform management and conservation. For dense rainforest species, basic ecological data on populations and threats can be challenging and expensive to collect, impeding conservation action in the field. As such, genetic monitoring is being increasingly implemented to complement or replace more burdensome field techniques. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are particularly cost-effective and informative markers that can be used for a range of practical applications, including population census, assessment of human impact on social and genetic structure, and investigation of the illegal wildlife trade. SNP resources for elephants are scarce, but next-generation sequencing provides the opportunity for rapid, inexpensive generation of SNP markers in nonmodel species. Here, we sourced forest elephant DNA from 23 samples collected from 10 locations within Gabon, Central Africa, and applied double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing to discover 31,851 tags containing SNPs that were reduced to a set of 1,365 high-quality candidate SNP markers. A subset of 115 candidate SNPs was then selected for assay design and validation using 56 additional samples. Genotyping resulted in a high conversion rate (93%) and a low per allele error rate (0.07%). This study provides the first panel of 107 validated SNP markers for forest elephants. This resource presents great potential for new genetic tools to produce reliable data and underpin a step-change in conservation policies for this elusive species.

Bushmeat hunting and extinction risk to the world's mammals.

Terrestrial mammals are experiencing a massive collapse in their population sizes and geographical ranges around the world, but many of the drivers, patterns and consequences of this decline remain poorly understood. Here we provide an analysis showing that bushmeat hunting for mostly food and medicinal products is driving a global crisis whereby 301 terrestrial mammal species are threatened with extinction. Nearly all of these threatened species occur in developing countries where major coexisting threats include deforestation, agricultural expansion, human encroachment and competition with livestock. The unrelenting decline of mammals suggests many vital ecological and socio-economic services that these species provide will be lost, potentially changing ecosystems irrevocably. We discuss options and current obstacles to achieving effective conservation, alongside consequences of failure to stem such anthropogenic mammalian extirpation. We propose a multi-pronged conservation strategy to help save threatened mammals from immediate extinction and avoid a collapse of food security for hundreds of millions of people.

African Savanna-Forest Boundary Dynamics: A 20-Year Study.

Recent studies show widespread encroachment of forest into savannas with important consequences for the global carbon cycle and land-atmosphere interactions. However, little research has focused on in situ measurements of the successional sequence of savanna to forest in Africa. Using long-term inventory plots we quantify changes in vegetation structure, above-ground biomass (AGB) and biodiversity of trees ≥10 cm diameter over 20 years for five vegetation types: savanna; colonising forest (F1), monodominant Okoume forest (F2); young Marantaceae forest (F3); and mixed Marantaceae forest (F4) in Lopé National Park, central Gabon, plus novel 3D terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) measurements to assess forest structure differences. Over 20 years no plot changed to a new stage in the putative succession, but F1 forests strongly moved towards the structure, AGB and diversity of F2 forests. Overall, savanna plots showed no detectable change in structure, AGB or diversity using this method, with zero trees ≥10 cm diameter in 1993 and 2013. F1 and F2 forests increased in AGB, mainly as a result of adding recruited stems (F1) and increased Basal Area (F2), whereas F3 and F4 forests did not change substantially in structure, AGB or diversity. Critically, the stability of the F3 stage implies that this stage may be maintained for long periods. Soil carbon was low, and did not show a successional gradient as for AGB and diversity. TLS vertical plant profiles showed distinctive differences amongst the vegetation types, indicating that this technique can improve ecological understanding. We highlight two points: (i) as forest colonises, changes in biodiversity are much slower than changes in forest structure or AGB; and (ii) all forest types store substantial quantities of carbon. Multi-decadal monitoring is likely to be required to assess the speed of transition between vegetation types.

Protected areas in tropical Africa: assessing threats and conservation activities.

Numerous protected areas (PAs) have been created in Africa to safeguard wildlife and other natural resources. However, significant threats from anthropogenic activities and decline of wildlife populations persist, while conservation efforts in most PAs are still minimal. We assessed the impact level of the most common threats to wildlife within PAs in tropical Africa and the relationship of conservation activities with threat impact level. We collated data on 98 PAs with tropical forest cover from 15 countries across West, Central and East Africa. For this, we assembled information about local threats as well as conservation activities from published and unpublished literature, and questionnaires sent to long-term field workers. We constructed general linear models to test the significance of specific conservation activities in relation to the threat impact level. Subsistence and commercial hunting were identified as the most common direct threats to wildlife and found to be most prevalent in West and Central Africa. Agriculture and logging represented the most common indirect threats, and were most prevalent in West Africa. We found that the long-term presence of conservation activities (such as law enforcement, research and tourism) was associated with lower threat impact levels. Our results highlight deficiencies in the management effectiveness of several PAs across tropical Africa, and conclude that PA management should invest more into conservation activities with long-term duration.