Cerebrospinal fluid CD14++CD16+ monocytes in HIV-1 subtype C compared with subtype B.

CD14++CD16+ monocytes are susceptible to HIV-1 infection, and cross the blood-brain barrier. HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C) shows reduced Tat protein chemoattractant activity compared to HIV-1B, which might influence monocyte trafficking into the CNS. We hypothesized that the proportion of monocytes in CSF in HIV-1C is lower than HIV-1B group. We sought to assess differences in monocyte proportions in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and peripheral blood (PB) between people with HIV (PWH) and without HIV (PWoH), and by HIV-1B and -C subtypes. Immunophenotyping was performed by flow cytometry, monocytes were analyzed within CD45 + and CD64 + gated regions and classified in classical (CD14++CD16-), intermediate (CD14++CD16+), and non-classical (CD14lowCD16+). Among PWH, the median [IQR] CD4 nadir was 219 [32-531] cell/mm3; plasma HIV RNA (log10) was 1.60 [1.60-3.21], and 68% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Participants with HIV-1C and -B were comparable in terms of age, duration of infection, CD4 nadir, plasma HIV RNA, and ART. The proportion of CSF CD14++CD16+ monocytes was higher in participants with HIV-1C than those with HIV-1B [2.00(0.00-2.80) vs. 0.00(0.00-0.60) respectively, p = 0.03 after BH correction p = 0.10]. Despite viral suppression, the proportion of total monocytes in PB increased in PWH, due to the increase in CD14++CD16+ and CD14lowCD16+ monocytes. The HIV-1C Tat substitution (C30S31) did not interfere with the migration of CD14++CD16+ monocytes to the CNS. This is the first study to evaluate these monocytes in the CSF and PB and compare their proportions according to HIV subtype.

CD3+CD56+ and CD3-CD56+ lymphocytes in the cerebrospinal fluid of persons with HIV-1 subtypes B and C.

The transactivator of transcription (Tat) is a HIV regulatory protein which promotes viral replication and chemotaxis. HIV-1 shows extensive genetic diversity, HIV-1 subtype C being the most dominant subtype in the world. Our hypothesis is the frequency of CSF CD3+CD56+ and CD3-CD56dim is reduced in HIV-1C compared to HIV-1B due to the Tat C30S31 substitution in HIV-1C. 34 CSF and paired blood samples (PWH, n = 20; PWoH, n = 14) were studied. In PWH, the percentage of CD3+CD56+ was higher in CSF than in blood (p < 0.001), comparable in both compartments in PWoH (p = 0.20). The proportion of CD3-CD56dim in CSF in PWH was higher than PWoH (p = 0.008). There was no subtype differences. These results showed CNS compartmentalization of NKT cell response in PWH.

Main lymphocyte subpopulations in cerebrospinal fluid and peripheral blood in HIV-1 subtypes C and B.

HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C) shows reduced Tat protein chemoattractant activity compared with HIV-1B. The impact of HIV-1C Tat on the chemotaxis of the main lymphocyte subpopulations in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and the peripheral blood (PB) is unclear. We hypothesized that there would be a lower frequency of specific lymphocyte subpopulations CD3+ or CD19+ in CSF in HIV-1C than in HIV-1B. The objectives were to detect the differences in the proportions of main lymphocyte subpopulations in CSF and PB, between people with HIV (PWH) and HIV-1-uninfected volunteers (PWoH) and in HIV-1B and HIV-1C. Lymphocyte immunophenotyping was studied in CSF and paired PB samples of PWH (n = 22) and PWoH (n = 14). Lymphocytes were analyzed within the CD45+ gated region. The proportions of CSF CD3+CD4+, CD3+CD8+, and CD3-CD19+ lymphocytes in CSF were comparable in HIV-1B and C. There was an increase in the proportion of CD3+CD8+ cells and a decrease in CD3+CD4+ T cells (ps = 0.016) in the CSF samples of the PWH compared with the PWoH group. In the PWH group, both CD3+CD4+ and CD3+CD8+ lymphocytes were significantly higher in the CSF than in the PB (p = 0.047 and 0.005). The proportion of CD3+CD4+ was lower and that of CD3+CD8+ was higher in the CSF samples of the aviremic group than that of HIV-negative control (p = 0.0008 and < 0.0001, respectively). HIV-1C Tat substitution (C30S) did not interfere with the CNS migration of the main lymphocyte subpopulations. This is the first study to evaluate these lymphocytes in CSF and PB of HIV-1C compared with HIV-1B.

Statistical approaches to account for missing values in accelerometer data: Applications to modeling physical activity.

Physical inactivity is a recognized risk factor for many chronic diseases. Accelerometers are increasingly used as an objective means to measure daily physical activity. One challenge in using these devices is missing data due to device nonwear. We used a well-characterized cohort of 333 overweight postmenopausal breast cancer survivors to examine missing data patterns of accelerometer outputs over the day. Based on these observed missingness patterns, we created psuedo-simulated datasets with realistic missing data patterns. We developed statistical methods to design imputation and variance weighting algorithms to account for missing data effects when fitting regression models. Bias and precision of each method were evaluated and compared. Our results indicated that not accounting for missing data in the analysis yielded unstable estimates in the regression analysis. Incorporating variance weights and/or subject-level imputation improved precision by >50%, compared to ignoring missing data. We recommend that these simple easy-to-implement statistical tools be used to improve analysis of accelerometer data.

A randomized controlled trial of gabapentin for chronic low back pain with and without a radiating component.

Gabapentin is prescribed for analgesia in chronic low back pain, yet there are no controlled trials supporting this practice. This randomized, 2-arm, 12-week, parallel group study compared gabapentin (forced titration up to 3600 mg daily) with inert placebo. The primary efficacy measure was change in pain intensity from baseline to the last week on treatment measured by the Descriptor Differential Scale; the secondary outcome was disability (Oswestry Disability Index). The intention-to-treat analysis comprised 108 randomized patients with chronic back pain (daily pain for ≥6 months) whose pain did (43%) or did not radiate into the lower extremity. Random effects regression models which did not impute missing scores were used to analyze outcome data. Pain intensity decreased significantly over time (P < 0.0001) with subjects on gabapentin or placebo, reporting reductions of about 30% from baseline, but did not differ significantly between groups (P = 0.423). The same results pertained for disability scores. In responder analyses of those who completed 12 weeks (N = 72), the proportion reporting at least 30% or 50% reduction in pain intensity, or at least "Minimal Improvement" on the Physician Clinical Global Impression of Change did not differ significantly between groups. There were no significant differences in analgesia between participants with radiating (n = 46) and nonradiating (n = 62) pain either within or between treatment arms. There was no significant correlation between gabapentin plasma concentration and pain intensity. Gabapentin appears to be ineffective for analgesia in chronic low back pain with or without a radiating component.

Neurocognitive change in the era of HIV combination antiretroviral therapy: the longitudinal CHARTER study.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) can show variable clinical trajectories. Previous longitudinal studies of HAND typically have been brief, did not use adequate normative standards, or were conducted in the context of a clinical trial, thereby limiting our understanding of incident neurocognitive (NC) decline and recovery. METHODS: We investigated the incidence and predictors of NC change over 16-72 (mean, 35) months in 436 HIV-infected participants in the CNS HIV Anti-Retroviral Therapy Effects Research cohort. Comprehensive laboratory, neuromedical, and NC assessments were obtained every 6 months. Published, regression-based norms for NC change were used to generate overall change status (decline vs stable vs improved) at each study visit. Survival analysis was used to examine the predictors of time to NC change. RESULTS: Ninety-nine participants (22.7%) declined, 265 (60.8%) remained stable, and 72 (16.5%) improved. In multivariable analyses, predictors of NC improvements or declines included time-dependent treatment status and indicators of disease severity (current hematocrit, albumin, total protein, aspartate aminotransferase), and baseline demographics and estimated premorbid intelligence quotient, non-HIV-related comorbidities, current depressive symptoms, and lifetime psychiatric diagnoses (overall model P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: NC change is common in HIV infection and appears to be driven by a complex set of risk factors involving HIV disease, its treatment, and comorbid conditions.

Asymptomatic HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment increases risk for symptomatic decline.

OBJECTIVE: While HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) remain prevalent despite combination antiretroviral therapy (CART), the clinical relevance of asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment (ANI), the most common HAND diagnosis, remains unclear. We investigated whether HIV-infected persons with ANI were more likely than those who were neurocognitively normal (NCN) to experience a decline in everyday functioning (symptomatic decline). METHODS: A total of 347 human participants from the CNS HIV Anti-Retroviral Therapy Effects Research (CHARTER) cohort were NCN (n = 226) or had ANI (n = 121) at baseline. Neurocognitive assessments occurred approximately every 6 months, with median (interquartile range) follow-up of 45.2 (28.7-63.7) months. Symptomatic decline was based on self-report (SR) or objective, performance-based (PB) problems in everyday functioning. Proportional hazards modeling was used to generate risk ratios for progression to symptomatic HAND after adjusting for baseline and time-dependent covariates, including CD4+ T-lymphocyte count (CD4), virologic suppression, CART, and mood. RESULTS: The ANI group had a shorter time to symptomatic HAND than the NCN after adjusting for baseline predictors: adjusted risk ratios for symptomatic HAND were 2.0 (confidence interval [CI] 1.1-3.6; p = 0.02) for SR, 5.8 (CI 3.2-10.7; p < 0.0001) for PB, and 3.2 (CI 2.0-5.0; p < 0.0001) for either SR or PB. Current CD4 and depression were significant time-dependent covariates, but antiretroviral regimen, virologic suppression, and substance abuse or dependence were not. CONCLUSIONS: This longitudinal study demonstrates that ANI conveys a 2-fold to 6-fold increase in risk for earlier development of symptomatic HAND, supporting the prognostic value of the ANI diagnosis in clinical settings. Identifying those at highest risk for symptomatic decline may offer an opportunity to modify treatment to delay progression.

HIV-associated distal neuropathic pain is associated with smaller total cerebral cortical gray matter.

Despite modern antiretroviral therapy, HIV-associated sensory neuropathy affects over 50 % of HIV patients. The clinical expression of HIV neuropathy is highly variable: many individuals report few symptoms, but about half report distal neuropathic pain (DNP), making it one of the most prevalent, disabling, and treatment-resistant complications of HIV disease. The presence and intensity of pain is not fully explained by the degree of peripheral nerve damage, making it unclear why some patients do, and others do not, report pain. To better understand central nervous system contributions to HIV DNP, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of structural magnetic resonance imaging volumes in 241 HIV-infected participants from an observational multi-site cohort study at five US sites (CNS HIV Anti-Retroviral Treatment Effects Research Study, CHARTER). The association between DNP and the structural imaging outcomes was investigated using both linear and nonlinear (Gaussian Kernel support vector) multivariable regression, controlling for key demographic and clinical variables. Severity of DNP symptoms was correlated with smaller total cerebral cortical gray matter volume (r = -0.24; p = 0.004). Understanding the mechanisms for this association between smaller total cortical volumes and DNP may provide insight into HIV DNP chronicity and treatment-resistance.

Dynamic indices of methamphetamine dependence and HIV infection predict fluctuations in affective distress: a five-year longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Methamphetamine (METH) use and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are highly comorbid, and both are associated with increased prevalence of affective distress. Delineating the trajectory of affective distress in the context of METH dependence and HIV infection is important given the implications for everyday functional impairment, adverse health behaviors, and increased risk for adverse health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a five-year longitudinal investigation involving 133 METH-dependent (74 HIV seropositive) and 163 non-METH-dependent (90 HIV seropositive) persons to examine both long-standing patterns and transient changes in affective distress. Mixed-effect regression models with random subject-specific slopes and intercepts evaluated the effect of METH dependence, HIV serostatus, and related variables on affective distress, as measured by the Profile of Mood States. RESULTS: Transient changes in affective distress were found to be greater among those with a diagnosis of current MDD, briefer durations of abstinence from METH, and higher quantity of METH consumed. Weak associations were observed among static (time-independent predictors) covariates and long-standing patterns in affective distress. LIMITATIONS: Study lacked data pertaining to the participants' involvement in METH treatment and relied on respondent-driven sampling. CONCLUSIONS: Our longitudinal investigation of the trajectory of affective distress indicated that specific and dynamic indices of current METH use were associated with greater transient changes in mood. In the evaluation and treatment of affective distress, recency and quantity of current METH use are important to consider given their association with heightened affective distress and mood instability over time.

Abnormal microglial-neuronal spatial organization in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in autism.

Microglial activation and alterations in neuron number have been reported in autism. However, it is unknown whether microglial activation in the disorder includes a neuron-directed microglial response that might reflect neuronal dysfunction, or instead indicates a non-directed, pro-activation brain environment. To address this question, we examined microglial and neuronal organization in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region of pronounced early brain overgrowth in autism, via spatial pattern analysis of 13 male postmortem autism subjects and 9 controls. We report that microglia are more frequently present near neurons in the autism cases at a distance interval of 25 µm, as well as 75 and 100 µm. Many interactions are observed between near-distance microglia and neurons that appear to involve encirclement of the neurons by microglial processes. Analysis of a young subject subgroup preliminarily suggests that this alteration may be present from an early age in autism. We additionally observed that neuron-neuron clustering, although normal in cases with autism as a whole, increases with advancing age in autism, suggesting a gradual loss of normal neuronal organization in the disorder. Microglia-microglia organization is normal in autism at all ages, indicating that aberrantly close microglia-neuron association in the disorder is not a result of altered microglial distribution. Our findings confirm that at least some microglial activation in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in autism is associated with a neuron-specific reaction, and suggest that neuronal organization may degrade later in life in the disorder.

Normative data and validation of a regression based summary score for assessing meaningful neuropsychological change.

Reliable detection and quantification of longitudinal cognitive change are of considerable importance in many neurological disorders, particularly to monitor central nervous system effects of disease progression and treatment. In the current study, we developed normative data for repeated neuropsychological (NP) assessments (6 testings) using a modified standard regression-based (SRB) approach in a sample that includes both HIV-uninfected (HIV-, N = 172) and neuromedically stable HIV-infected (HIV+, N = 124) individuals. Prior analyses indicated no differences in NP change between the infected and uninfected participants. The norms for change included correction for factors found to significantly affect follow-up performance, using hierarchical regression. The most robust and consistent predictors of follow-up performance were the prior performance on the same test (which contributed in all models) and a measure of prior overall NP competence (predictor in 97% of all models). Demographic variables were predictors in 10-46% of all models and in small amounts; while test-retest interval contributed in only 6% of all models. Based on the regression equations, standardized change scores (z scores) were computed for each test measure at each interval; these z scores were then averaged to create a total battery change score. An independent sample of HIV- participants who had completed 8 of the 15 tests was used to validate an abridged summary change score. The normative data are available in an electronic format by e-mail request to the first author. Correction for practice effects based on normative data improved the consistency of NP impairment classification in a clinically stable longitudinal cohort after baseline.

HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders before and during the era of combination antiretroviral therapy: differences in rates, nature, and predictors.

Combination antiretroviral therapy (CART) has greatly reduced medical morbidity and mortality with HIV infection, but high rates of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) continue to be reported. Because large HIV-infected (HIV+) and uninfected (HIV-) groups have not been studied with similar methods in the pre-CART and CART eras, it is unclear whether CART has changed the prevalence, nature, and clinical correlates of HAND. We used comparable methods of subject screening and assessments to classify neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in large groups of HIV + and HIV - participants from the pre-CART era (1988-1995; N = 857) and CART era (2000-2007; N = 937). Impairment rate increased with successive disease stages (CDC stages A, B, and C) in both eras: 25%, 42%, and 52% in pre-CART era and 36%, 40%, and 45% in CART era. In the medically asymptomatic stage (CDC-A), NCI was significantly more common in the CART era. Low nadir CD4 predicted NCI in both eras, whereas degree of current immunosuppression, estimated duration of infection, and viral suppression in CSF (on treatment) were related to impairment only pre-CART. Pattern of NCI also differed: pre-CART had more impairment in motor skills, cognitive speed, and verbal fluency, whereas CART era involved more memory (learning) and executive function impairment. High rates of mild NCI persist at all stages of HIV infection, despite improved viral suppression and immune reconstitution with CART. The consistent association of NCI with nadir CD4 across eras suggests that earlier treatment to prevent severe immunosuppression may also help prevent HAND. Clinical trials targeting HAND prevention should specifically examine timing of ART initiation.

Estimating the accuracy of anal cytology in the presence of an imperfect reference standard.

BACKGROUND: The study aim is to estimate sensitivity and specificity of anal cytology for histologic HSIL in analyses adjusted for the imperfect biopsy reference standard. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Retrospective cohort study of an anal dysplasia screening program for HIV infected adults. We estimated the prevalence of histologic HSIL by concurrent cytology category and the associated cytology ROC area. Cytology operating characteristics for HSIL were estimated and adjusted for the imperfect reference standard by 3 methodologies. The study cohort included 261 patients with 3 available measures: (1) referral cytology; (2) HRA cytology; and (3) HRA directed biopsy. The prevalence of biopsy HSIL varied according to the concurrent HRA cytology result: 64.5% for HSIL or ASC-H, 12.6% for LSIL, 10.9% for ASCUS, and 6.3% for no abnormality. The cytology ROC area was 0.78. The observed prevalence of HSIL was 37% (referral cytology), 24% (HRA cytology), and 24% (HRA biopsy). Unadjusted estimates of sensitivity and specificity of cytology were 0.66 and 0.90, respectively. Adjusted estimates varied from 0.47-0.89 (sensitivity) and 0.89-1.0 (specificity). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of a single dataset yields widely different estimates of anal cytology operating characteristics that depend on difficult to verify assumptions regarding the accuracy of the imperfect reference standard.

Incidence and nature of cognitive decline over 1 year among HIV-infected former plasma donors in China.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify and characterize the nature of cognitive change over 1 year in a cohort of HIV-positive former plasma donors in rural China. DESIGN: The present study is an observational cohort study. METHODS: One hundred and ninety-two HIV-positive and 101 demographically comparable HIV-negative individuals, all former plasma donors, who lived in a rural part of China, received comprehensive medical and neuropsychological examinations. At study entry, 56% of HIV-positive group was on combination antiretroviral treatment and 60.9% at follow-up. Multiple regression change score approach was used with the HIV-negative sample to develop norms for change that would be then applied to the HIV-positive participants. Follow-up test scores adjusted for the control group practice effect. RESULTS: Fifty-three HIV-positive individuals (27%) developed significant cognitive decline as compared with five (5%) HIV-negative individuals. Cognitive decline was predicted at baseline by AIDS status, lower nadir CD4, and worse processing speed; at follow-up, it was associated with lower current CD4 cell count and failure of viral suppression on combination antiretroviral treatment. Neuropsychological decline also was associated with decreased independence in activities of daily living. Using neuropsychological impairment scores that were corrected for 'practice' on repeated testing, we found that among the decliners, 41.5% (N = 22) had incident impairment, whereas 38% (N = 20) declined within the impaired range and another 20.7% (N = 11) declined within the normal range. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that despite ongoing combination antiretroviral treatment, cognitive decline in HIV-positive people is common over a 1-year follow-up. Regression-based norms for change on western neuropsychological tests can be used to detect disease-related cognitive decline in a developing country.

Two-year prospective study of major depressive disorder in HIV-infected men.

OBJECTIVE: The risks and factors contributing to major depressive episodes in HIV infection remain unclear. This 2-year prospective study compared cumulative rates and predictors of a major depressive episode in HIV-infected (HIV+) men (N=297) and uninfected (HIV-) risk-group controls (N=90). METHODS: By design participants at entry were without current major depression, substance dependence or major anxiety disorder. Standardized neuromedical, neuropsychological, neuroimaging, life events, and psychiatric assessments (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM III-R) were conducted semi-annually for those with AIDS, and annually for all others. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence of major depression or other psychiatric disorder did not differ at baseline between HIV+ men and controls. On a two-year follow-up those with symptomatic HIV disease were significantly more likely to experience a major depressive episode than were asymptomatic HIV+ individuals and HIV-controls (p<0.05). Episodes were as likely to be first onset as recurrent depression. After baseline disease stage and medical variables associated with HIV infection were controlled, a lifetime history of major depression, or of lifetime psychiatric comorbidity (two or more psychiatric disorders), predicted subsequent major depressive episode (p<0.05). Neither HIV disease progression during follow-up, nor the baseline presence of neurocognitive impairment, clinical brain imaging abnormality, or marked life adversity predicted a later major depressive episode. LIMITATIONS: Research cohort of men examined before era of widespread use of advanced anti-HIV therapies. CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic HIV disease, but not HIV infection itself, increases intermediate-term risk of major depression. Prior psychiatric history most strongly predicted future vulnerability.

Dose-dependent effects of smoked cannabis on capsaicin-induced pain and hyperalgesia in healthy volunteers.

BACKGROUND: Although the preclinical literature suggests that cannabinoids produce antinociception and antihyperalgesic effects, efficacy in the human pain state remains unclear. Using a human experimental pain model, the authors hypothesized that inhaled cannabis would reduce the pain and hyperalgesia induced by intradermal capsaicin. METHODS: In a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, crossover trial in 15 healthy volunteers, the authors evaluated concentration-response effects of low-, medium-, and high-dose smoked cannabis (respectively 2%, 4%, and 8% 9-delta-tetrahydrocannabinol by weight) on pain and cutaneous hyperalgesia induced by intradermal capsaicin. Capsaicin was injected into opposite forearms 5 and 45 min after drug exposure, and pain, hyperalgesia, tetrahydrocannabinol plasma levels, and side effects were assessed. RESULTS: Five minutes after cannabis exposure, there was no effect on capsaicin-induced pain at any dose. By 45 min after cannabis exposure, however, there was a significant decrease in capsaicin-induced pain with the medium dose and a significant increase in capsaicin-induced pain with the high dose. There was no effect seen with the low dose, nor was there an effect on the area of hyperalgesia at any dose. Significant negative correlations between pain perception and plasma delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol levels were found after adjusting for the overall dose effects. There was no significant difference in performance on the neuropsychological tests. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that there is a window of modest analgesia for smoked cannabis, with lower doses decreasing pain and higher doses increasing pain.

Efficacy of noradrenergic and serotonergic antidepressants in chronic back pain: a preliminary concentration-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Although antidepressants are widely prescribed as analgesics in chronic back pain, their clinical pharmacology is not well established. Norepinephrine transporter blockade seems to be essential for analgesia, but optimal concentrations are unknown. Fixed-dose studies of serotonin reuptake inhibitors are generally negative, but such studies cannot be interpreted clearly because efficacy might be detected if concentration-response relationships were known. We evaluated (1) the feasibility of conducting a controlled-concentration study of a norepinephrine (desipramine) and a serotonin reuptake (fluoxetine) inhibitor and (2) the relationship between achieved concentrations and analgesic response. METHODS: This single-center, 12-week, double-blind, prospective, controlled-concentration study randomized 121 chronic back pain patients without major depression to active placebo (benztropine mesylate) or to predetermined low, medium, or high concentrations of desipramine (targets were 50, 110, and 150 ng/mL, respectively) or fluoxetine (targets were 100, 200, and 400 ng/mL, respectively). Of these, 83 completed the trial: 38 withdrew primarily due to side effects. RESULTS: Manipulation check revealed significant overlap of assigned and achieved concentrations related to drug intolerability. Completers' analysis of achieved concentrations revealed reduction in pain intensity was significantly greater for low-concentration desipramine (<60 ng/mL, mean Descriptor Differential Scale [DDS], 4.5) compared with placebo (DDS 6.2), higher concentrations of desipramine (>60 ng/mL, DDS 7.9), and all concentrations of fluoxetine (P < 0.05, DDS 7.1). Significant improvement in everyday function mirrored findings for pain intensity. CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary evidence for a low-concentration "therapeutic window" for noradrenergic analgesia may warrant additional study.

Cardiac mortality is higher around Christmas and New Year's than at any other time: the holidays as a risk factor for death.

BACKGROUND: Research published in Circulation has shown that cardiac mortality is highest during December and January. We investigated whether some of this spike could be ascribed to the Christmas/New Year's holidays rather than to climatic factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We fitted a locally weighted polynomial regression line to daily mortality to estimate the number of deaths expected during the holiday period, using the null hypothesis that natural-cause mortality is unaffected by the Christmas/New Year's holidays. We then compared the number of deaths expected during the holiday period, given the null hypothesis, with the number of deaths observed. For cardiac and noncardiac diseases, a spike in daily mortality occurs during the Christmas/New Year's holiday period. This spike persists after adjusting for trends and seasons and is particularly large for individuals who are dead on arrival at a hospital, die in the emergency department, or die as outpatients. For this group during the holiday period, 4.65% (+/-0.30%; 95% CI, 4.06% to 5.24%) more cardiac and 4.99% (+/-0.42%; 95% CI, 4.17% to 5.81%) more noncardiac deaths occur than would be expected if the holidays did not affect mortality. Cardiac mortality for individuals who are dead on arrival, die in the emergency department, or die as outpatients peaks at Christmas and again at New Year's. These twin holiday spikes also are conspicuous for noncardiac mortality. The excess in holiday mortality is growing proportionately larger over time, both for cardiac and noncardiac mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the Christmas/New Year's holidays are a risk factor for cardiac and noncardiac mortality. There are multiple explanations for this association, including the possibility that holiday-induced delays in seeking treatment play a role in producing the twin holiday spikes.

Nonparametric regression to the mean.

Available data may reflect a true but unknown random variable of interest plus an additive error, which is a nuisance. The problem in predicting the unknown random variable arises in many applied situations where measurements are contaminated with errors; it is known as the regression-to-the-mean problem. There exists a well known solution when both the distributions of the true underlying random variable and the contaminating errors are normal. This solution is given by the classical regression-to-the-mean formula, which has a data-shrinkage interpretation. We discuss the extension of this solution to cases where one or both of these distributions are unknown and demonstrate that the fully nonparametric case can be solved for the case of small contaminating errors. The resulting nonparametric regression-to-the-mean paradigm can be implemented by a straightforward data-sharpening algorithm that is based on local sample means. Asymptotic justifications and practical illustrations are provided.