[Epidemic forecasting and COVID-19]. / Prévisions épidémiques et Covid-19.

Since December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on global health and the economy. Epidemiological forecasts are crucial for governmental decisions, healthcare officials, and the general public. A collaboration between the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva and the Swiss Data Science Center created an interactive dashboard providing forecasts for over 200 countries and territories. This dashboard has been a valuable tool for the public and authorities alike. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of international collaborations and a robust national surveillance system. Data collection systems, pathogen-agnostic models, and communication tools need to be consolidated and maintained in operation.

Depuis décembre 2019, la pandémie de Covid-19 a eu un impact majeur sur la santé et l'économie mondiales. Les prévisions épidémiques sont essentielles pour les décisions gouvernementales, les responsables de la santé et le public. Un projet entre l'Institut de santé globale de l'Université de Genève et le Swiss Data Science Center a créé un tableau de bord interactif fournissant des prévisions pour plus de 200 pays et territoires, qui fut un outil précieux pour le public et les autorités. La pandémie a souligné l'importance des collaborations internationales et d'un système de surveillance national solide. Les systèmes de collecte de données, les modèles agnostiques aux pathogènes et les outils de communication doivent être consolidés et maintenus en fonctionnement.

Comparative inequalities in child dental caries across four countries: Examination of international birth cohorts and implications for oral health policy.

Child dental caries (i.e., cavities) are a major preventable health problem in most high-income countries. The aim of this study was to compare the extent of inequalities in child dental caries across four high-income countries alongside their child oral health policies. Coordinated analyses of data were conducted across four prospective population-based birth cohorts (Australia, n = 4085, born 2004; Québec, Canada, n = 1253, born 1997; Rotterdam, the Netherlands, n = 6690, born 2002; Southeast Sweden, n = 7445, born 1997), which enabled a high degree of harmonization. Risk ratios (adjusted) and slope indexes of inequality were estimated to quantify social gradients in child dental caries according to maternal education and household income. Children in the least advantaged quintile for income were at greater risk of caries, compared to the most advantaged quintile: Australia: AdjRR = 1.18, 95%CI = 1.04-1.34; Québec: AdjRR = 1.69, 95%CI = 1.36-2.10; Rotterdam: AdjRR = 1.67, 95%CI = 1.36-2.04; Southeast Sweden: AdjRR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.10-1.71). There was a higher risk of caries for children of mothers with the lowest level of education, compared to the highest: Australia: AdjRR = 1.18, 95%CI = 1.01-1.38; Southeast Sweden: AdjRR = 2.31, 95%CI = 1.81-2.96; Rotterdam: AdjRR = 1.98, 95%CI = 1.71-2.30; Québec: AdjRR = 1.16, 95%CI = 0.98-1.37. The extent of inequalities varied in line with jurisdictional policies for provision of child oral health services and preventive public health measures. Clear gradients of social inequalities in child dental caries are evident in high-income countries. Policy related mechanisms may contribute to the differences in the extent of these inequalities. Lesser gradients in settings with combinations of universal dental coverage and/or fluoridation suggest these provisions may ameliorate inequalities through additional benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups of children.

Household income and maternal education in early childhood and activity-limiting chronic health conditions in late childhood: findings from birth cohort studies from six countries.

BACKGROUND: We examined absolute and relative relationships between household income and maternal education during early childhood (<5 years) with activity-limiting chronic health conditions (ALCHC) during later childhood in six longitudinal, prospective cohorts from high-income countries (UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden, Netherlands, USA). METHODS: Relative inequality (risk ratios, RR) and absolute inequality (Slope Index of Inequality) were estimated for ALCHC during later childhood by maternal education categories and household income quintiles in early childhood. Estimates were adjusted for mother ethnicity, maternal age at birth, child sex and multiple births, and were pooled using meta-regression. RESULTS: Pooled estimates, with over 42 000 children, demonstrated social gradients in ALCHC for high maternal education versus low (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.85) and middle education (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.38); as well as for high household income versus lowest (RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.18) and middle quintiles (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.54). Absolute inequality showed decreasing ALCHC in all cohorts from low to high education (range: -2.85% Sweden, -13.36% Canada) and income (range: -1.8% Sweden, -19.35% Netherlands). CONCLUSION: We found graded relative risk of ALCHC during later childhood by maternal education and household income during early childhood in all cohorts. Absolute differences in ALCHC were consistently observed between the highest and lowest maternal education and household income levels across cohort populations. Our results support a potential role for generous, universal financial and childcare policies for families during early childhood in reducing the prevalence of activity limiting chronic conditions in later childhood.

Maternal exposure to black carbon and nitrogen dioxide during pregnancy and birth weight: Using machine-learning methods to achieve balance in inverse-probability weights.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight is associated with increased risks of health problems in infancy and later life. Among the epidemiological analyses suggesting an association between air pollution and birth weight, few have estimated the effects of black carbon (BC) or together with nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and even fewer studies have used causal modelling. METHODS: We examined 1,119,011 birth records between 2001/01/01 and 2015/12/31 from the Massachusetts Birth Registry to investigate causal associations between prenatal exposure to BC and NO2 and birth weight. We calculated mean residential BC and NO2 exposures 0-30, and 31-280 days prior to birth from validated spatial-temporal models. We fit generalized propensity score models with gradient boosting tuned by a new algorithm to achieve covariate balance, then fit marginal structural models with stabilized inverse-probability weights. RESULTS: Throughout pregnancy, the average birth weight would drop by 17.0 g (95% CI: 15.4, 18.6) for an IQR increase of 0.14 µg/m3 in BC and would independently drop by 19.9 g (95% CI: 18.6, 21.3) for an IQR increase of 9.8 ppb in NO2. Most of the negative effects of BC on birth weight are from 0 to 30 days before the delivery date. The estimated odds ratio of low birth weight for every IQR increase during the entire pregnancy was 1.131 (95% CI: 1.106, 1.156) for BC and 1.082 (95% CI: 1.062, 1.103) for NO2. CONCLUSIONS: We found that prenatal exposures to both BC and NO2 were associated with lower birth weight.

Social gradients in ADHD by household income and maternal education exposure during early childhood: Findings from birth cohort studies across six countries.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine social gradients in ADHD during late childhood (age 9-11 years) using absolute and relative relationships with socioeconomic status exposure (household income, maternal education) during early childhood (<5 years) in seven cohorts from six industrialised countries (UK, Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, USA, Sweden). METHODS: Secondary analyses were conducted for each birth cohort. Risk ratios, pooled risk estimates, and absolute inequality, measured by the Slope Index of Inequality (SII), were estimated to quantify social gradients in ADHD during late childhood by household income and maternal education measured during early childhood. Estimates were adjusted for child sex, mother age at birth, mother ethnicity, and multiple births. FINDINGS: All cohorts demonstrated social gradients by household income and maternal education in early childhood, except for maternal education in Quebec. Pooled risk estimates, relating to 44,925 children, yielded expected gradients (income: low 1.83(CI 1.38,2.41), middle 1.42(1.13,1.79), high (reference); maternal education: low 2.13(1.39,3.25), middle 1.42(1.13,1.79)). Estimates of absolute inequality using SII showed that the largest differences in ADHD prevalence between the highest and lowest levels of maternal education were observed in Australia (4% lower) and Sweden (3% lower); for household income, the largest differences were observed in Quebec (6% lower) and Canada (all provinces: 5% lower). CONCLUSION: Findings indicate that children in families with high household income or maternal education are less likely to have ADHD at age 9-11. Absolute inequality, in combination with relative inequality, provides a more complete account of the socioeconomic status and ADHD relationship in different high-income countries. While the study design precludes causal inference, the linear relation between early childhood social circumstances and later ADHD suggests a potential role for policies that promote high levels of education, especially among women, and adequate levels of household income over children's early years in reducing risk of later ADHD.

PM2.5 and hospital admissions among Medicare enrollees with chronic debilitating brain disorders.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term exposure to particulate matter<2.5 µm (PM2.5) has been linked to chronic debilitating brain disorders (CDBD), the role of short-term exposure in health care demand, and increased susceptibility for PM2.5-related health conditions, among Medicare enrollees with CDBD has received little attention. We used a causal modeling approach to assess the effect of short-term high PM2.5 exposure on all-cause admissions, and prevalent cause-specific admissions among Medicare enrollees with CDBD (Parkinson's disease-PD, Alzheimer's disease-AD and other dementia). METHODS: We constructed daily zipcode counts of hospital admissions of Medicare beneficiaries older than 65 across the United-States (2000-2014). We obtained daily PM2.5 estimates from a satellite-based model. A propensity score matching approach was applied to match high-pollution (PM2.5 > 17.4 µg/m3) to low-pollution zip code-days with similar background characteristics. Then, we estimated the percent change in admissions attributable to high pollution. We repeated the models restricting the analysis to zipcode-days with PM2.5 below of 35 µg/m3. RESULTS: We observed significant increases in all-cause hospital admissions (2.53% in PD and 2.49% in AD/dementia) attributable to high PM2.5 exposure. The largest observed effect for common causes was for pneumonia and urinary tract infection. All the effects were larger in CDBD compared to the general Medicare population, and similarly strong at levels of exposure considered safe by the EPA. CONCLUSION: We found Medicare beneficiaries with CDBD to be at higher risk of being admitted to the hospital following acute exposure to PM2.5 levels well below the National Ambient Air Quality Standard defined as safe by the EPA.

Long-term effects of PM2·5 on neurological disorders in the American Medicare population: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence links fine particulate matter (PM2·5) to premature mortality, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. However, less is known about the influence of PM2·5 on neurological disorders. We aimed to investigate the effect of long-term PM2·5 exposure on development of Parkinson's disease or Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. METHODS: We did a longitudinal cohort study in which we constructed a population-based nationwide open cohort including all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥65 years) in the contiguous United States (2000-16) with no exclusions. We assigned PM2·5 postal code (ie, ZIP code) concentrations based on mean annual predictions from a high-resolution model. To accommodate our very large dataset, we applied Cox-equivalent Poisson models with parallel computing to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for first hospital admission for Parkinson's disease or Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, adjusting for potential confounders in the health models. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2016, of 63 038 019 individuals who were aged 65 years or older during the study period, we identified 1·0 million cases of Parkinson's disease and 3·4 million cases of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias based on primary and secondary diagnosis billing codes. For each 5 µg/m3 increase in annual PM2·5 concentrations, the HR was 1·13 (95% CI 1·12-1·14) for first hospital admission for Parkinson's disease and 1·13 (1·12-1·14) for first hospital admission for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. For both outcomes, there was strong evidence of linearity at PM2·5 concentrations less than 16 µg/m3 (95th percentile of the PM2·5 distribution), followed by a plateaued association with increasingly larger confidence bands. INTERPRETATION: We provide evidence that exposure to annual mean PM2·5 in the USA is significantly associated with an increased hazard of first hospital admission with Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. For the ageing American population, improving air quality to reduce PM2·5 concentrations to less than current national standards could yield substantial health benefits by reducing the burden of neurological disorders. FUNDING: The Health Effects Institute, The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, The National Institute on Aging, and the HERCULES Center.

Parental Expectations Are Associated with Children's Sleep Duration and Sleep Hygiene Habits.

OBJECTIVE: Although parents recognize the importance of sleep, most have a limited understanding of children's sleep needs. This study examined whether parental expectations about sleep were linked to children and adolescent's sleep duration and sleep hygiene. METHOD: Participants included 376 unique parent-child dyads. Parents (mean age = 47.0 years, SD = 6.7) estimated the number of hours of sleep their children (mean age = 13.0 years, SD = 2.2; 9-17 years) needed. These estimates were age-matched with recommended pediatric guidelines of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine and the National Sleep Foundation to yield 3 groups: expect less (8%-11%), expect appropriate (85%-89%), and expect more (3%-4%). Sleep duration for school nights and weekends were reported by children and parents. Sleep hygiene included sleep-promoting practices (quiet, dark bedroom, regular bed/wake times, consistent routine) and sleep-interfering practices (physiological arousal, presleep worry, alcohol/smoking intake, daytime napping, screen time). RESULTS: Most parents (68.7%) endorsed that children do not get enough sleep. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the impact of parental expectations. For every additional hour of sleep expected, children slept between 15.5 (parent-report 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.0-22.0) and 17.9 minutes (child-report 95% CI, 9.7-26.2) longer on school nights, adjusted for age, sex, puberty, and parental education. For parents who expected less sleep than recommended, their children had the shortest sleep duration, least favorable sleeping environments, and greater presleep worry. CONCLUSION: Parental sleep expectations were directly linked to children's sleep duration. Pediatricians and primary care providers can mobilize knowledge to optimally convey accurate information about developmental sleep needs and recommended hours to parents to promote longer sleep.

Time-Varying Exposure to Air Pollution and Outcomes of in Vitro Fertilization among Couples from a Fertility Clinic.

BACKGROUND: A few studies suggest that air pollution may decrease fertility, but prospective studies and examinations of windows of susceptibility remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to examine the association between time-varying exposure to nitrogen dioxide ([Formula: see text]), ozone ([Formula: see text]), fine particulate matter [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]), and black carbon (BC) on in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes. METHODS: We included 345 women (522 IVF cycles) for the [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] analyses and 339 women (512 IVF cycles) for the BC analysis enrolled in a prospective cohort at a Boston fertility center (2004­2015). We used validated spatiotemporal models to estimate daily residential exposure to [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and BC. Multivariable discrete time Cox proportional hazards models with four periods [ovarian stimulation (OS), oocyte retrieval to embryo transfer (ET), ET to implantation, implantation to live birth] estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of failing at IVF. Time-dependent interactions were used to identify vulnerable periods. RESULTS: An interquartile range (IQR) increase in [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and BC throughout the IVF cycle was associated with an elevated odds of failing at IVF prior to live birth ([Formula: see text], 95% CI: 0.95, 1.23 for [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text], 95% CI: 0.88, 1.28 for [Formula: see text]; and [Formula: see text], 95% CI: 0.96, 1.41 for BC). This relationship significantly varied across the IVF cycle such that the association with higher exposure to air pollution during OS was strongest for early IVF failures. An IQR increase in [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and BC exposure during OS was associated with 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.69), 1.26 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.67), and 1.23 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.59) times the odds of failing prior to oocyte retrieval, and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.54), 1.27 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.65), and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.59) times the odds of failing prior to ET. CONCLUSION: Increased exposure to traffic-related pollutants was associated with higher odds of early IVF failure. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4601.

Supplemental Folate and the Relationship Between Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Livebirth Among Women Undergoing Assisted Reproduction.

Traffic-related air pollution has been linked to higher risks of infertility and miscarriage. We evaluated whether folate intake modified the relationship between air pollution and livebirth among women using assisted reproductive technology (ART). Our study included 304 women (513 cycles) presenting to a fertility center in Boston, Massachusetts (2005-2015). Diet and supplements were assessed by food frequency questionnaire. Spatiotemporal models estimated residence-based daily nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone, fine particulate, and black carbon concentrations in the 3 months before ART. We used generalized linear mixed models with interaction terms to evaluate whether the associations between air pollutants and livebirth were modified by folate intake, adjusting for age, body mass index, race, smoking, education, infertility diagnosis, and ART cycle year. Supplemental folate intake significantly modified the association of NO2 exposure and livebirth (P = 0.01). Among women with supplemental folate intakes of <800 µg/day, the odds of livebirth were 24% (95% confidence interval: 2, 42) lower for every 20-parts-per-billion increase in NO2 exposure. There was no association among women with intakes of ≥800 µg/day. There was no effect modification of folate on the associations between other air pollutants and livebirth. High supplemental folate intake might protect against the adverse reproductive consequences of traffic-related air pollution.

A spatio-temporal prediction model based on support vector machine regression: Ambient Black Carbon in three New England States.

Fine ambient particulate matter has been widely associated with multiple health effects. Mitigation hinges on understanding which sources are contributing to its toxicity. Black Carbon (BC), an indicator of particles generated from traffic sources, has been associated with a number of health effects however due to its high spatial variability, its concentration is difficult to estimate. We previously fit a model estimating BC concentrations in the greater Boston area; however this model was built using limited monitoring data and could not capture the complex spatio-temporal patterns of ambient BC. In order to improve our predictive ability, we obtained more data for a total of 24,301 measurements from 368 monitors over a 12 year period in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. We also used Nu-Support Vector Regression (nu-SVR) - a machine learning technique which incorporates nonlinear terms and higher order interactions, with appropriate regularization of parameter estimates. We then used a generalized additive model to refit the residuals from the nu-SVR and added the residual predictions to our earlier estimates. Both spatial and temporal predictors were included in the model which allowed us to capture the change in spatial patterns of BC over time. The 10 fold cross validated (CV) R2 of the model was good in both cold (10-fold CV R2 = 0.87) and warm seasons (CV R2 = 0.79). We have successfully built a model that can be used to estimate short and long-term exposures to BC and will be useful for studies looking at various health outcomes in MA, RI and Southern NH.

Doubly Robust Additive Hazards Models to Estimate Effects of a Continuous Exposure on Survival.

BACKGROUND: The effect of an exposure on survival can be biased when the regression model is misspecified. Hazard difference is easier to use in risk assessment than hazard ratio and has a clearer interpretation in the assessment of effect modifications. METHODS: We proposed two doubly robust additive hazards models to estimate the causal hazard difference of a continuous exposure on survival. The first model is an inverse probability-weighted additive hazards regression. The second model is an extension of the doubly robust estimator for binary exposures by categorizing the continuous exposure. We compared these with the marginal structural model and outcome regression with correct and incorrect model specifications using simulations. We applied doubly robust additive hazard models to the estimation of hazard difference of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns) on survival using a large cohort of 13 million older adults residing in seven states of the Southeastern United States. RESULTS: We showed that the proposed approaches are doubly robust. We found that each 1 µg m increase in annual PM2.5 exposure was associated with a causal hazard difference in mortality of 8.0 × 10 (95% confidence interval 7.4 × 10, 8.7 × 10), which was modified by age, medical history, socioeconomic status, and urbanicity. The overall hazard difference translates to approximately 5.5 (5.1, 6.0) thousand deaths per year in the study population. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approaches improve the robustness of the additive hazards model and produce a novel additive causal estimate of PM2.5 on survival and several additive effect modifications, including social inequality.

Modeling indoor particulate exposures in inner-city school classrooms.

Outdoor air pollution penetrates buildings and contributes to total indoor exposures. We investigated the relationship of indoor to outdoor particulate matter in inner-city school classrooms. The School Inner City Asthma Study investigates the effect of classroom-based environmental exposures on students with asthma in the northeast United States. Mixed effects linear models were used to determine the relationships between indoor PM2.5 (particulate matter) and black carbon (BC), and their corresponding outdoor concentrations, and to develop a model for predicting exposures to these pollutants. The indoor-outdoor sulfur ratio was used as an infiltration factor of outdoor fine particles. Weeklong concentrations of PM2.5 and BC in 199 samples from 136 classrooms (30 school buildings) were compared with those measured at a central monitoring site averaged over the same timeframe. Mixed effects regression models found significant random intercept and slope effects, which indicate that: (1) there are important PM2.5 sources in classrooms; (2) the penetration of outdoor PM2.5 particles varies by school and (3) the site-specific outside PM2.5 levels (inferred by the models) differ from those observed at the central monitor site. Similar results were found for BC except for lack of indoor sources. The fitted predictions from the sulfur-adjusted models were moderately predictive of observed indoor pollutant levels (out of sample correlations: PM2.5: r2=0.68, BC; r2=0.61). Our results suggest that PM2.5 has important classroom sources, which vary by school. Furthermore, using these mixed effects models, classroom exposures can be accurately predicted for dates when central site measures are available but indoor measures are not available.

Birth Outcomes in a Prospective Pregnancy-Birth Cohort Study of Environmental Risk Factors in Kuwait: The TRACER Study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid development and westernisation in Kuwait and other Gulf states have been accompanied by rising rates of obesity, diabetes, asthma, and other chronic conditions. Prenatal experiences and exposures may be important targets for intervention. We undertook a prospective pregnancy-birth cohort study in Kuwait, the TRansgenerational Assessment of Children's Environmental Risk (TRACER) Study, to examine prenatal risk factors for early childhood obesity. This article describes the methodology and results of follow-up through birth. METHODS: Women were recruited at antenatal clinical visits. Interviewers administered questionnaires during the pregnancy and collected and banked biological samples. Children are being followed up with quarterly maternal interviews, annual anthropometric measurements, and periodic collection of biosamples. Frequencies of birth outcomes (i.e. stillbirth, preterm birth, small and large for gestational age, and macrosomia) were calculated as a function of maternal characteristics and behaviours. RESULTS: Two thousand four hundred seventy-eight women were enrolled, and 2254 women were followed to delivery. Overall, frequencies of stillbirth (0.6%), preterm birth (9.3%), and small for gestational age (7.4%) were comparable to other developed countries, but not strongly associated with maternal characteristics or behaviours. Macrosomia (6.1%) and large for gestational age (23.0%) were higher than expected and positively associated with pre-pregnancy maternal overweight/obesity. CONCLUSIONS: A large birth cohort has been established in Kuwait. The collected risk factors and banked biosamples will allow examination of the effects of prenatal exposures on the development of chronic disease in children. Initial results suggest that maternal overweight/obesity before pregnancy should be targeted to prevent macrosomia and its associated sequelae of childhood overweight/obesity.