ABSTRACT
ObjectiveThis study assessed the risk perception and preventive behavioral practice towards COVID-19 just prior to the second wave of corona, as well as the impact of perceived risk on preventive practices. Design, setting, participants, and outcome measuresA cross-sectional study was conducted between December 2020 and January 2021, involving 1382 respondents aged 18 years and above from all eight divisions in Bangladesh. We used multiple linear regression to identify sociodemographic predictors of risk perception and multiple logistic regression to determine the relationship between risk perception and preventive practice. ResultsLow risk perception regarding COVID-19 was present among one-fifth of the respondents (19.8%). Younger age, being male, low education, single marital status, and rural residence were significantly associated with a low perceived risk of COVID-19. Hand washing and wearing mask were practiced by 80% and 67% of respondents, respectively. A low prevalence was noticed for social distancing (31%), avoiding social gathering (31%), and covering face while coughing/sneezing (18%). Furthermore, respondents with a high risk perception were found to be more likely than those with a low risk perception to practice all recommended COVID-19 preventive behaviors-hand washing (OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.5, 3.7), mask use (OR=3.4, 95% CI=2.3, 5), social distancing (OR=3.7, 95% CI=2.4, 5.6), sanitizer use (OR=2.7, 95% CI=1.8, 4.1), avoiding gathering (OR=2.3, 95% CI=1.6, 3.5), avoid touching face and mouth (OR=2.8, 95% CI=1.5, 5.3), and covering mouth while coughing/sneezing (OR=7, 95% CI=3.6, 13.4). ConclusionConsiderable number of Bangladeshi adults had low risk perception and low practice of some vital COVID-19 preventive behaviors before the onset of second wave of corona. All preventive practices were also influenced by respondents risk perception. This highlights the importance of strengthening and optimizing risk communication strategy even when the number of corona cases are low. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDYO_LIThe study explored the perceived risk and preventive practices for COVID-19 in Bangladesh right before the recent onset COVID-19 second wave in the South Asian region, and included a larger sample size than previous studies. C_LIO_LIUnlike most other studies on COVID-19 risk perception that used online surveys, this study administered a face-to-face data collection from both urban and rural settings across all the eight divisions of Bangladesh. C_LIO_LIThis is the first study in Bangladesh that investigated the effect of perceived risk of COVID-19 on the practice of a range of preventive behaviors, and used an analytical approach to quantify risk perception. C_LIO_LIRespondents self-reported information on COVID-19 preventive behavior practice is subject to be influenced by recall and desirability bias. C_LIO_LIThe study was unable to explore the respondents frequency and adherence to preventive practices, as well as the influence of psychological factors on preventive behaviors. C_LI
ABSTRACT
In this projection exercise, we analyzed the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and used multiple methods to characterize the epidemic curve. We merged several publicly available data sets for the purpose. Projections using actual Government data as of June 16, 2020 reveals that the epidemic curve for Bangladesh may be different from that of developed countries and quite similar to such curves in countries in the region. This is true, both in terms of incidence of cases (total number of cases per million population) and length of the epidemic (months to peak or flatten the epidemic curve). We find that while Bangladesh went into lockdown early, efforts to maintain lockdown at a national level was relaxed and new cases accelerated; with significant growth happening since lifting of lockdown on May 31. Our estimates indicate prevalence of COVID-19 may be between 200,000 and 600,000 towards end of the year, may take 9 months (270 days) to flatten the epidemic curve, lifting of the lockdown may have increased total cases by 60 to 100% and may have prolonged the epidemic by additional 2-3 months.
