Comparison between CHA2DS2-VASc and the new R2CHADS2 and ATRIA scores at predicting thromboembolic event in non-anticoagulated and anticoagulated patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Accurate risk stratification is considered the first and most important step in the management of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). We compared the performance of the widely used CHA2DS2-VASc and the recently developed R2CHADS2 and ATRIA scores, for predicting thromboembolic (TE) event in either non-anticoagulated or anticoagulated patients with NVAF. METHODS: The non-anticoagulated cohort was comprised of 154 patients, whereas 911 patients formed the cohort of patients on vitamin-K-antagonist. The scores were computed using the criteria mentioned in their developmental cohorts. Measures of performance for the risk scores were evaluated at predicting TE event. RESULTS: In the non-anticoagulated cohort, 9 TE events occurred during 11 ± 2.7 months. CHA2DS2-VASc showed significant association with TE occurrence: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.58 (95 % confidence interval [95 % IC] 1.01-2.46), but R2CHADS2 and ATRIA did not (HR = 1.23 (95 % CI 0.86-1.77) and 1.20 (95 % CI 0.93-1.56), respectively. In the anticoagulated cohort, after 10 ± 3 months of follow up, 18 TE events were developed. In that cohort, the three scores showed similar association with TE risk: HR = 1.49 (95 % CI 1.13-1.97), 1.41 (95 % CI 1.13-1.77) and 1.37 (95 % CI 1.12-1.66) for CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2 and ATRIA, respectively. In both cohorts, no TE event occurred in patients classified in the low risk category according to CHA2DS2-VASc or R2CHADS2. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of NVAF patients, CHA2DS2-VASc has better association with TE events than the new R2CHADS2 and ATRIA risk scores in the non-anticoagulated cohort. CHA2DS2-VASc and R2CHADS2 can identify patients at truly low risk regardless of the anticoagulation status.

Systemic sclerosis: a rare cause of heart failure?

Systemic sclerosis (SS) is a chronic disease in which there may be multisystem involvement. It is rare (estimated prevalence: 0.5-2/10000) with high morbidity and mortality, and there is as yet no curative treatment. We report the case of a young woman newly diagnosed with SS, in whom decompensated heart failure was the main manifestation.

Renal function assessment in atrial fibrillation: Usefulness of chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration vs re-expressed 4 variable modification of diet in renal disease.

AIM: To compare the performance of the re-expressed Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation vs the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We studied 911 consecutive patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on vitamin-K antagonist. The performance of the re-expressed Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation vs the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation with respect to either a composite endpoint of major bleeding, thromboembolic events and all-cause mortality or each individual component of the composite endpoint was assessed using continuous and categorical ≥ 60, 59-30, and < 30 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) estimated glomerular filtration rate. RESULTS: During 10 ± 3 mo, the composite endpoint occurred in 98 (10.8%) patients: 30 patients developed major bleeding, 18 had thromboembolic events, and 60 died. The new equation provided lower prevalence of renal dysfunction < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (32.9%), compared with the re-expressed equation (34.1%). Estimated glomerular filtration rate from both equations was independent predictor of composite endpoint (HR = 0.98 and 0.97 for the re-expressed and the new equation, respectively; P < 0.0001) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.98 for both equations, P < 0.01). Strong association with thromboembolic events was observed only when estimated glomerular filtration rate was < 30 mL/min per 1.73 m(2): HR is 5.1 for the re-expressed equation, and HR = 5.0 for the new equation. No significant association with major bleeding was observed for both equations. CONCLUSION: The new equation reduced the prevalence of renal dysfunction. Both equations performed similarly in predicting major adverse outcomes.

Evaluation of SAMe-TT2R2 risk score for predicting the quality of anticoagulation control in a real-world cohort of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation on vitamin-K antagonists.

AIMS: Clinicians need to get better at identifying patients who would have poor quality of anticoagulation control with vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs). We assessed the predictive ability of SAMe-TT2R2 score, recently conceived for the prior purpose, and examined its relationship with major bleeding, thromboembolic (TE) complications, and death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Retrospectively, 911 consecutive patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) started on VKAs within 8 months were studied. The percentage of international normalized ratios in therapeutic range (PINRR) at different levels was used as a metric of anticoagulation quality. We also tested the SAMe-TT2R2 predictability for major bleeding, TE complications, and death throughout 10 ± 3 months. The PINRR decreased from 62% at zero point to 53% at ≥4 points of SAMe-TT2R2. 82.1% of patients who achieved PINRR ≥ 70% had 0 or 1 point of SAMe-TT2R2. SAMe-TT2R2 performed significantly better at PINRR 70% than at 65 and 60% (c-statistic = 0.60 vs. c-statistic = 0.56). The calibration of SAMe-TT2R2 was excellent (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-values ≥ 0.6). SAMe-TT2R2 showed significant association with the composite outcome of major bleeding, TE complications, and death [n = 98; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.60]; the c-statistic was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.51-0.62) and P = 0.03. As individual outcomes, SAMe-TT2R2 was significantly associated with death (n = 60; HR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.03-1.69), but not with either major bleeding (n = 30; HR = 1.2; 95% CI: 0.85-1.76) or TE complications (n = 15; HR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.58-1.77). CONCLUSION: Among NVAF patients, SAMe-TT2R2 could represent a useful clinical tool to identify patients who would have poor quality of anticoagulation control with VKAs. SAMe-TT2R2 successfully predicts the composite outcome of major bleeding, TE complications, and death.