Were metabolic and other chronic diseases the driven onset epidemic forces of COVID-19 in Mexico?

The underline hypothesis of this study was that SARS-CoV-2 can infect individuals regardless of health condition, sex, and age in opposition to the classical epidemiological assumption of an identifiable susceptible subpopulation for epidemic development. To address this issue, a population cohort with 24.4 million metadata associated with 226,089 official RT-qPCR positive and 283,450 negative cases, including 27,769 deceased, linked putatively to B.1. and B.1.1. SARS-CoV-2 lineages were analyzed. The analysis baseline was to determine the infection and mortality structure of the diseased cohort at the onset-exponential phase of the first epidemic wave in Mexico under the assumption of limited herd immunity. Individuals with nonchronic diseases (NOCDs) were compared with those exhibiting at least one of 10 chronic diseases (CDs) adjusted by age and sex. Risk factors for infection and mortality were estimated with classification and regression tree (CART) and cluster analysis based on Spearman's matrix of rho-values in RStudio®, complemented with two proposed mortality indices. SARS-CoV-2 infection was independent of health condition (52.8% NOCD vs. 47.2% CDs; p = 0.001-0.009) but influenced by age >46 in one risk analysis scenario (p < 0.001). Sex contributed 9.7% to the overall risk. The independent effect was supported by the health structure of negative cases with a similar tendency but a higher proportion of NOCDs (61.4%, p = 0.007). The infection probability in individuals with one CD was determined by the disease type and age, which was higher in those older individuals (≥56 years) exhibiting diabetes (12.3%, cp = 0.0006), hypertension (10.1%, cp < 0.0001), and obesity (7.8%, cp = 0.001). In contrast, the mortality risk was heavily influenced by CD conditioned by sex and age, accounting for 72.3% of total deaths (p = 0.001-0.008). Significant mortality risk (48%) was comprised of women and men (w, m) aged ≥56 years with diabetes (19% w and 27.9% m, cp < 0.0004), hypertension (11.5% w, cp = 0.0001), and CKD (3.5% w and 5.3% m, cp = 0.0009). Older people with diabetes and hypertension comorbidity increased the risk to 60.5% (p = 0.001). Based on a mortality-weighted index, women were more vulnerable to preexisting metabolic or cardiovascular diseases. These findings support our hypothesis and justify the need for surveillance systems at a communitarian level. This is the first study addressing this fundamental epidemiological question.

Surveillance Web System and Mouthwash-Saliva qPCR for Labor Ambulatory SARS-CoV-2 Detection and Prevention.

This study provides a safe and low-cost in-house protocol for RT-qPCR-based detection of SARS-CoV-2 using mouthwash-saliva self-collected specimens to achieve clinical and epidemiological surveillance in a real-time web environment applied to ambulatory populations. The in-house protocol comprises a mouthwash-saliva self-collected specimen, heat virus inactivation, and primers to target virus N-gene region and the human RPP30-gene. Aligning with 209 SARS-CoV-2 sequences confirmed specificity including the Alpha variant from the UK. Development, validation, and statistical comparison with official nasopharyngeal swabbing RT-qPCR test were conducted with 115 specimens of ambulatory volunteers. A web-mobile application platform was developed to integrate a real-time epidemiological and clinical core baseline database with mouthwash-saliva RT-qPCR testing. Nine built-in algorithms were generated for decision-making on testing, confining, monitoring, and self-reports to family, social, and work environments. Epidemiological and clinical follow-up and SARS-CoV-2 testing generated a database of 37,351 entries allowing individual decision-making for prevention. Mouthwash-saliva had higher sensitivity than nasopharyngeal swabbing in detecting asymptomatic and mild symptomatic cases with 720 viral copy number (VCN)/mL as the detection limit (Ct = 37.6). Cycling threshold and viral loading were marginally different (p = 0.057) between asymptomatic (35 Ct ± 2.8; 21,767.7 VCN/mL, range 720-77,278) and symptomatic (31.3 Ct ± 4.5; 747,294.3 VCN/mL, range 1433.6-3.08 × 106). We provided proof-of-concept evidence of effective surveillance to target asymptomatic and moderate symptomatic ambulatory individuals based on integrating a bio-safety level II laboratory, self-collected, low-risk, low-cost detection protocol, and a real-time digital monitoring system. Mouthwash-saliva was effective for SARS-CoV-2 sampling for the first time at the community level.

The First exploratory spatial distribution analysis of tuberculosis and associated factors in Tonala, Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: The US-Mexico region is at high risk of elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence due to mobility and migration. Knowledge of how socio-demographic factors varies geographically, provides clues to understanding the determinants of tuberculosis and may provide guidance for regional prevention and control strategies to improve public health in Mexico. The aim of the present study was to describe the epidemiologic characteristics and spatial patterns of the incidence of tuberculosis in Tonala, Jalisco (Mexico) from 2013-2015. METHODOLOGY: The Surveillance System Database from the Health Department, complemented by information from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, was used to obtain data for a spatial-temporal analysis of TB cases. For the geographical analysis map creation and geoinformation storing, ArcGIS software was used. RESULTS: This study sought to characterize problem areas and jurisdictional locations of TB via a spatial approach based on analyses of case distributions and individual patient variables. The study found that tuberculosis cases were dispersed throughout Tonala County and were mainly concentrated on the Guadalajara city border. The TB cases were mainly individuals between 31 and 45 years old. Most of the cases reported during the observation period were male patients, and most cases primarily had lung involvement; however, there were quite a few cases with lymph node and intestinal disease. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that TB cases are essentially located in areas close to the city of Guadalajara and that most TB cases were pulmonary cases spread throughout the whole jurisdiction.