Modelling the acclimation capacity of coral reefs to a warming ocean.

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

The long-term legacy of plastic mass production.

Mismanaged plastic waste is transported via rivers or city drains into the ocean where it accumulates in coastal sediments, ocean gyres and the deep ocean. Plastic harms marine biota and may ultimately return to humans via the food chain. Private initiatives proposing to collect plastic from the sea and rivers have gained widespread attention, especially in the media. However, few of these methods are proven concepts and it remains unclear how effective they are. Here we estimate the amount of plastic in the global surface ocean to assess the long-term legacy of plastic mass production, calculate the time required to clean up the oceans with river barriers and clean up devices, and explore the fate of collected plastic waste. We find that the projected impact of both single and multiple clean up devices is very modest. A significant reduction of plastic debris in the ocean can be only achieved with collection at rivers or with a combination of river barriers and clean up devices. We also show that the incineration and production of plastic has a significant long-term effect on the global atmospheric carbon budget. We conclude that a combination of reduced plastic emissions and reinforced collection is the only way to rid the ocean of plastic waste.

Confidence intervals and sample size for estimating the prevalence of plastic debris in seabird nests.

Evidence is accumulating about the impacts of plastics on marine life. The prevalence of plastics in seabird nests has been used as an indicator of levels of this pollutant in the ocean. However, the lack of a framework for defining sample sizes and errors associated with estimating the prevalence of plastic in nests prevents researchers from optimising time and reducing impacts of fieldwork. We present a method to determine the confidence intervals for the prevalence of debris in seabird nests and provide, for the first time, information on the prevalence of these items in nests of the Hartlaub's gull Larus hartlaubii, the African penguin Spheniscus demersus, the great white pelican Pelecanus onocrotalus, and the white-breasted cormorant Phalacrocorax lucidus in South Africa. The method, based on observations and resampling simulations and tested here for nests of 12 seabird species from 15 locations worldwide, allows for straightforward hypothesis testing. Appropriate sample sizes can be defined by combining this method with a Bayesian approach. We show that precise estimates of prevalence of debris in nests can be obtained by sampling around 250 nests. Smaller sample sizes can be useful for obtaining rough estimates. For the Hartlaub's gull, the African penguin, the great white pelican, and the white-breasted cormorant, debris were present in 0.75%, 3.00%, 6.41%, and 25.62% of the respective nests. Our approach will help researchers to determine errors associated with the prevalence of debris recorded in seabird nests and to optimise time and costs spent collecting data. It can also be applied to estimate confidence intervals and define sample sizes for assessing prevalence of plastic ingestion by any organism.

Interspecific variation of essential and non-essential trace elements in sympatric seabirds.

Chemical pollution is a growing issue for ocean ecosystems, threatening especially apex predators because they bioaccumulate persistent chemical pollutants such as non-essential trace elements. The trophic position is thus a key aspect when assessing the impacts of environmental pollution in marine organisms. Here we investigate the differences in the concentrations of essential (Cu, Cr, Se, and Zn) and non-essential elements (Hg, Al, As, Cd, and Sr), in muscular and hepatic tissues of four sympatric non-migratory seabirds (namely Sula leucogaster, Larus dominicanus, Fregata magnificens, and Thalasseus acuflavidus), which were found stranded along the Brazilian coast. The observed hepatic and muscular interspecific differences in elemental concentrations indicated that these sympatric seabirds are differently exposed to persistent contaminants circulating in the food web due to differences with respect to known feeding behaviours and prey preferences. Moreover, we found a consistent co-accumulative relationship between Se and Hg molar levels in liver tissues with mean Se:Hg molar ratio above 1. This relationship supports previous studies indicating that Se, via the formation of SeHg complexes, plays an essential biochemical role in the detoxification process of methyl mercury in seabirds. Our results suggest that feeding behaviour is an important factor associated to the interspecific differences of trace element concentrations in seabirds. However, traits other than feeding preferences (e.g. age) may also play an important role in the accumulation of these elements.

Phytoplankton size diversity and ecosystem function relationships across oceanic regions.

Trait diversity, a key component of biodiversity, mediates many essential ecosystem functions and services. However, the mechanisms behind such relationships at large spatial scales are not fully understood. Here we adopt the functional biogeography approach to investigate how the size composition of phytoplankton communities relates to primary production and export production along a broad latitudinal gradient. Using in situ phytoplankton size distribution data and a trait-based model, we find an increase in the average phytoplankton size, size diversity, primary production and export when moving from low to high latitudes. Our analysis indicates that the interplay between spatio-temporal heterogeneities in environmental conditions and a trade-off between the high affinity for nutrients of smaller cells and the ability to avoid predation by larger cells are the main mechanisms driving the observed patterns. Our results also suggest that variations in size diversity alone do not directly lead to changes in primary production and export. The trade-off thus introduces a feedback that influences the relationship between size diversity and ecosystem functions. These findings support the importance of environmentally mediated trade-offs as crucial mechanisms shaping biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships at large spatial scales.

Stranding Events of Kogia Whales along the Brazilian Coast.

The genus Kogia, which comprises only two extant species, Kogia sima and Kogia breviceps, represents one of the least known groups of cetaceans in the global ocean. In some coastal regions, however, stranding events of these species have been relatively common over the last decades. Stranding provides the opportunity to investigate the biology of these cetaceans and to explore the epidemiological aspects associated with the mortality of the organisms found on the beach. A number of disturbances (including pelagic fisheries, chemical pollution, boat strikes, and noise pollution) have been confirmed to pose a particular threat to the Kogia species. However, no study has yet investigated potential relationships between environmental conditions and stranding events. Here we analyse how a collection of environmental, physical, and biological variables, such as wind, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and chlorophyll-a, correlate to Kogia stranding events along the Brazilian coast. The results of our statistical analyses suggest that K. sima is more likely found in warm tropical waters, which provide an explanation for the high frequency of stranding in northeastern Brazilian coast. In contrast, K. breviceps appears to have a preference for temperate and productive waters. Wind speed results to be also an important factor for predicting Kogia strandings in Brazilian coast. Additionally, literature information in combination with our own data and analyses of stomach contents confirms that oceanic cephalopods constitute the primary nutritional source of both Kogia species. By using the available information as a qualitative proxy for habitat preference and feeding ecology, our study provides a novel and comprehensive assessment of Kogia stranding data in relation to environmental conditions along the Brazilian coast.

Mechanisms shaping size structure and functional diversity of phytoplankton communities in the ocean.

The factors regulating phytoplankton community composition play a crucial role in structuring aquatic food webs. However, consensus is still lacking about the mechanisms underlying the observed biogeographical differences in cell size composition of phytoplankton communities. Here we use a trait-based model to disentangle these mechanisms in two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean. In our model, the phytoplankton community can self-assemble based on a trade-off emerging from relationships between cell size and (1) nutrient uptake, (2) zooplankton grazing, and (3) phytoplankton sinking. Grazing 'pushes' the community towards larger cell sizes, whereas nutrient uptake and sinking 'pull' the community towards smaller cell sizes. We find that the stable environmental conditions of the tropics strongly balance these forces leading to persistently small cell sizes and reduced size diversity. In contrast, the seasonality of the temperate region causes the community to regularly reorganize via shifts in species composition and to exhibit, on average, bigger cell sizes and higher size diversity than in the tropics. Our results raise the importance of environmental variability as a key structuring mechanism of plankton communities in the ocean and call for a reassessment of the current understanding of phytoplankton diversity patterns across latitudinal gradients.