Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. METHODS/FINDINGS: The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. CONCLUSION: An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

Isolation and characterization of multidrug-resistant Klebsiella spp. isolated from shrimp imported from Thailand.

A study was undertaken to isolate and characterize tetracycline and nalidixic acid-resistant Klebsiella spp. in farm-raised, imported shrimp sold in the United States. Sixty-seven multiple antibiotic-resistant Klebsiella spp. strains were isolated from imported shrimp samples. Using morphological and biochemical methods, fifty-three strains were tentatively identified as Klebsiella pneumoniae and fourteen as K. oxytoca. Although all isolates were resistant to tetracycline, only 8 were resistant to nalidixic acid. These 8 isolates were further screened by PCR for quinolone resistance genes (qnrA, B, S, gyrA, B and parC). PCR protocols failed to amplify any qnr genes. The purified PCR amplicons of gyrA, gyrB and parC were sequenced and analyzed for point mutations that confer resistance to fluoroquinolone antibiotics. Analysis of the sequences of the gyrA amplicons from nalidixic acid-resistant Klebsiella spp. indicated two point mutations in gyrA at positions 83 (Ser→Phe) and 87 (Asp→Ala). Sequence analysis of the parC amplicons indicated an amino acid change at position 80 (Ser→Ile). No mutations were detected in gyrB. Template DNA from all isolates was screened for tetracycline resistance genes (tetA-E). Oligonucleotide primers specifically targeting a 305-bp region of tetB and a 477-bp region of tetD successfully amplified sequences from 91.0 and 44.0% of the isolates, respectively. None of the isolates contained tetA, tetC or tetE genes. Plasmids (2.0-16.0kb) were found in 23 of the 67 isolates. XbaI-PFGE identified 32 distinct macro restriction patterns (mrps) among the 61 multiple drug-resistant Klebsiella spp. that were typable. Our results indicate that imported shrimp is a reservoir for multidrug resistant Klebsiella spp. and potential health risks posed by such strains should not be underestimated.

Seroprevalence of HIV-1, HIV-2, and HIV-1 group O in Nigeria: evidence for a growing increase of HIV infection.

To determine current data on HIV infection and to further confirm the presence of HIV-1 group O infection in Nigeria, 2300 samples from five states were tested for the presence of HIV antibody. A convenience sampling was obtained from pregnant women, tuberculosis (TB) patients, commercial sex workers (CSWs), blood donors, patients with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), patients with skin diseases, male clients of CSWs, outpatients suspected to have AIDS, truck drivers, and community dwellers. With the exception of pregnant women, the HIV prevalences in all these groups were high: 60.6% in CSWs, 16.2% in TB patients, 7.7% in blood donors in some states, and 16% in the rural area of Kano State. Male clients of CSWs, truck drivers, and STD patients had prevalences of 7.8%, 8.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. Regional differences in relation to HIV prevalences were observed; HIV-2 and most of the HIV-1/2 infections were found in the southern states of Nigeria. Higher HIV prevalences were observed in the north-northeast in pregnant women, TB patients, and CSWs, but for blood donors, higher rates were seen in the southeast-southwest. One asymptomatic 50-year-old woman, a community dweller in Kano, was identified to be HIV-1 group O-positive. Compared with data from national surveillance studies in 1991/1992 and 1993/1994, a substantial increase in HIV infection was observed. Our results show a growing incidence of HIV infection in Nigeria and suggest the presence of a rural HIV epidemic. The identification of HIV-1 group O in Kano shows that this virus strain is geographically widespread in Nigeria.

PIP: To obtain current data on HIV infection in Nigeria by population group, a seroanalysis of 2300 samples from 5 states (Lagos, Cross River, Borno, Kano, and Jugawa) was conducted during March-May 1996. The sample included commercial sex workers, pregnant women, tuberculosis patients, blood donors, patients with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), patients with skin diseases, male clients of commercial sex workers, outpatients suspected to have AIDS, truck drivers, and community residents. Overall HIV prevalence was 40.7%. With the exception of pregnant women (1.7%), HIV prevalence was high in all subgroups: 60.6% in commercial sex workers, 21.2% in STD patients, 16.2% in tuberculosis patients, and 16.0% in rural areas of Kano state. The majority of HIV-positive women were 21-30 years of age, while HIV-infected men were primarily over 40 years of age. Compared with data from national seroprevalence studies conducted during 1991-92 and 1993-94, this study confirms a substantial recent increase in HIV infection in Nigeria. Of the 330 antibody-positive specimens, HIV-1 was the predominant infection in 315; there were 3 cases of HIV-2 and 12 cases involving dual HIV-1/2 infection. Only 1 serum sample was positive for HIV-1 group O antibodies. The high HIV prevalence detected among commercial sex workers indicates the potential for rapid diffusion of HIV to the general population.