Prediction of myocardial infarction versus cardiac death by gated myocardial perfusion SPECT: risk stratification by the amount of stress-induced ischemia and the poststress ejection fraction.

UNLABELLED: The combination of myocardial perfusion and poststress ejection fraction (EF) provides incremental prognostic information. This study assessed predictors of nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) versus cardiac death (CD) by gated myocardial SPECT and examined the value of integrating the amount of ischemia and poststress EF data in risk stratification. METHODS: We identified 2,686 patients who underwent resting (201)Tl/stress (99m)Tc-sestamibi gated SPECT and were monitored for >1 y. Patients who underwent revascularization < or = 60 d after the nuclear test were censored from the prognostic analysis. Visual scoring of perfusion images used 20 segments and a scale of 0--4. Poststress EF was automatically generated. RESULTS: Cox regression analysis showed that after adjusting for prescan data, the most powerful predictor of CD was poststress EF, whereas the best predictor of MI was the amount of ischemia (summed difference score [SDS]). Integration of the EF and SDS yielded effective stratification of patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk subgroups. Patients with EF >50% and a large amount of ischemia were at intermediate risk (2%--3%), whereas those with mild or moderate ischemia were at low risk of CD (<1%/y). Patients with EF between 30% and 50% were at intermediate risk even in the presence of only mild or moderate ischemia. In patients with EF <30%, the CD rate was high (>4%/y) irrespective of the amount of ischemia. CONCLUSION: Poststress EF is the best predictor of CD, whereas the amount of ischemia is the best predictor of nonfatal MI. Integration of perfusion and function data improves stratification of patients into low, intermediate, and high risk of CD.

Incremental prognostic value of rest-redistribution (201)Tl single-photon emission computed tomography.

BACKGROUND: The incremental prognostic value of rest-redistribution (201)Tl compared with stress and rest perfusion abnormalities has not been defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 458 patients who underwent rest (201)Tl /stress (exercise or adenosine) (99m)Tc sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and had late (18 to 24 hours) (201)Tl imaging, were not revascularized within 60 days of SPECT, and were followed up at >1 year. SPECT images were visually analyzed with the use of a 20-segment model on a scale of 0 to 4. Thirty-seven cardiac deaths (CDs) and 17 nonfatal myocardial infarctions occurred. Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the presence of a large amount of rest (201)Tl reversibility (rest-late summed difference score [SDS] of >8) was a significant predictor of CD (chi(2) = 5.77, P = 0.02) and CD or myocardial infarction (chi(2) = 5.3, P = 0.02). The CD rate was 9.3% y(-1) in patients with rest-late SDS of >8 compared with 3.6% y(-1) in patients with a mild/moderate amount of rest reversibility (rest-late SDS 3 to 8) and 3.4% y(-1) in patients with no rest reversibility (rest-late SDS <3) (P = 0.029). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significantly lower cumulative survival rates in patients with rest-late SDS of >8 (P = 0.01). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the presence of a large amount of resting reversibility was an independent and incremental predictor of CD after adjustment for stress and rest perfusion information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that resting reversibility was not an independent predictor of referral to coronary angiography and revascularization. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of a large amount of resting (201)Tl reversibility is an independent predictor of CD over stress and rest perfusion abnormalities.