Development and validation of the Ontario acute myocardial infarction mortality prediction rules.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate simple statistical models that can be used with hospital discharge administrative databases to predict 30-day and one-year mortality after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in developing AMI "report cards" using population-based hospital discharge databases. However, there is a lack of simple statistical models that can be used to adjust for regional and interinstitutional differences in patient case-mix. METHODS: We used linked administrative databases on 52,616 patients having an AMI in Ontario, Canada, between 1994 and 1997 to develop logistic regression statistical models to predict 30-day and one-year mortality after an AMI. These models were subsequently validated in two external cohorts of AMI patients derived from administrative datasets from Manitoba, Canada, and California, U.S. RESULTS: The 11-variable Ontario AMI mortality prediction rules accurately predicted mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.78 for 30-day mortality and 0.79 for one-year mortality in the Ontario dataset from which they were derived. In an independent validation dataset of 4,836 AMI patients from Manitoba, the ROC areas were 0.77 and 0.78, respectively. In a second validation dataset of 112,234 AMI patients from California, the ROC areas were 0.77 and 0.78 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Ontario AMI mortality prediction rules predict quite accurately 30-day and one-year mortality after an AMI in linked hospital discharge databases of AMI patients from Ontario, Manitoba and California. These models may also be useful to outcomes and quality measurement researchers in other jurisdictions.

Synthetic nerve graft containing collagen and synthetic Schwann cells inproves functional, electrophysiological, and histological parameters of peripheral nerve regeneration.

Current methods of peripheral nerve repair are to directly suture cut nerve stumps, or to bridge large gaps with an autograft repair. Autograft-associated problems include donor site morbidity and limited supply. Many of the present limitations of nerve repair might be overcome by expanding the patients own Schwann cells in vitro, then combining the cells with other neuro-tropic and -trophic materials into an Artificial Nerve Graft (ANG) for bridging a nerve gap. In this 4.5 month experiment, a rat peroneal nerve model with a 10 mm gap was used to evaluate the effect of live Schwann cells on peripheral nerve regeneration. Nerve gaps were repaired with cellular ANGs containing live Schwann cell, dead Schwann cell, or mixed fibroblast/Schwann cell populations suspended in a collagen I matrix, and with sutured autografts or ANGs containing just collagen or medium. Regenerated nerves were evaluated by walking track analysis, qualitative and quantitative histology, and electrophysiology. Overall, the autograft was the best repair method, while the ANG containing live Schwann cells was statistically superior to other ANG repair methods. This study demonstrates that an ANG containing cultured syngeneic Schwann cells improves functional, histological, and electrophysiological parameters of peripheral nerve regeneration.