ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The PROFUND index (PI) is a prognostic scale for polypathological patients at 12 months. The objective of the study was to validate the PI as a predictor of 1-year mortality in a current cohort of polypathological patients and analyse its prognostic usefulness in the short-term (1 month and 3 months) after discharge from Internal Medicine. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective observational study and all polypathological patients discharged from an Internal Medicine Department between 01 March 2016 and 28 February 2017 were enrolled. METHODS: The variables recorded for each patient were age, sex, diseases and diagnostic categories defining patients as polypathological patients, PI at discharge, number of hospital admissions, length of stay, vital status at 1 year, and date and place of death if applicable. Follow-up lasted 1 year from the time of enrolment. RESULTS: Six hundred and ten polypathological patients were enrolled. Mortality was 41% and the patients who died were older, their length of stay was longer and their PI was higher compared with those who survived. The discrimination of the PI for predicting mortality was good, with a C-statistic of 0.718 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.76]. In addition, a subgroup of patients with early mortality after discharge was identified, with a C-statistic of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) at 30 days and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78) at 90 days. CONCLUSIONS: The PI is a valid tool for predicting early and 1-year mortality in polypathological patients after discharge from Internal Medicine.
Subject(s)
Mortality , Multimorbidity , Patient Discharge , Risk Assessment/methods , Severity of Illness Index , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Geriatrics , Hospitalization , Humans , Internal Medicine , Logistic Models , Male , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Reproducibility of Results , Spain/epidemiologyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To study the incidence and prevalence of primary systemic vasculitides (PSV) in the Costa del Sol region (southern Spain) and to compare the major epidemiological studies in PSV with the results obtained in our area. METHODS: Retrospective study including permanent residents ≥14 years (or older) diagnosed with PSV at the Hospital Costa del Sol (Marbella, Spain) between 1994 and 2010. Epidemiological data were collected and the annual incidence rate during the study period and the prevalence in 2010 were calculated per million population, except for GCA, which was estimated per 100,000 population >50 years. RESULTS: Seventy-four adult patients were diagnosed with PSV, representing an annual incidence of 15.8 (95%CI 12.2-19.4) patients/million population. These diagnoses included 29 (39.1%) giant cell arteritis (GCA), 5 (6.7%) Takayasu's arteritis (TKA), 3 (4%) poly-arteritis nodosa (PAN), 29 (39.1%) antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) [10 (13.5%) granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) (Wegener), 16 (21.6%) microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and 3 (4%) eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA) (Churg-Strauss)], 7 (9.4%) IgA vasculitis (Henoch-Schönlein) (IgAV) and one (1.3%) cryobulinaemic vasculitis (CV). The annual incidence and 2010 prevalence for each of the PSV, respectively, were: GCA: 2.2/12.2; TKA: 1.1/10.5; PAN: 0.6/2.6; AAV: 6.2/44.8 (GPA: 2.1/15.8; MPA: 3.4/23.8; EGPA: 0.6/5.3); IgAV: 1.5/7.9; and CV: 0.2/0. CONCLUSIONS: The first epidemiological study of PSV in southern Spain corroborates their infrequency, with GCA and AAV as the PSV most often diagnosed. In southern Spain, the incidence and prevalence of PSV are lower than in northern Spain and in countries in the Northern Hemisphere.
