Investigating the association between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya.

Findings from previous studies linking the HIV/AIDS epidemic and fertility of populations have remained inconclusive. In sub-Saharan Africa, demographic patterns point to the epidemic resulting in fertility reduction. However, evidence from the 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) has revealed interesting patterns, with regions most adversely affected with HIV/AIDS showing the clearest reversal trend in fertility decline. While there is suggestive evidence that fertility behaviour in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa has changed in relation to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, more rigorous empirical analysis is necessary to better understand this relationship. In this paper, we examine individual and contextual community HIV/AIDS factors associated with fertility patterns in Kenya, paying particular attention to possible mechanisms of the association. Multilevel models are applied to the 2003 KDHS, introducing various proximate fertility determinants in successive stages, to explore possible mechanisms through which HIV/AIDS may be associated with fertility. The results corroborate findings from earlier studies of the fertility inhibiting effect of HIV among infected women. HIV-infected women have 40 percent lower odds of having had a recent birth than their uninfected counterparts of similar background characteristics. Further analysis suggests an association between HIV/AIDS and fertility that exists through proximate fertility determinants relating to sexual exposure, breastfeeding duration, and foetal loss. While HIV/AIDS may have contributed to reduced fertility, mainly through reduced sexual exposure, there is evidence that it has contributed to increased fertility, through reduced breastfeeding and increased desire for more children resulting from increased infant/child mortality (i.e. a replacement phenomenon). In communities at advanced stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, it is possible that infant/child mortality has reached appreciably high levels where the impact of replacement and reduced breastfeeding duration is substantial enough to result in a reversal of fertility decline. This provides a plausible explanation for the patterns observed in regions with particularly high HIV prevalence in Kenya.

Determinants of transitions to first sexual intercourse, marriage and pregnancy among female adolescents: evidence from South Nyanza, Kenya.

The timing of transitions to sexual activity, marriage and childbearing in sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing profound changes. This study investigates the determinants of adolescent transitions in South Nyanza, a socioeconomically deprived setting in Kenya where adolescent reproductive health is a particular concern. The analysis is based on Cox regression of timing of first sexual intercourse, first marriage and first pregnancy, using data from a survey of 1247 females aged 12-19 years. The results show that higher household socioeconomic status and educational attainment are associated with delayed onset of all three transition events. Furthermore, mother's higher educational attainment is protective for initiation of sexual intercourse while rural residence is protective for pregnancy experience. Other protective factors include communication with parents or with fellow girlfriends. However, discussing sexual matters with boyfriends, high internal locus of control, and gender bias are associated with early onset of the three transition events.

A comparative analysis of the use of maternal health services between teenagers and older mothers in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).

This paper uses Demographic and Health Surveys data from 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine the use of maternal health services by teenagers. A comparison of maternal health care between teenagers and older women, based on bivariate analysis shows little variation in maternal health care by age. However, after controlling for the effect of background factors such as parity, premarital births, educational attainment and urban/rural residence in a multivariate analysis, there is evidence that teenagers have poorer maternal health care than older women with similar background characteristics. The results from multilevel logistic models applied to pooled data across countries show that teenagers are generally more likely to receive inadequate antenatal care and have non-professional deliveries. An examination of country-level variations shows significant differences in the levels of maternal health care across countries. However, there is no evidence of significant variations across countries in the observed patterns of maternal health care by maternal age. This suggests that the observed patterns by maternal age are generalizable across the sub-Saharan Africa region.