ABSTRACT
A stochastic, individual animal systems simulation model describing U.S. beef cow-calf production was developed and parameterized to match typical U.S. Angus genetics under cow-calf production conditions in the Kansas Flint Hills. Model simulation results were compared to available actual, multivariate U.S. cow-calf production data reported according to beef cow-calf standardized performance analysis (SPA) methodology through North Dakota State University's CHAPS program to assess model validity. Individual animal nutrition, reproduction, growth, and health characteristics, as well as production state are determined on a daily time step. Any number of days can be simulated. These capabilities allow for decision analysis and assessment of long-run outcomes of various genetic, management, and economic scenarios regarding multiple metrics simultaneously. Parameterizing the model to match Kansas Flint Hills production conditions for the years 1995 through 2018, 32 different genetic combinations for mature cow weight and peak lactation potential were simulated with 100 iterations each. Sire mature cow weight genetics ranged from 454 to 771 kg in 45 to 46 kg increments. Sire peak lactation genetics were considered at 6.8, 9, 11.3, and 13.6 kg/d for all eight mature cow weights. Utilizing model results for the years 2000 to 2018, raw model results were assessed against actual historical cow-calf production data. Exploratory factor analysis was applied to interpret the underlying factor scores of model output relative to actual cow-calf production data. Comparing modeled herd output with CHAPS herd data, median average calf weaning age, average cow age, percent pregnant per cow exposed, and percent calf mortality per calf born of model output was 3.4 d greater, 0.2 yr greater, 1 percentage point less, and 1.7 percentage points greater, respectively. Subtracting the median CHAPS pre-weaning average daily gain from the median modeled pre-weaning average daily gain for each of the eight respective mature cow weight genetics categories, and then calculating the median of the eight values, the median difference was -0.21 kg/d. Performing the same calculation for birth weight and adjusted 205 d weaning weight, the modeled data was 4.9 and 48.6 kg lighter than the CHAPS data, respectively. Management and genetic details underlying the CHAPS data were unknown.
ABSTRACT
The objective of the project was to create an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs as an aid in decision-making. Distributions defining the biological uncertainty for many reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in each iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variable values, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value, annuity equivalent net present value, and return on investment associated with the modeled embryo production scenario. Two options for embryo production, multiple ovulation embryo transfer (MOET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) from aspirated oocytes, are modeled. Within both MOET and IVP, the use of unsorted or sex-sorted semen is considered, as well as the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up in IVP procedures. Pretransfer embryo selection through embryo biopsy can also be accounted for when considering in vivo derived embryos. Ample opportunity exists for the commercial application of in-depth, alternative ET scenario assessment afforded through stochastic simulation methodology that the ET industry has not yet fully exploited.
