Time series analysis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA model.

BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran. METHODS: In this study, 725 patients with leishmaniasis were selected in the Health Centers of Shahroud during 2009-2020. Demographic characteristics including; history of traveling, history of leishmaniasis, co-morbidity of other family members, history of treatment, underlying disease, and diagnostic measures were collected using the patients' information listed in the Health Ministry portal. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for CL incidence from 2009 to 2020. All statistical analyses were done by using Minitab software version 14. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 28.2 ± 21.3 years. The highest and lowest annual incidence of leishmaniasis were in 2018 and 2017, respectively. The average ten-year incidence was 132 per 100,000 population. The highest and lowest incidence of the disease were 592 and 195 for 100,000 population in the years 2011 and 2017, respectively. The best model was SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,1,2)4 (AIC: 324.3, BIC: 317.7 and RMSE: 0.167). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that time series models would be useful tools for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence trends; therefore, the SARIMA model could be used in planning public health programs. It will predict the course of the disease in the coming years and run the solutions to reduce the cases of the disease.

The effect of bio/organic fertilizers on the phytotoxicity of sulfadiazine to Echium amoenum in a calcareous soil.

The fate of antibiotics and their effects on plant growth may be changed by the application of fertilizers. The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of sulfadiazine (SDZ), rice husk compost (RHC), rice husk biochar (RHB), and mycorrhiza (MR) on the growth attributes of Iranian Echium amoenum Fisch & C.A. Mey. A greenhouse experiment as a completely randomized design with six treatments of bio/organic-fertilizers (no bio-fertilizer (NF), RHB, RHC, MR, RHB+MR, and RHC+MR) and three levels of SDZ application (0, 100, and 200 mg kg-1) was performed for 7months with three replicates. Shoot and root SDZ concentrations were determined using high-pressure liquid chromatography-diode array detection (HPLC-DAD) instrumentation. The results revealed that the application of RHC, RHB, and MR had a significant impact on the reduction of the toxicity effects of SDZ on plant properties. The lowest values of growth parameters belonged to the 200 mg kg-1 of SDZ with no bio-fertilizers, while the highest growth parameters were observed in the treatments of RHB+MR, and RHC+MR with no SDZ application. Also, chlorophyll pigments content was affected by used treatments and the lowest rates of chlorophyll a (4.24), chlorophyll b (2.99), and carotenoids (2.88) were related to the 200 mg kg-1 of SDZ with no biofertilizers application. The co-application of bio-fertilizers and SDZ (at both levels of 100 and 200 mg kg-1) decreased SDZ uptake by both shoot and root in comparison with the control. The same results were obtained with macro (NPK) and micro (Fe, Zn, Cu, and Mn) nutrients uptake by the shoot in which the lowest values of nutrients uptake were observed in treatment of 200 mg kg-1 of SDZ with no bio-fertilizers. Furthermore, in the case of the effect of the used treatments on root colonization, the results showed that the lowest value (7.26%) belonged to the 200 mg kg-1 application of SDZ with no bio-fertilizers. Generally, this study demonstrated that bio-fertilizers could be considered as an effective strategy in controlling the negative effects of antibiotics on the growth properties and nutrients status of the plants grown in such contaminated soils.

Vibrational assignment of aluminum(III) tris-acetylacetone.

The geometry, frequency and intensity of the vibrational bands of aluminum(III) Tris-acetylacetone Al(AA)3 and its 1,3,5-(13)C derivative were obtained by the Hartree-Fock (HF) and Density Functional Theory (DFT) with the B3LYP, B1LYP, and G96LYP functionals and using the 6-31G* basis set. The calculated frequencies are compared with the solid IR and Raman spectra. All of the measured IR and Raman bands were interpreted in terms of the calculated vibrational modes. Most computed bands are predicted to be at higher wavenumbers than the experimental bands. The calculated bond lengths and bond angles are in good agreement with the experimental results. Analysis of the vibrational spectra indicates a strong coupling between the chelated ring modes. Four bands in the 500-390 cm(-1) frequency range are assigned to the vibrations of metal-ligand bonds.