How long does it take patients to find a new primary care physician when theirs retires: a population-based, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The retirement of a family physician can represent a challenge in accessibility and continuity of care for patients. In this population-based, longitudinal cohort study, we assess whether and how long it takes for patients to find a new majority source of primary care (MSOC) when theirs retires, and we investigate the effect of demographic and clinical characteristics on this process. METHODS: We used provincial health insurance records to identify the complete cohort of patients whose majority source of care left clinical practice in either 2007/2008 or 2008/2009 and then calculated the number of days between their last visit with their original MSOC and their first visit with their new one. We compared the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics of patients who did and did not find a new MSOC in the three years following their original physician's retirement using Chi-square and Fisher's exact test. We also used Cox proportional hazards models to determine the adjusted association between patient age, sex, socioeconomic status, location and morbidity level (measured using Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnostic Groupings), and time to finding a new primary care physician. We produce survival curves stratified by patient age, sex, income and morbidity. RESULTS: Fifty-four percent of patients found a new MSOC within the first 12 months following their physician's retirement. Six percent of patients still had not found a new physician after 36 months. Patients who were older and had higher levels of morbidity were more likely to find a new MSOC and found one faster than younger, healthier patients. Patients located in more urban regional health authorities also took longer to find a new MSOC compared to those in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physician retirements represent a potential threat to accessibility; patients followed in this study took more than a year on average to find a new MSOC after their physician retired. Providing programmatic support to retiring physicians and their patients, as well as addressing shortages of longitudinal primary care more broadly could help to ensure smoother retirement transitions.

Patient and primary care physician characteristics associated with billing incentives for chronic diseases in British Columbia: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Incentive payments for chronic diseases in British Columbia were intended to support primary care physicians in providing more comprehensive care, but research shows that not all physicians bill incentives and not all eligible patients have them billed on their behalf. We investigated patient and physician characteristics associated with billing incentives for chronic diseases in BC. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using linked administrative health data to examine community-based primary care physicians and patients with eligible chronic conditions in BC during 2010-2013. Descriptive analyses of patients and physicians compared 3 groups: no incentives in any of the 4 years, incentives in all 4 years, and incentives in any of the study years. We used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the patient- and physician-level characteristics associated with billing incentives. RESULTS: Of 428 770 eligible patients, 142 475 (33.2%) had an incentive billed on their behalf in all 4 years, and 152 686 (35.6%) never did. Of 3936 physicians, 2625 (66.7%) billed at least 1 incentive in each of the 4 years, and 740 (18.8%) billed no incentives during the study period. The strongest predictors of having an incentive billed were the number of physician contacts a patient had (odds ratio [OR] for > 48 contacts 134.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 112.27-161.78) and whether a physician had a large number of patients in his or her practice for whom incentives were billed (OR 42.38 [95% CI 34.55-52.00] for quartile 4 v. quartile 1). INTERPRETATION: The findings suggest that primary care physicians bill incentives for patients based on whom they see most often rather than using a population health management approach to their practice.

Predicting the Cost of Health Care Services: A Comparison of Case-mix Systems and Comorbidity Indices That Use Administrative Data.

BACKGROUND: Case-mix systems and comorbidity indices aggregate clinical information about patients over time and are used to characterize need for health care services. These tools were validated for their original purpose, but those purposes are varied, and they have not been compared directly in the context of predicting costs of health care services. OBJECTIVE: To compare predictions of next-year health care service costs across 4 tools, including: the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG), the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Index, and the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) population grouper. METHODS: British Columbia administrative data from fiscal years 2012-2013 were used to generate case-mix variables and the comorbidity indices. Outcome variables include next-year (2013-2014) total, physician, acute care, and pharmaceutical costs, Outcomes were modeled using 2-part models. Performance was compared using adjusted R, root mean squared error, and mean absolute error using the predicted and the actual next-year cost. RESULTS: Models including the CIHI grouper (239 conditions) and ACG system had similar performance in most cost categories and slightly better fit than Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). Adding a dummy variable for nonusers in the models for CCI and ECI increased R values slightly. CONCLUSIONS: All these systems have empirical support for use in predicting health care costs, despite in some cases being developed for other purposes. No system is particularly effective at predicting next-year acute care cost, likely because acute events are often by definition unexpected. The freely available ECI and CCI comorbidity indices implemented using the highest-performing methods developed here may be a good choice in many circumstances.

Practice patterns among early-career primary care (ECPC) physicians and workforce planning implications: protocol for a mixed methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Canadians report persistent problems accessing primary care despite an increasing per-capita supply of primary care physicians (PCPs). There is speculation that PCPs, especially those early in their careers, may now be working less and/or choosing to practice in focused clinical areas rather than comprehensive family medicine, but little evidence to support or refute this. The goal of this study is to inform primary care planning by: (1) identifying values and preferences shaping the practice intentions and choices of family medicine residents and early career PCPs, (2) comparing practice patterns of early-career and established PCPs to determine if changes over time reflect cohort effects (attributes unique to the most recent cohort of PCPs) or period effects (changes over time across all PCPs) and (3) integrating findings to understand the dynamics among practice intentions, practice choices and practice patterns and to identify policy implications. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We plan a mixed-methods study in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia. We will conduct semi-structured in-depth interviews with family medicine residents and early-career PCPs and analyse survey data collected by the College of Family Physicians of Canada. We will also analyse linked administrative health data within each province. Mixed methods integration both within the study and as an end-of-study step will inform how practice intentions, choices and patterns are interrelated and inform policy recommendations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Simon Fraser University Research Ethics Board with harmonised approval from partner institutions. This study will produce a framework to understand practice choices, new measures for comparing practice patterns across jurisdictions and information necessary for planners to ensure adequate provider supply and patient access to primary care.

The relationship between gender, parenthood and practice intentions among family medicine residents: cross-sectional analysis of national Canadian survey data.

BACKGROUND: Family medicine (FM) residents choose among a range of options as they enter practice, including practice model, clinical domains, settings, and populations. The choices they make have implications for primary care workforce planning and may differ between FM residents who are parents and those who are not, as well as between male and female FM residents. We investigate whether parenthood shapes intentions among FM residents entering practice and whether the effect of parenthood differs between male and female FM residents. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of national survey data collected from FM residents in Canadian residency programs by the College of Family Physicians of Canada between 2014 and 2017. The survey captures information on intentions for comprehensive or focused practice, practice model, clinical domains, practice setting, and populations. We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression to investigate the relationships between parenthood, gender, and practice intentions, adjusting for other physician personal characteristics. RESULTS: Almost a quarter of FM residents were parents or became parents during residency. Intentions for the provision comprehensive care were higher among parents, and intentions for clinically focused practice were lower. Differences in intentions for practice models, domains, and settings/population were primarily by gender, though in several cases the effects of parenthood differed between female and male FM residents. Even during residency, the effects of parenthood differ between male and female residents: while three quarters of male parents finish residency in two years, fewer than half of female parents do. CONCLUSIONS: Both parenthood and gender independently shape practice intentions, but the effect of parenthood differs for male and female FM residents. Supporting FM residents who are parents may positively impact the quality and availability of primary care services, especially since parents are more likely to report intentions to provide  comprehensive care soon after entering practice.

Regional differences in where and how family medicine residents intend to practise: a cross-sectional survey analysis.

BACKGROUND: Family medicine residents choose among a range of practice options as they enter the physician workforce. We describe the demographic and personal characteristics of Canadian family medicine residents and examine differences in the intentions of residents from Ontario, Quebec, Western Canada and Atlantic Canada at the completion of their training, in terms of practice comprehensiveness, organizational model, clinical domains, practice settings and populations served. METHODS: We analyzed national survey data collected by the College of Family Physicians of Canada and 16 university-based family medicine residency programs. We tabulated bivariable descriptive results and used logistic regression to estimate odds of practice intentions across regions, adjusting for family medicine resident characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1680 respondents (61.5% of 2731 family medicine residents invited to participate), 66.3% (n = 1095) reported it was somewhat or highly likely they would commit to providing comprehensive care to the same group of patients within their first 3 years of practice. This percentage varied from 40.3% in Atlantic Canada to 85.1% in Ontario. In addition, 31.5% (n = 522) reported it was somewhat or highly likely they would focus only on specific clinical areas. Most respondents reported it was somewhat or highly likely that they would practise in a group physician practice (93.8%) or interprofessional team-based practice (88.1%), and only 7.7% expected to have a solo practice. INTERPRETATION: Intentions for comprehensive and focused practice varied, but over 80% of family medicine residents indicated they intended to practise in a team-based model in all regions. Policy-makers and workforce planners should consider the impact of family medicine residents' intentions on policy objectives.

The impact of the 2008/2009 financial crisis on specialist physician activity in Canada.

Fee-for-service physicians are responsible for planning for their retirements, and there is no mandated retirement age. Changes in financial markets may influence how long they remain in practice and how much they choose to work. The 2008 crisis provides a natural experiment to analyze elasticity in physician service supply in response to dramatic financial market changes. We examined quarterly fee-for-service data for specialist physicians over the period from 1999/2000 to 2013/2014 in Canada. We used segmented regression to estimate changes in the number of physicians receiving payments, per-physician service counts, and per-physician payments following the 2008 financial crisis and explored whether patterns differed by physician age. The number of specialist physicians increased more rapidly in the period since 2008 than in earlier years, but increases were largest within the youngest age group, and we observed no evidence of delayed retirement among older physicians. Where changes in service volume and payments were observed, they occurred across all ages and not immediately following the 2008 financial crisis. We conclude that any response to the financial crisis was small compared with demographic shifts in the physician population and changes in payments per service over the same time period.

Will the Real Physician Retirees Please Stand Up?

Policy makers and health workforce planners rely on counts of practice licences as a measure of the size of the active physician workforce. We use a population-based approach to correlate estimates of retirement from clinical care based on these data with those produced using physician payment data. We find that licensure data generates per-capita estimates of physician supply in British Columbia that are substantially higher than activity-based estimates. Licensure data are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of the timing and extent of physician retirement and therefore should not be used as the primary basis for estimating current or future physician supply.

Patterns of physician retirement and pre-retirement activity: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Knowing when physicians retire and how they practise in the pre-retirement years is important information for health human resource planning. We identified patterns of retirement for physicians in British Columbia and the determinants of when and how physicians retire. METHODS: For this population-based retrospective cohort study, we used administrative data to examine activity levels and to identify retirements among BC's practising physicians. We included all physicians who were at least 50 years of age as of March 2006 and who had received payments for clinical services in at least 1 year between 2005/06 and 2011/12. We defined retirement as a permanent drop in monthly payments to less than $1667/month ($20 000/yr). We examined the patterns and timing of retirement by age, sex, specialty and location using linear and logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 4572 physicians who met the inclusion criteria, 1717 (37.6%) retired during the study period. The average age at retirement was 65.1 (standard deviation 7.8) years. Controlling for other demographic and practice characteristics, we found that women and physicians working in rural areas retired earlier, by 4.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] -4.9 to -3.2) years and 2.3 (95% CI -3.4 to -1.1) years, respectively. We found no difference in retirement age by specialty. We identified 4 patterns of pre-retirement activity: slow decline, rapid decline, maintenance and increasing activity. About 40% of physicians (440/1107) reduced their activity levels by at least 10% in the 3 years preceding retirement. INTERPRETATION: During the study period, physicians in BC - particularly women and those in rural areas - retired earlier than indicated by licensure and survey data. Many physicians reduced their practice activity in the pre-retirement years. These trends indicate that forecasts relying on licensure "head counts" are likely overestimating current and future physician supply.

What Is Bending the Cost Curve? An Exploration of Possible Drivers and Unintended Consequences.

Health expenditures in most OECD countries have increased at a slower rate since 2008/2009. Potential drivers of this bending of the cost curve include: (1) changes in pharmaceuticals and technology innovations; (2) healthcare reforms, and specifically those focusing on care for complex and high-user patients and (3) government expenditure controls resulting from general economic conditions. We use publicly available National Health Expenditure data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information to assess the merits of each of these drivers, with a focus on British Columbia. We find some evidence for the effects of changes in pharmaceuticals and technology, but the dominant effect is government spending controls, which are greatest for non-Medicare-covered services. These changes suggest potential unintended consequences on access and equity that should be understood before declaring victory for healthcare expenditure control.

Virtual Visits and Patient-Centered Care: Results of a Patient Survey and Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Virtual visits are clinical interactions in health care that do not involve the patient and provider being in the same room at the same time. The use of virtual visits is growing rapidly in health care. Some health systems are integrating virtual visits into primary care as a complement to existing modes of care, in part reflecting a growing focus on patient-centered care. There is, however, limited empirical evidence about how patients view this new form of care and how it affects overall health system use. OBJECTIVE: Descriptive objectives were to assess users and providers of virtual visits, including the reasons patients give for use. The analytic objective was to assess empirically the influence of virtual visits on overall primary care use and costs, including whether virtual care is with a known or a new primary care physician. METHODS: The study took place in British Columbia, Canada, where virtual visits have been publicly funded since October 2012. A survey of patients who used virtual visits and an observational study of users and nonusers of virtual visits were conducted. Comparison groups included two groups: (1) all other BC residents, and (2) a group matched (3:1) to the cohort. The first virtual visit was used as the intervention and the main outcome measures were total primary care visits and costs. RESULTS: During 2013-2014, there were 7286 virtual visit encounters, involving 5441 patients and 144 physicians. Younger patients and physicians were more likely to use and provide virtual visits (P<.001), with no differences by sex. Older and sicker patients were more likely to see a known provider, whereas the lowest socioeconomic groups were the least likely (P<.001). The survey of 399 virtual visit patients indicated that virtual visits were liked by patients, with 372 (93.2%) of respondents saying their virtual visit was of high quality and 364 (91.2%) reporting their virtual visit was "very" or "somewhat" helpful to resolve their health issue. Segmented regression analysis and the corresponding regression parameter estimates suggested virtual visits appear to have the potential to decrease primary care costs by approximately Can $4 per quarter (Can -$3.79, P=.12), but that benefit is most associated with seeing a known provider (Can -$8.68, P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Virtual visits may be one means of making the health system more patient-centered, but careful attention needs to be paid to how these services are integrated into existing health care delivery systems.