A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England.

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.

Gas Migration Episodes Observed During Peridotite Alteration in the Samail Ophiolite, Oman.

Serpentinization and carbonation of mantle rocks (peridotite alteration) are fundamentally important processes for a spectrum of geoscience topics, including arc volcanism, earthquake processes, chemosynthetic biological communities, and carbon sequestration. Data from a hydrophone array deployed in the Multi-Borehole Observatory (MBO) of the Oman Drilling Project demonstrates that free gas generated by peridotite alteration and/or microbial activity migrates through the formation in discrete bursts of activity. We detected several, minutes-long, swarms of gas discharge into Hole BA1B of the MBO over the course of a 9 month observation interval. The episodic nature of the migration events indicates that free gas accumulates in the permeable flow network, is pressurized, and discharges rapidly into the borehole when a critical pressure, likely associated with a capillary barrier at a flow constriction, is reached. Our observations reveal a dynamic mode of fluid migration during serpentinization, and highlight the important role that free gas can play in modulating pore pressure, fluid flow, and alteration kinetics during peridotite weathering.

Predicting time to graduation at a large enrollment American university.

The time it takes a student to graduate with a university degree is mitigated by a variety of factors such as their background, the academic performance at university, and their integration into the social communities of the university they attend. Different universities have different populations, student services, instruction styles, and degree programs, however, they all collect institutional data. This study presents data for 160,933 students attending a large American research university. The data includes performance, enrollment, demographics, and preparation features. Discrete time hazard models for the time-to-graduation are presented in the context of Tinto's Theory of Drop Out. Additionally, a novel machine learning method: gradient boosted trees, is applied and compared to the typical maximum likelihood method. We demonstrate that enrollment factors (such as changing a major) lead to greater increases in model predictive performance of when a student graduates than performance factors (such as grades) or preparation (such as high school GPA).

Exploring physics students' engagement with online instructional videos in an introductory mechanics course.

The advent of new educational technologies has stimulated interest in using online videos to deliver content in university courses. We examined student engagement with 78 online videos that we created and were incorporated into a one-semester flipped introductory mechanics course at the Georgia Institute of Technology. We found that students were more engaged with videos that supported laboratory activities than with videos that presented lecture content. In particular, the percentage of students accessing laboratory videos was consistently greater than 80% throughout the semester. On the other hand, the percentage of students accessing lecture videos dropped to less than 40% by the end of the term. Moreover, the fraction of students accessing the entirety of a video decreases when videos become longer in length, and this trend is more prominent for the lecture videos than the laboratory videos. The results suggest that students may access videos based on perceived value: students appear to consider the laboratory videos as essential for successfully completing the laboratories while they appear to consider the lecture videos as something more akin to supplemental material. In this study, we also found that there was little correlation between student engagement with the videos and their incoming background. There was also little correlation found between student engagement with the videos and their performance in the course. An examination of the in-video content suggests that students engaged more with concrete information that is explicitly required for assignment completion (e.g., actions required to complete laboratory work, or formulas or mathematical expressions needed to solve particular problems) and less with content that is considered more conceptual in nature. It was also found that students' in-video accesses usually increased toward the embedded interaction points. However, students did not necessarily access the follow-up discussion of these interaction points. The results of the study suggest ways in which instructors may revise courses to better support student learning. For example, external intervention that helps students see the value of accessing videos may be required in order for this resource to be put to more effective use. In addition, students may benefit more from a clicker question that reiterates important concepts within the question itself, rather than a clicker question that leaves some important concepts to be addressed only in the discussion afterwards.