Prediction of Survival Among Patients Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Response-Based Approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The heterogeneity of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the widespread use of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) outside recommended guidelines have encouraged the development of scoring systems that predict patient survival. The aim of this study was to build and validate statistical models that offer individualized patient survival prediction using response to TACE as a variable. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Clinically relevant baseline parameters were collected for 4,621 patients with HCC treated with TACE at 19 centers in 11 countries. In some of the centers, radiological responses (as assessed by modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [mRECIST]) were also accrued. The data set was divided into a training set, an internal validation set, and two external validation sets. A pre-TACE model ("Pre-TACE-Predict") and a post-TACE model ("Post-TACE-Predict") that included response were built. The performance of the models in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared with existing ones. The median OS was 19.9 months. The factors influencing survival were tumor number and size, alpha-fetoprotein, albumin, bilirubin, vascular invasion, cause, and response as assessed by mRECIST. The proposed models showed superior predictive accuracy compared with existing models (the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score and its various modifications) and allowed for patient stratification into four distinct risk categories whose median OS ranged from 7 months to more than 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: A TACE-specific and extensively validated model based on routinely available clinical features and response after first TACE permitted patient-level prognostication.

Hip fracture risk in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis: A population-based study using English and Danish data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis, the prevalence of which is increasing, is a risk factor for osteoporosis and fractures. However, little is known of the actual risk of hip fractures in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Using linked primary and secondary care data from the English and Danish nationwide registries, we quantified the hip fracture risk in two national cohorts of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. METHODS: We followed 3,706 English and 17,779 Danish patients with a diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis, and we identified matched controls from the general populations. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) of hip fracture for patients vs. controls, adjusted for age, sex and comorbidity. RESULTS: The five-year hip fracture risk was raised both in England (2.9% vs. 0.8% for controls) and Denmark (4.6% vs. 0.9% for controls). With confounder adjustment, patients with cirrhosis had fivefold (adjusted HR 5.5; 95% CI 4.3-6.9), and 8.5-fold (adjusted HR 8.5; 95% CI 7.8-9.3) increased rates of hip fracture, in England and Denmark, respectively. This association between alcoholic cirrhosis and risk of hip fracture showed significant interaction with age (p <0.001), being stronger in younger age groups (under 45 years, HR 17.9 and 16.6 for English and Danish patients, respectively) than in patients over 75 years (HR 2.1 and 2.9, respectively). In patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, 30-day mortality following a hip fracture was 11.1% in England and 10.0% in Denmark, giving age-adjusted post-fracture mortality rate ratios of 2.8(95% CI 1.9-3.9) and 2.0(95% CI 1.5-2.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with alcoholic cirrhosis have a markedly increased risk of hip fracture and post-hip fracture mortality compared with the general population. These findings support the need for more effort towards fracture prevention in this population, to benefit individuals and reduce the societal burden. LAY SUMMARY: Alcoholic cirrhosis creates a large public health burden and is a risk factor for bone fractures. Based on data from England and Denmark, we found that hip fractures occur more than five times more frequently in people with alcoholic cirrhosis than in people without the disease. Additionally, the aftermath of the hip fracture is severe, such that up to 11% of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis die within 30 days after their hip fracture. These results suggest that efforts directed towards fracture prevention in people with alcoholic cirrhosis could be beneficial.

The communication of a secondary care diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis to primary care practitioners: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune Hepatitis is a chronic liver disease which affects young people and can result in liver failure leading to death or transplantation yet there is a lack of information on the incidence and prevalence of this disease and its natural history in the UK. A means of obtaining this information is via the use of clinical databases formed of electronic primary care records. How reliably the diagnosis is coded in such records is however unknown. The aim of this study therefore was to assess the proportion of consultant hepatologist diagnoses of Autoimmune Hepatitis which were accurately recorded in General Practice computerised records. METHODS: Our study population were patients with Autoimmune Hepatitis diagnosed by consultant hepatologists in the Queens Medical Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals (UK) between 2004 and 2009. We wrote to the general practitioners of these patients to obtain the percentage of patients who had a valid READ code specific for Autoimmune Hepatitis. RESULTS: We examined the electronic records of 51 patients who had biopsy evidence and a possible diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis. Forty two of these patients had a confirmed clinical diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis by a consultant hepatologist: we contacted the General Practitioners of these patients obtaining a response rate of 90.5% (39/42 GPs). 37/39 of these GPs responded with coding information and 89% of these patients (33/37) used Read code J638.00 (Autoimmune Hepatitis) to record a diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of Autoimmune Hepatitis made by a Consultant Hepatologist is accurately communicated to and electronically recorded by primary care in the UK. As a large proportion of cases of Autoimmune Hepatitis are recorded in primary care, this minimises the risk of introducing selection bias and therefore selecting cases using these data will be a valid method of conducting population based studies on Autoimmune Hepatitis.