ABSTRACT
Algorithms for grading acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) are inaccurate in assessing mortality risk. We developed a method to predict mortality by using data from 386 patients with acute GVHD. From the onset of GVHD to day 100, GVHD manifestations were scored for the skin, liver, and upper and lower gastrointestinal tract, and data were recorded for immunosuppressive treatment, performance, and fever. Logistic regression models predicting nonrelapse mortality (NRM) at day 200 were developed with data from 193 randomly selected patients and then validated in the remaining 193 patients. Clinical parameters were grouped to optimize predictive accuracy measured as the area under a receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal model included the total serum bilirubin concentration, oral intake, need for treatment with prednisone, and performance score. When the overall burden of GVHD was measured by using average Acute GVHD Activity Index (aGVHDAI) scores for each patient in training and validation data sets, areas under ROC curves were 0.87 and 0.85, respectively. Contour lines were generated to reflect the predicted NRM at day 200 as a function of current aGVHDAI scores. These results demonstrate that clinical manifestations of GVHD severity can be used to accurately predict the risk of NRM in real time.
Subject(s)
Graft vs Host Disease/diagnosis , Graft vs Host Disease/mortality , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/mortality , Myeloablative Agonists/administration & dosage , Predictive Value of Tests , Severity of Illness Index , Acute Disease , Adolescent , Adult , Algorithms , Bilirubin/blood , Child , Child, Preschool , Graft vs Host Disease/pathology , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/methods , Humans , Infant , Middle Aged , Prednisone/therapeutic use , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Survival Rate , Transplantation Conditioning/adverse effects , Transplantation Conditioning/methodsABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of supplement use in persons before receiving hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and the association of select supplements with outcomes. DESIGN: This observational cohort study included a questionnaire on supplement use before HSCT. Nonrelapse mortality, recurrence/relapse, and mortality or relapse (the inverse of disease-free survival) were followed to two years. Subjects/Setting Persons receiving HSCT at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center between September 1994 and December 1997 were eligible (N=1,182). Statistical Analyses Performed Descriptive statistics and univariate and Cox regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Sixty-six percent of patients used supplements (31% vitamin C, 19% vitamin E, and 20% herbs or others preparations). Vitamin C at > or =500 mg/day was inversely associated with recurrence among persons with breast cancer (RR=0.11; 95% CI, 0.02-0.89; P=.03). However, among persons with acute leukemia, vitamin C at > or =500 mg/day was positively associated with nonrelapse mortality (RR=2.25; 95% CI, 1.33-3.83; P=.01) and mortality or relapse (RR=1.63; 95% CI, 1.09-2.44; P=.01), respectively. Vitamin E at > or =400 IU/day was positively associated with mortality or relapse (RR=1.77; 95% CI, 1.06 -2.96; P=.02). Applications/Conclusions Though this work was observational, the results suggest supplemental vitamin C before therapy may be beneficial in persons with breast cancer but both vitamin C and vitamin E may increase risk in persons with acute leukemia receiving HSCT. Practitioners should document supplement use in subjects receiving therapy for cancer.
