Impact of TP53 mutation variant allele frequency on phenotype and outcomes in myelodysplastic syndromes.

Although next-generation sequencing has allowed for the detection of somatic mutations in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), the clinical relevance of variant allele frequency (VAF) for the majority of mutations is unknown. We profiled TP53 and 20 additional genes in our training set of 219 patients with MDS or secondary acute myeloid leukemia with findings confirmed in a validation cohort. When parsed by VAF, TP53 VAF predicted for complex cytogenetics in both the training (P=0.001) and validation set (P<0.0001). MDS patients with a TP53 VAF > 40% had a median overall survival (OS) of 124 days versus an OS that was not reached in patients with VAF <20% (hazard ratio (HR), 3.52; P=0.01) with validation in an independent cohort (HR, 4.94, P=0.01). TP53 VAF further stratified distinct prognostic groups independent of clinical prognostic scoring systems (P=0.0005). In multivariate analysis, only a TP53 VAF >40% was an independent covariate (HR, 1.61; P<0.0001). In addition, SRSF2 VAF predicted for monocytosis (P=0.003), RUNX1 VAF with thrombocytopenia (P=0.01) and SF3B1 with ringed sideroblasts (P=0.001). Together, our study indicates that VAF should be incorporated in patient management and risk stratification in MDS.

An international data set for CMML validates prognostic scoring systems and demonstrates a need for novel prognostication strategies.

Since its reclassification as a distinct disease entity, clinical research efforts have attempted to establish baseline characteristics and prognostic scoring systems for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Although existing data for baseline characteristics and CMML prognostication have been robustly developed and externally validated, these results have been limited by the small size of single-institution cohorts. We developed an international CMML data set that included 1832 cases across eight centers to establish the frequency of key clinical characteristics. Of note, we found that the majority of CMML patients were classified as World Health Organization CMML-1 and that a 7.5% bone marrow blast cut-point may discriminate prognosis with higher resolution in comparison with the existing 10%. We additionally interrogated existing CMML prognostic models and found that they are all valid and have comparable performance but are vulnerable to upstaging. Using random forest survival analysis for variable discovery, we demonstrated that the prognostic power of clinical variables alone is limited. Last, we confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of ASXL1 gene mutations and identified the novel adverse prognostic impact imparted by CBL mutations. Our data suggest that combinations of clinical and molecular information may be required to improve the accuracy of current CMML prognostication.