ABSTRACT
Background/Aim: Due to epidemic levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be driving factors in liver disease burden in the coming years in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Materials and Methods: Models were used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression, primarily based on changes in adult prevalence rates of adult obesity and DM. The published estimates and expert interviews were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: In both countries, the prevalence of NAFLD increased through 2030 parallel to projected increases in the prevalence of obesity and DM. By 2030, there were an estimated 12,534,000 NAFLD cases in Saudi Arabia and 372,000 cases in UAE. Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than the NAFLD cases due to aging of the population and disease progression. Likewise, prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis and advanced liver disease are projected to at least double by 2030, while annual incident liver deaths increase in both countries to 4800 deaths in Saudi Arabia and 140 deaths in UAE. Conclusions: Continued high rates of adult obesity and DM, in combination with aging populations, suggest that advanced liver disease and mortality attributable to NAFLD/NASH will increase across both countries. Reducing the growth of the NAFLD population, along with potential therapeutic options, will be needed to reduce liver disease burden.
Subject(s)
Liver Diseases/epidemiology , Liver/pathology , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/economics , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/epidemiology , Adult , Cost of Illness , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2/epidemiology , Disease Progression , Female , Fibrosis/epidemiology , Fibrosis/mortality , Humans , Liver Diseases/mortality , Male , Metabolic Syndrome/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/mortality , Obesity/epidemiology , Prevalence , Saudi Arabia/epidemiology , United Arab Emirates/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: We report the largest European series of patients in whom both ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS) and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomies (PEG) have been inserted with the aim of determining if this combination is safe or if there is an increased risk of VPS infection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The paper and electronic records of 302 patients who had a ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt inserted in the regional Neurosciences unit at Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust between 2002 and 2007 were reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 24 patients with VP shunts had 26 PEG inserted. Thirteen PEG were inserted in 11 patients with a pre-existing VP shunt. The median age was 58 years (21-77 Yrs) with seven male and 17 female patients. In total, five patients developed a shunt infection (20.8%) compared to the overall rate of VP shunt infection for Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust of 7% (P = 0.017). The increase in number of VP shunt infections when the procedures were done more than 10 days apart (2/14) was not significant (P = 0.25). CONCLUSION: In patients who need long-term enteral feeding following a VP shunt insertion it may be prudent to delay insertion of a PEG for at least 10 days to reduce VPS infection. In stable patients who have had a VP shunt inserted on previous hospital admissions PEG insertion need not be avoided because of concern regarding cerebrospinal fluid or shunt infection.
