ABSTRACT
South Africa is among the world's top eight tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, and despite a focus on HIV-TB co-infection, most of the population living with TB are not HIV co-infected. The disease is endemic across the country, with 80-90% exposure by adulthood. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for (TB) in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa: an understudied TB endemic region with extreme TB incidence (926/100,000). We leveraged the population's high TB incidence and community transmission to design a case-control study with similar mechanisms of exposure between the groups. We recruited 1,126 participants with suspected TB from 12 community health clinics and generated a cohort of 774 individuals (cases = 374, controls = 400) after implementing our enrollment criteria. All participants were GeneXpert Ultra tested for active TB by a local clinic. We assessed important risk factors for active TB using logistic regression and random forest modeling. We find that factors commonly identified in other global populations tend to replicate in our study, e.g. male gender and residence in a town had significant effects on TB risk (OR: 3.02 [95% CI: 2.30-4.71]; OR: 3.20 [95% CI: 2.26-4.55]). We also tested for demographic factors that may uniquely reflect historical changes in health conditions in South Africa. We find that socioeconomic status (SES) significantly interacts with an individual's age (p = 0.0005) indicating that protective effect of higher SES changed across age cohorts. We further find that being born in a rural area and moving to a town strongly increases TB risk, while town birthplace and current rural residence is protective. These interaction effects reflect rapid demographic changes, specifically SES over recent generations and mobility, in South Africa. Our models show that such risk factors combined explain 19-21% of the variance (r2) in TB case/control status.
ABSTRACT
Factors such as subsistence turnover, warfare, or interaction between different groups can be major sources of cultural change in human populations. Global demographic shifts such as the transition to agriculture during the Neolithic and more recently the urbanization and globalization of the twentieth century have been major catalysts for cultural change. Here, we test whether cultural traits such as patri/matrilocality and postmarital migration persist in the face of social upheaval and gene flow during the past 150 years in postcolonial South Africa. The recent history of South Africa has seen major demographic shifts that resulted in the displacement and forced sedentism of indigenous Khoekhoe and San populations. During the expansion of the colonial frontier, the Khoe-San admixed with European colonists and enslaved individuals from West/Central Africa, Indonesia, and South Asia, introducing novel cultural norms. We conducted demographic interviews among Nama and Cederberg communities representing nearly 3,000 individuals across three generations. Despite the history of colonial expansion, and the subsequent incorporation of Khoe-San and Khoe-San-descendant communities into a colonial society with strong patrilocal norms, patrilocality is the least common postmarital residence pattern in our study populations today. Our results suggest that more recent forces of integration into the market economy are likely the primary drivers of change in the cultural traits examined in our study. Birthplace had a strong effect on an individual's odds of migration, distance moved, and postmarital residence form. These effects are at least partially explained by the population size of the birthplace. Our results suggest that market factors local to birthplaces are important drivers of residence decisions, although the frequency of matrilocal residence and a geographic and temporal cline in migration and residence patterns also indicate the persistence of some historic Khoe-San cultural traits in contemporary groups.
