A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia.

Since the initial emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, a high incidence rate has been observed in Saudi Arabia. This suggests that the country is at continuous risk. The epidemic level of MERS-CoV infection was examined in Saudi Arabia by the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model using a Bayesian approach for estimation of time dependent reproduction number (R) across a two-year interval (May, 2013-May, 2015) in five defined clusters, followed by sensitivity analysis of the most significant clusters. Significant MERS-CoV peaks were detected in the period between March and May of each year. Moreover, MERS-CoV infection was highlighted in western (40.8%) and central (31.9%) regions, followed by eastern region (20%). The temporal-based Bayesian approach indicated a sub-critical epidemic in all regions in the baseline scenario (R: 0.85-0.97). However, R potential limit was exceeded in the sensitivity analysis scenario in only central and western regions (R: 1.08-1.12) that denoted epidemic level in those regions. The impact of sporadic cases was found relatively insignificant and pinpointed to the lack of zoonotic influence on MERS-CoV transmission dynamics. The results of current study would be helpful for evaluation of future progression of MERS-CoV infections, better understanding and control interventions.

Respiratory Tract Viral Infections and Coinfections Identified by Anyplex™ II RV16 Detection Kit in Pediatric Patients at a Riyadh Tertiary Care Hospital.

Respiratory infections are caused by an array of viruses, and limited information is available about viral coexistence, comparative symptoms, and the burden of illness. This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine the etiological agents responsible for respiratory tract infections by Anyplex II RV16 detection kit (RV16, Seegene), involving 2266 pediatric patients with respiratory infections admitted to the Department of Pediatrics at King Abdul-Aziz Medical City, Ministry of National Guard, Riyadh, from July 2014 to June 2015. The most frequent respiratory infections were recorded in the 1 to 5 year age group (44.7%). Rhinovirus (32.5%), Adenovirus (16.9%), and Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) B (10.4%) were most common. In single viral infections, Rhinovirus (41.2%), Metapneumovirus (15.3%), and Bocavirus (13.7%) were most frequent. In multiple viral infections, Rhinovirus (36.7%), Adenovirus (35.2%), Bocavirus (11.2), RSV B (7.8%), and RSV A (6.7%) were most frequent. No significant difference was observed in clinical presentations; however, rhinorrhea and hypodynamia were significantly associated with viral respiratory infections. Most respiratory viral pathogens peaked during December, January, March, and April. Rhinovirus, Adenovirus, and Bocavirus circulations were detected throughout the year. Winter peaks were recorded for Rhinovirus, RSV B, Adenovirus, and RSV A, whereas the Metapneumovirus, and the Bocavirus peaked in March and April. These findings enhance understanding of viral etiology and distribution to improve respiratory infection management and treatment.