The dynamic volatility nexus of geo-political risks, stocks, bond, bitcoin, gold and oil during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war.

We investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of geopolitical risk, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and oil from January 2018 to April 2022 in this study. We look at connectivity during the Pre-COVID, COVID, and Russian-Ukraine war subsamples. During the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war periods, we find that conventional, Islamic, and sustainable stock indices are net volatility transmitters, whereas gold, US bonds, GPR, oil, and bitcoin are net volatility receivers. During the Russian-Ukraine war, the commodity index (DJCI) shifted from being a net recipient of volatility to a net transmitter of volatility. Furthermore, we discover that bilateral intercorrelations are strong within stock indices (DJWI, DJIM, and DJSI) but weak across all other financial assets. Our study has important implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market participants who want to improve their existing strategies for avoiding financial losses.

A time series forecasting analysis of overall and sector-based natural gas demand: a developing South Asian economy case.

Pakistan is developing South Asian country which is currently considering alternative energy sources including coal, solar, compressed natural gas, and wind energy to cope with the worst energy crisis in its history. Moreover, the policy promotion of compressed natural gas especially in the transport sector has raised concerns about the demand management of natural gas to avoid future shortages and ensure sustainable use of this precious non-renewable source of energy. Against this background, this study aimed to forecast natural gas demand in Pakistan for the 2016-2030 period by applying relevant univariate time series econometric methods. Apart from forecasting the overall natural gas demand, the forecasting analysis is also conducted for natural gas demand in Pakistan's total natural gas consumption and also for natural gas consumption across the household, industrial, commercial, transport, fertilizer production, power generation, and cement production sectors. Overall, the findings revealed that ARIMA is the appropriate model for forecasting gas consumption in Pakistan. Further, the growth of increase in the level of compressed natural gas consumption in the household sector is more as compared to all other sectors of the economy up to the year 2030. The key findings show that (a) natural gas consumption is likely to grow with time, (b) mixed projection trends are observed for the overall natural gas consumption and other sector-based natural gas consumption trends, and (c) the difference between natural gas consumption and production in Pakistan is likely to grow leading to 2030. As part of the policy recommendation in line with the findings, policymakers in Pakistan should increase the availability of natural gas, particularly in sectors where its consumption is likely to be declining. In addition, more proactive measures should be undertaken to explore the existing natural gas reserves in the long run while also importing natural gas from the neighboring nations in the short run. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan should seriously consider strategizing the development of the nation's compressed natural gas sector.

Pathways to securing environmentally sustainable economic growth through efficient use of energy: a bootstrapped ARDL analysis.

Oman has traditionally relied upon natural gas and oil for meeting its domestic energy demand. As a result, despite growing economically, the level of carbon dioxide emissions in Oman has persistently surged; consequently, the nation has failed to ensure environmentally sustainable economic growth. Against this background, this current study aims to explore the impacts of energy consumption, energy efficiency, and financial development on Oman's prospects of attaining environmentally sustainable growth over the 1972-2019 period. The estimation strategy is designed to take into account the structural break issues in the data. Using the carbon productivity level as an indicator of environmentally sustainable economic growth, we find long-run associations amid the study variables. Besides, higher energy consumption and greater financial development are found to impede carbon productivity while improving energy efficiency is observed to boost carbon productivity in Oman. Therefore, it is pertinent for Oman to consume low-carbon and energy-efficient fossil fuels, improve energy efficiency levels, and green its financial sector to achieve environmentally sustainable growth.

The roles of foreign direct investments, economic growth, and capital investments in decarbonizing the economy of Oman.

Oman is a Middle Eastern country that has traditionally been monotonically reliant on its indigenous fossil fuel supplies. Besides, the nation has also been a surplus producer and net exporter of oil which further highlights the prolonged fossil fuel dependency of Oman. Consequently, despite flourishing economically, environmental quality in Oman has persistently aggravated. These opposing economic and environmental performances have necessitated Oman to identify the factors which can enable Oman to decarbonize its economy for tackling the environmental concerns faced by the nation. Against this backdrop, this study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of foreign direct investments, economic growth, and capital investments on carbon dioxide emissions in Oman during 1980-2019. Using relevant econometric estimation methods for controlling structural break concerns in the data, the findings reveal evidence of asymmetric environmental impacts associated with shocks to the nation's foreign direct investment inflow, economic growth, and capital investment figures. Specifically, it is witnessed that positive shocks to the levels of foreign direct investment inflows, economic growth, and capital investments boost carbon dioxide emissions both in the short and long run. On the other hand, negative shocks to the levels of foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth are witnessed to reduce the emissions. Besides, the findings also validate the environmental Kuznets curve and pollution haven hypotheses in the context of Oman. Hence, considering these key findings, it is recommended that Oman should ideally pursues green economic growth policies by restricting inflows of unclean foreign direct investments and green its financial sector in order to collectively minimize its carbon dioxide emission figures.

Prevalence of rheumatic diseases and associated outcomes in rural and urban communities in Bangladesh: a COPCORD study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of rheumatic disorders in adults (age >/= 15 yrs) in Bangladeshi rural and urban communities. METHODS: The survey was carried out in a rural community, an urban slum, and an affluent urban community with samples of 2635, 1317, and 1259 adults, respectively. Through door-to-door surveys, trained interviewers identified subjects with musculoskeletal pain. A socio-culturally adapted and validated Bengali version of the COPCORD (Community Oriented Program for Control of Rheumatic Disorders) questionnaire was used. Trained internists and rheumatologists examined the positive respondents using an English COPCORD examination sheet to identify respondents with definite rheumatic disorders and to reach a diagnosis. RESULTS: The overall point prevalence of musculoskeleletal pain was 26.3%. The point prevalence estimates of musculoskeletal pain in rural, urban slum, and affluent urban communities were 26.2% (women 31.3%, men 21.1%), 24.9% (women 27.5%, men 22.6%), and 27.9% (women 35.5%, men 18.6%), respectively. Most commonly affected sites were low back, knees, hips, and shoulders in all 3 communities. The point prevalence of definite rheumatic disorders was 24.0%. The commonest rheumatic disorders were osteoarthritis of the knees, nonspecific low back pain, lumbar spondylosis, fibromyalgia, and soft tissue rheumatism. Their prevalence estimates were 7.5%, 6.6%, 5.0%, 4.4%, and 2.7%, respectively, in the rural, 9.2%, 9.9%, 2.0%, 3.2%, and 2.5%, respectively, in the urban slum, and 10.6%, 9.2%, 2.3%, 3.3%, and 3.3% in the urban affluent community. The point prevalence of functional disability was 25.5%, 23.3%, and 24.8%, respectively, in the rural, urban slum, and urban affluent communities. Among the positive respondents, 22%, 52%, and 22% reported loss of work for durations of 49.3 +/- 47.5, 50.90 +/- 103.3, and 29.25 +/- 56.5 days, respectively, within the previous year. CONCLUSION: Rheumatic disorders are common causes of morbidity, disability, and work loss in rural and urban communities of Bangladesh. Women are affected more frequently than men. Mechanical disorders are more common than inflammatory arthropathies.