Human antibodies in Mexico and Brazil neutralizing tick-borne flaviviruses.

Flaviviruses such as dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and yellow fever virus (YFV) are spread by mosquitoes and cause human disease and mortality in tropical areas. In contrast, Powassan virus (POWV), which causes severe neurologic illness, is a flavivirus transmitted by ticks in temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere. We find serologic neutralizing activity against POWV in individuals living in Mexico and Brazil. Monoclonal antibodies P002 and P003, which were derived from a resident of Mexico (where POWV is not reported), neutralize POWV lineage I by recognizing an epitope on the virus envelope domain III (EDIII) that is shared with a broad range of tick- and mosquito-borne flaviviruses. Our findings raise the possibility that POWV, or a flavivirus closely related to it, infects humans in the tropics.

Effectiveness of the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccines against severe COVID-19 among adults 40 years or older in Brazil: a population-based cohort study.

Background: The emergence of COVID-19 variants with immune scape and the waning of primary vaccine schemes effectiveness have prompted many countries to indicate first and second booster COVID-19 vaccine doses to prevent severe COVID-19. However, current available evidence on second booster dose effectiveness are mostly limited to high-income countries, older adults, and mRNA-based vaccination schemes scenarios. We aimed to investigate the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of the fourth dose compared to three doses for severe COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil; and compare the rVE of a fourth dose with an mRNA vaccine compared to adenovirus-based product in the same settings. Methods: We performed a target emulated trial using a population-based cohort of individuals aged 40 years or older who have received a homologous primary scheme of CoronaVac, ChAdOx1, or BNT162b2, and any third dose product and were eligible for the fourth dose in Brazil. The primary outcome was COVID-19 associated hospitalization or death. We built Cohort A matching individuals vaccinated with a fourth dose to individuals who received three doses to estimate the rVE of the fourth dose. We built Cohort B, a subset of Cohort A, matching mRNA-based (mRNA) to adenovirus-based fourth dose vaccinated individuals to compare their relative hazards for severe COVID-19. Findings: 46,693,484 individuals were included in Cohort A and 6,763,016 in Cohort B. 45% of them were aged between 40 and 60 years old, and 48% between 60 and 79 years old. In Cohort A, the most common previous series was a ChAdOx1 two-dose followed by BNT162b2 (44%), and a CoronaVac two-dose followed by a BNT162b2 (36%). Among those fourth dose vaccinated, 36.9% received ChAdOx1, 32.7% Ad26.COV2.S, 25.8% BNT162b2, and 4.7% CoronaVac. In Cohort B, among those who received an adenovirus fourth dose, 53.7% received ChAdOx1 and 46.3% received Ad26.COV2.S. The estimated rVE for the primary outcome of four doses compared to three doses was 44.1% (95% CI 42.3-46.0), with some waning during follow-up (rVE 7-60 days 46.8% [95% CI 44.4-49.1], rVE after 120 days 33.8% [95% CI 18.0-46.6]). Among fourth dose vaccinated individuals, mRNA-based vaccinated individuals had lower hazards for hospitalization or death compared to adenovirus-vaccinated individuals (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87). After 120 days, no difference in hazards between groups was observed (HR 1.35, 95% CI 0.93-1.97). Similar findings were observed for hospitalization and death separately, except no evidence for differences between fourth dose brands for death in Cohort B. Interpretation: In a heterogeneous scenario of primary and first booster vaccination combinations, a fourth dose provided meaningful and durable protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to adenovirus-based booster, a fourth dose wild-type mRNA vaccine was associated with immediate lower hazards of hospitalization or death unsustained after 120 days. Funding: None.

Two mosquito salivary antigens demonstrate promise as biomarkers of recent exposure to P. falciparum infected mosquito bites.

Background: Measuring malaria transmission intensity using the traditional entomological inoculation rate is difficult. Antibody responses to mosquito salivary proteins such as SG6 have previously been used as biomarkers of exposure to Anopheles mosquito bites. Here, we investigate four mosquito salivary proteins as potential biomarkers of human exposure to mosquitoes infected with P. falciparum: mosGILT, SAMSP1, AgSAP, and AgTRIO. Methods: We tested population-level human immune responses in longitudinal and cross-sectional plasma samples from individuals with known P. falciparum infection from low and moderate transmission areas in Senegal using a multiplexed magnetic bead-based assay. Results: AgSAP and AgTRIO were the best indicators of recent exposure to infected mosquitoes. Antibody responses to AgSAP, in a moderate endemic area, and to AgTRIO in both low and moderate endemic areas, were significantly higher than responses in a healthy non-endemic control cohort (p-values = 0.0245, 0.0064, and <0.0001 respectively). No antibody responses significantly differed between the low and moderate transmission area, or between equivalent groups during and outside the malaria transmission seasons. For AgSAP and AgTRIO, reactivity peaked 2-4 weeks after clinical P. falciparum infection and declined 3 months after infection. Discussion: Reactivity to both AgSAP and AgTRIO peaked after infection and did not differ seasonally nor between areas of low and moderate transmission, suggesting reactivity is likely reflective of exposure to infectious mosquitos or recent biting rather than general mosquito exposure. Kinetics suggest reactivity is relatively short-lived. AgSAP and AgTRIO are promising candidates to incorporate into multiplexed assays for serosurveillance of population-level changes in P. falciparum-infected mosquito exposure.

Gender differences in the perception of leptospirosis severity, behaviours, and Leptospira exposure risk in urban Brazil: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Vulnerability to climate hazards and infectious diseases are not gender-neutral, meaning that men, women, boys, girls, and other gender identities experience different health risks. Leptospirosis, a zoonotic climate sensitive infectious disease, is commonly transmitted to humans via contact with animals and the environment, particularly soil and flood water. Gender differences in leptospiral infection risk are reported globally, with men consistently found to be at higher risk than women. However, the drivers of this difference in risk are poorly understood. Previous studies suggest that the interplay of knowledge, perceptions, and behaviours may shape differential infection risk among genders. Methodology/Principal Findings: To examine gender differences in Leptospira exposure risk we conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey among adult participants (n = 761) in four urban, marginalised, informal settlements in the city of Salvador, Brazil. We found that seroprevalence was 14.6% and 9.4% across men and women respectively. We then applied causal inference methodology to a two-part sex-disaggregated analysis to investigate: 1) the association of perceptions and behaviours with Leptospira seropositivity and 2) the association of perceptions with behaviours. We found that men who perceived leptospirosis as extremely serious had lower odds of seropositivity, walking through sewage water, or walking barefoot, suggesting an important link between perceptions, behaviours, and exposure risk. These associations were not found in women, and these behaviours were not associated with seropositivity in men or women. Conclusions: Our results highlight perceived severity of disease as a potential driver of behaviour in men, and perceptions of disease may be an important target for health education programs. Furthermore, our study identifies evidence gaps in the understanding of infection risks in women. As the first sex-disaggregated study investigating Leptospira infection risks, we advocate for a gendered lens in future studies to further understand risks specific to different gender identities.

Overestimation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Household Transmission in Settings of High Community Transmission: Insights From an Informal Settlement Community in Salvador, Brazil.

Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has spread globally. However, the contribution of community versus household transmission to the overall risk of infection remains unclear. Methods: Between November 2021 and March 2022, we conducted an active case-finding study in an urban informal settlement with biweekly visits across 1174 households with 3364 residents. Individuals displaying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related symptoms were identified, interviewed along with household contacts, and defined as index and secondary cases based on reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and symptom onset. Results: In 61 households, we detected a total of 94 RT-PCR-positive cases. Of 69 sequenced samples, 67 cases (97.1%) were attributed to the Omicron BA.1* variant. Among 35 of their households, the secondary attack rate was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0%-63.0%). Women (relative risk [RR], 1.6 [95% CI, .9-2.7]), older individuals (median difference, 15 [95% CI, 2-21] years), and those reporting symptoms (RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.0-3.0]) had a significantly increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 secondary infection. Genomic analysis revealed substantial acquisition of viruses from the community even among households with other SARS-CoV-2 infections. After excluding community acquisition, we estimated a household secondary attack rate of 24.2% (95% CI, 11.9%-40.9%). Conclusions: These findings underscore the ongoing risk of community acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 among households with current infections. The observed high attack rate necessitates swift booster vaccination, rapid testing availability, and therapeutic options to mitigate the severe outcomes of COVID-19.

Eco-epidemiological study of seropositivity against Rickettsia and Leptospira agents in rural areas of Urabá, Colombia.

Rickettsioses and leptospirosis are infectious diseases that are often underdiagnosed due to a lack of knowledge about their epidemiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis, management, among others. Objetive: to characterize the seroprevalence and seroincidence of both Rickettsia and Leptospira agents and determine the risk factors for these outcomes in rural areas of Urabá, Antioquia. Methods: a secondary data analysis using information on Rickettsia and Leptospira exposure from a prior prospective study that explored sociocultural and ecological aspects of Rickettsia infection in rural Urabá, Colombia. A multinomial mixed logistic regression model was employed to analyze factors linked to seroprevalent cases of Rickettsia, Leptospira and both, along with descriptive analyses of seroincident cases. Results: the concomitant seroprevalence against Rickettsiaand Leptospira was 9.38% [95%CI 6.08%-13.37%] (56/597). The factors associated with this seroprevalence were age (ORa= 1.02 [95%CI 1.007-1.03]), male gender (ORa= 3.06 [95%CI 1.75-5.37]), fever history (ORa= 1.71 [95%CI 1.06-2.77]) the presence of breeding pigs (ORa= 2.29 [95%CI 1.36-3.88]), peridomicile yucca crops(ORa= 2.5 [95%CI 1.1-5.62]), and deforestation practices(ORa= 1.74 [95%CI 1.06-2.87]). The concomitant seroincidence against Rickettsia and Leptospira was 1.09% (3/274) [95%CI 0.29%-4.05%], three cases were female, with a median age of 31.83 years-old (IQR 8.69-56.99). At the household level, all the seroincident cases had households built partially or totally with soil floors, wooden walls, and zinc roofs. Two seroincident cases described the presence of equines, canines, and domestic chickens in intra or peri-domicile. Finally, two cases were exposed to synanthropic rodents, and one case to tick infestation. Conclusion: there is evidence of seroprevalent and seroincident cases of seropositivity against both Rickettsia and Leptospira in rural areas of Urabá, Colombia. These findings can help improve public health surveillance systems in preventing, detecting, and attending to the different clinical cases caused by these pathogens.

Extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1* variant in a population with high levels of hybrid immunity: A prevalence survey.

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1* variant rapidly spread globally in late 2022, posing a challenge due to its increased immune evasion. METHODS: We conducted a prevalence survey in Brazil from November 16 to December 22, 2022, as part of a cohort study. We conducted interviews and collected nasal samples for reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing and whole-genome sequencing. Cumulative incidence was estimated using RT-PCR positivity, cycle threshold values, and external data on the dynamics of RT-PCR positivity following infection. RESULTS: Among 535 participants, 54% had documented SARS-CoV-2 exposure before this outbreak and 74% had received COVID-19 vaccination. In this study, 14.8% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with BQ.1* identified in 90.7% of cases. Using case data and cycle threshold values, cumulative incidence was estimated at 56% (95% confidence interval, 36-88%). Of the 79 positive participants, 48.1% had a symptomatic illness, with a lower proportion fulfilling the World Health Organization COVID-19 case definition compared to prior Omicron waves. No participants required medical attention. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high population-level hybrid immunity, the BQ.1* variant attacked 56% of our population. Lower disease severity was associated with BQ.1* compared to prior Omicron variants. Hybrid immunity may provide protection against future SARS-CoV-2 variants but in this case was not able to prevent widespread transmission.

Global groundwater droughts are more severe than they appear in hydrological models: An investigation through a Bayesian merging of GRACE and GRACE-FO data with a water balance model.

Realistic representation of hydrological drought events is increasingly important in world facing decreased freshwater availability. Index-based drought monitoring systems are often adopted to represent the evolution and distribution of hydrological droughts, which mainly rely on hydrological model simulations to compute these indices. Recent studies, however, indicate that model derived water storage estimates might have difficulties in adequately representing reality. Here, a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo - Data Assimilation (MCMC-DA) approach is implemented to merge global Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow On mission (GRACE-FO) with the water storage estimations derived from the W3RA water balance model. The modified MCMC-DA derived summation of deep-rooted soil and groundwater storage estimates is then used to compute 0.5∘ standardized groundwater drought indices globally to show the impact of GRACE/GRACE-FO DA on a global index-based hydrological drought monitoring system. Our numerical assessment covers the period of 2003-2021, and shows that integrating GRACE/GRACE-FO data modifies the seasonality and inter-annual trends of water storage estimations. Considerable increases in the length and severity of extreme droughts are found in basins that exhibited multi-year water storage fluctuations and those affected by climate teleconnections.

Social determinants of adult COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in a Brazilian urban informal community: a longitudinal time-to-event study.

Residents of informal urban settlements have a high risk of COVID-19 exposure and have less access to medical care, making vaccine-driven prevention critical in this vulnerable population. Despite robust vaccination campaigns in Brazil, vaccine uptake and timing continue to be influenced by social factors and contribute to health disparities. To address this, we conducted a sequential survey in a cohort of 717 adults in an urban favela in Salvador, Brazil where participants were interviewed in 2020, before vaccines were rolled out, and in 2022, after primary and booster dose distribution. We collected data on demographics, social characteristics, and COVID-19 vaccination status and intent. Primary series uptake was high (91.10% for 1 st dose and 94.74% for 2 nd dose among eligible); however, booster uptake was lower (63.51% of eligible population) at the time of the second interview, suggesting a decreasing interest in vaccination. To account for both vaccine refusal and delays, we conducted a Cox time-to-event analysis of dose uptake using sequential independent outcomes. Exposure times were determined by dose eligibility date to account for age and comorbidities. Intent to vaccinate in 2020 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.54, CI: [1.05, 1.98]) and age (HR: 1.27, CI: [1.01, 2.08]) were associated with higher vaccination rates for the 1 st dose. Males were less likely to receive the 1 st dose (HR: 0.61, CI: [0.35, 0.83]), and, compared to catholics, 2 nd dose uptake was lower for those identifying with Pentecostalism (HR: 0.49, CI: [0.37, 0.66]) and without a religion (HR: 0.49, CI: [0.37, 0.66]), with the latter association disappearing after controlling by age. Risk perception was associated with 2 nd dose uptake (HR: 1.15, CI: [1.08, 1.26]). The role of sex and religion in vaccination behavior highlights the need for targeted outreach and interfacing with local organizations. The data offers lessons to build a long-term COVID-19 vaccination strategy beyond availability.

Predictors of Neurodevelopment in Microcephaly Associated with Congenital Zika Syndrome: A Prospective Study.

The municipality of Salvador, situated in Brazil, distinguished itself as the epicenter of the emergence of microcephaly related to congenital manifestations of Zika syndrome. Despite the anticipated significant developmental setbacks in these children, research has indicated a varied range of outcomes, with certain instances even reflecting minimal developmental delay. Our objective was to pinpoint determinants that could forecast developmental anomalies in children diagnosed with microcephaly associated with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). METHODOLOGY: A forward-looking clinical and neurodevelopmental examination was conducted focusing on neonates diagnosed with microcephaly with CZS, birthed between September 2015 and April 2016 at the Hospital Geral Roberto Santos, in Salvador city. That infants were monitored up to their third year by a multiprofessional team. Child development was assessed using the composite Bayley III score. Undertaken by two blinded experts, cranial CT scan analysis was performed during the neonate period for the detection of brain abnormalities and to quantify ventricle enlargement, measured by Evans' index (EI). RESULTS: Fifty newborns were evaluated with a median head circumference of 28 cm (interquartile range 27-31 cm). EI was associated with neurodevelopmental delay at three years and remained significant after adjustment for head circumference. A 0.1-point increase in EI was associated with a delay of 3.2 months in the receptive language (p = 0.016), 3.4 months in the expressive language (p = 0.016), 3.4 months in the cognitive (p = 0.016), 2.37 months in the gross motor (p = 0.026), and 3.1 months in the fine motor (p = 0.021) domains. CONCLUSIONS: EI predicted neurodevelopmental delay in all Bayley domains in children with microcephaly associated with CZS.

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community.

BACKGROUND: The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks during the modern scientific era were identified in the Americas in 2013, reaching high attack rates in Caribbean countries. However, few cohort studies have been performed to characterize the initial dynamics of CHIKV transmission in the New World. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To describe the dynamics of CHIKV transmission shortly after its introduction in Brazil, we performed semi-annual serosurveys in a long-term community-based cohort of 652 participants aged ≥5 years in Salvador, Brazil, between Feb-Apr/2014 and Nov/2016-Feb/2017. CHIKV infections were detected using an IgG ELISA. Cumulative seroprevalence and seroincidence were estimated and spatial aggregation of cases was investigated. The first CHIKV infections were identified between Feb-Apr/2015 and Aug-Nov/2015 (incidence: 10.7%) and continued to be detected at low incidence in subsequent surveys (1.7% from Aug-Nov/2015 to Mar-May/2016 and 1.2% from Mar-May/2016 to Nov/206-Feb/2017). The cumulative seroprevalence in the last survey reached 13.3%. It was higher among those aged 30-44 and 45-59 years (16.1% and 15.6%, respectively), compared to younger (12.4% and 11.7% in <15 and 15-29 years, respectively) or older (10.3% in ≥60 years) age groups, but the differences were not statistically significant. The cumulative seroprevalence was similar between men (14.7%) and women (12.5%). Yet, among those aged 15-29 years, men were more often infected than women (18.1% vs. 7.4%, respectively, P = 0.01), while for those aged 30-44, a non-significant opposite trend was observed (9.3% vs. 19.0%, respectively, P = 0.12). Three spatial clusters of cases were detected in the study site and an increased likelihood of CHIKV infection was detected among participants who resided with someone with CHIKV IgG antibodies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Unlike observations in other settings, the initial spread of CHIKV in this large urban center was limited and focal in certain areas, leaving a high proportion of the population susceptible to further outbreaks. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the factors driving CHIKV spread dynamics, including understanding differences with respect to dengue and Zika viruses, in order to guide prevention and control strategies for coping with future outbreaks.

Bartonella in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) from the urban slum environment in Brazil.

Bartonella are rodent-borne bacteria that cause varied human etiologies. Studies on synanthropic rodents are rare, causing gaps in epidemiological knowledge. We tested bloodclot samples from 79 rats from an urban slum in Salvador, Brazil through PCR targeting gltA gene. Nine samples (11.4%) were positive: six had 100% identity with Bartonella sp. isolate JF429580 and 99.5% with B. queenslandensis strain AUST/NH8; three were 100% identical to isolate JF429532 and 99.7% to B. tribocorum. This is the second report on urban rat Bartonella indicating bacterial circulation at detectable rates. Its presence in rats from vulnerable human settlements demands public health attention.

Untangling fuel, weather and management effects on fire severity: Insights from large-sample LiDAR remote sensing analysis of conditions preceding the 2019-20 Australian wildfires.

Evaluation of fire severity reduction strategies requires the quantification of intervention outcomes and, more broadly, the extent to which fuel characteristics affect fire severity. However, investigations are currently limited by the availability of accurate data on fire severity predictors, particularly relating to fuel. Here, we used airborne LiDAR data collected before the 2019-20 Australian Black Summer fires to investigate the contribution of fuel structure to fire severity under a range of weather conditions. Fire severity was estimated using the Relative Burn Ratio calculated from Sentinel-2 optical remote sensing imagery. We modelled the effects of various fuel structure estimates and other environmental predictors using Random Forest models. In addition to variables estimated at each observation point, we investigated the influence of surrounding landscape characteristics using an innovative method to estimate fireline progression direction. Our models explained 63-76% of fire severity variance using parsimonious predictor sets. Fuel cover in the understorey and canopy, and vertical vegetation heterogeneity, were positively associated with fire severity. Up-fire burnt area and recent planned and unplanned fire reduced fire severity, whereby unplanned fire provided a longer-lasting reduction of fire severity (up to 15 years) than planned fire (up to 10 years). Although fuel structure and land management effects were important predictors, weather and canopy height effects were dominant. By mapping continuous interactions between weather and fuel-related variables, we found strong evidence of diminishing fuel effects below 20-40% relative air humidity. While our findings suggest that land management interventions can provide meaningful fire severity reduction, they also highlight the risk of warmer and drier future climates constraining these advantages.

Cytokine enrichment in deep cerebellar nuclei is contributed by multiple glial populations and linked to reduced amyloid plaque pathology.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and amyloid-beta (Aß) plaque deposition progress slowly in the cerebellum compared to other brain regions, while the entorhinal cortex (EC) is one of the most vulnerable regions. Using a knock-in AD mouse model (App KI), we show that within the cerebellum, the deep cerebellar nuclei (DCN) has particularly low accumulation of Aß plaques. To identify factors that might underlie differences in the progression of AD-associated neuropathology across regions, we profiled gene expression in single nuclei (snRNAseq) across all cell types in the DCN and EC of wild-type (WT) and App KI male mice at age 7 months. We found differences in expression of genes associated with inflammatory activation, PI3K-AKT signalling, and neuron support functions between both regions and genotypes. In WT mice, the expression of interferon-response genes in microglia is higher in the DCN than the EC and this enrichment is confirmed by RNA in situ hybridisation, and measurement of inflammatory cytokines by protein array. Our analyses also revealed that multiple glial populations are responsible for establishing this cytokine-enriched niche. Furthermore, homogenates derived from the DCN induced inflammatory gene expression in BV2 microglia. We also assessed the relationship between the DCN microenvironment and Aß pathology by depleting microglia using a CSF1R inhibitor PLX5622 and saw that, surprisingly, the expression of a subset of inflammatory cytokines was increased while plaque abundance in the DCN was further reduced. Overall, our study revealed the presence of a cytokine-enriched microenvironment unique to the DCN that when modulated, can alter plaque deposition.

High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901-2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections.

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990, and 1991-2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041-2070 and 2071-2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901-1930 to 1991-2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991-2020 to 2071-2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen .

An AI-powered patient triage platform for future viral outbreaks using COVID-19 as a disease model.

Over the last century, outbreaks and pandemics have occurred with disturbing regularity, necessitating advance preparation and large-scale, coordinated response. Here, we developed a machine learning predictive model of disease severity and length of hospitalization for COVID-19, which can be utilized as a platform for future unknown viral outbreaks. We combined untargeted metabolomics on plasma data obtained from COVID-19 patients (n = 111) during hospitalization and healthy controls (n = 342), clinical and comorbidity data (n = 508) to build this patient triage platform, which consists of three parts: (i) the clinical decision tree, which amongst other biomarkers showed that patients with increased eosinophils have worse disease prognosis and can serve as a new potential biomarker with high accuracy (AUC = 0.974), (ii) the estimation of patient hospitalization length with ± 5 days error (R2 = 0.9765) and (iii) the prediction of the disease severity and the need of patient transfer to the intensive care unit. We report a significant decrease in serotonin levels in patients who needed positive airway pressure oxygen and/or were intubated. Furthermore, 5-hydroxy tryptophan, allantoin, and glucuronic acid metabolites were increased in COVID-19 patients and collectively they can serve as biomarkers to predict disease progression. The ability to quickly identify which patients will develop life-threatening illness would allow the efficient allocation of medical resources and implementation of the most effective medical interventions. We would advocate that the same approach could be utilized in future viral outbreaks to help hospitals triage patients more effectively and improve patient outcomes while optimizing healthcare resources.

Evidence of leaky protection following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in an incarcerated population.

Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccines confer exposure-dependent ("leaky") protection against infection remains unknown. We examined the effect of prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity on infection risk among residents of Connecticut correctional facilities during periods of predominant Omicron and Delta transmission. Residents with cell, cellblock, and no documented exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected residents were matched by facility and date. During the Omicron period, prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity reduced the infection risk of residents without a documented exposure (HR: 0.36 [0.25-0.54]; 0.57 [0.42-0.78]; 0.24 [0.15-0.39]; respectively) and with cellblock exposures (0.61 [0.49-0.75]; 0.69 [0.58-0.83]; 0.41 [0.31-0.55]; respectively) but not with cell exposures (0.89 [0.58-1.35]; 0.96 [0.64-1.46]; 0.80 [0.46-1.39]; respectively). Associations were similar during the Delta period and when analyses were restricted to tested residents. Although associations may not have been thoroughly adjusted due to dataset limitations, the findings suggest that prior infection and vaccination may be leaky, highlighting the potential benefits of pairing vaccination with non-pharmaceutical interventions in crowded settings.