Visual policy narrative messaging improves COVID-19 vaccine uptake.

In the face of vaccine hesitancy, public health officials are seeking more effective risk communication approaches to increase vaccination rates. We test the influence of visual policy narratives on COVID-19 vaccination behavior through a panel survey experiment conducted in early 2021 (n = 3,900) and then 8 weeks later (n = 2,268). We examine the effects of three visual policy narrative messages that test the narrative mechanism of character selection (yourself, your circle, and your community) and a nonnarrative control on COVID-19 vaccine behavior. Visual risk messages that use narratives positively influence COVID-19 vaccination through serial mediation of affective response to the messages and motivation to get the COVID-19 vaccination. Additionally, character selection matters, as messages focusing on protecting others (i.e. your circle and your community) perform stronger than those of yourself. Political ideology moderated some of the effects, with conservative respondents in the nonnarrative control condition having a higher probability of vaccination in comparison to the protect yourself condition. Taken together, these results suggest that public health officials should use narrative-based visual communication messages that emphasize communal benefits of vaccinations.

Policy learning and change during crisis: COVID-19 policy responses across six states.

Whereas policy change is often characterized as a gradual and incremental process, effective crisis response necessitates that organizations adapt to evolving problems in near real time. Nowhere is this dynamic more evident than in the case of COVID-19, which forced subnational governments to constantly adjust and recalibrate public health and disease mitigation measures in the face of changing patterns of viral transmission and the emergence of new information. This study assesses (a) the extent to which subnational policies changed over the course of the pandemic; (b) whether these changes are emblematic of policy learning; and (c) the drivers of these changes, namely changing political and public health conditions. Using a novel dataset analyzing each policy's content, including its timing of enactment, substantive focus, stringency, and similar variables, results indicate the pandemic response varied significantly across states. The states examined were responsive to both changing public health and political conditions. This study identifies patterns of preemptive policy learning, which denotes learning in anticipation of an emerging hazard. In doing so, the study provides important insights into the dynamics of policy learning and change during disaster.

Mientras que el cambio de política a menudo se caracteriza como un proceso gradual e incremental, la respuesta efectiva a la crisis requiere que las organizaciones se adapten a los problemas en evolución casi en tiempo real. En ninguna parte esta dinámica es más evidente que en el caso de COVID­19, que obligó a los gobiernos subnacionales a ajustar y recalibrar constantemente las medidas de salud pública y mitigación de enfermedades ante los patrones cambiantes de transmisión viral y la aparición de nueva información. Este estudio evalúa (a) la medida en que las políticas subnacionales cambiaron en el transcurso de la pandemia; (b) si estos cambios son emblemáticos del aprendizaje de políticas; y (c) los impulsores de estos cambios, a saber, las cambiantes condiciones políticas y de salud pública. Usando un nuevo conjunto de datos que analiza el contenido de cada política, incluido el momento de la promulgación, el enfoque sustantivo, el rigor y variables similares, los resultados indican que la respuesta a la pandemia varió significativamente entre los estados. Los estados examinados respondieron a cambios tanto en la salud pública como en las condiciones políticas. Este estudio identifica patrones de aprendizaje de políticas preventivas, lo que denota aprendizaje en previsión de un peligro emergente. Al hacerlo, el estudio proporciona información importante sobre la dinámica del aprendizaje y el cambio de políticas durante un desastre.

The role of coalitions in disaster policymaking.

Disasters have the potential to act as focusing events, which can increase the amount of attention on disaster-related problems and encourage policy action. Understanding of the political characteristics of disaster policymaking is underdeveloped, yet it is known that these features may be dissimilar to those of non-disaster policy areas, especially concerning the coalitions of policy actors engaged in the disaster policy process. Coalitions in the realm of disaster policy processes may be less likely to form, may look very different, and may have different goals than those in non-disaster domains. Knowledge of the emergence, composition, and purpose of coalitions in disaster policy is lacking. This paper draws on prior theory and case observations to define and describe the characteristics of a disaster policy subsystem and to build a typology of coalitions that may appear within such a subsystem, providing a foundation upon which scholars can work to study coalition dynamics in disaster policy subsystems.

Building Resilience during Recovery: Lessons from Colorado's Watershed Resilience Pilot Program.

As the potential for and scope of some types of disasters increases, so too does the need to build greater disaster resilience across the globe. Communities ideally begin building resilience prior to experiencing a disaster in order to reduce negative impacts and ease recovery processes; however, numerous environmental and sociopolitical factors can impede such efforts until a disaster occurs. While the disaster recovery period offers opportunities for communities to build resilience as they replace infrastructure and restore services, a host of new issues arise during this time that can further complicate or delay resilience building. In this study, we highlight the opportunities and challenges inherent at the intersection of disaster recovery and resilience building, which we term the "recovery-resilience nexus." To study this nexus, we analyze a first-of-its-kind disaster recovery program in Colorado, United States, that promotes resilience-building activities in disaster-affected communities by supporting the efforts of place-based watershed coalitions. Although the program faced numerous and interrelated technical, political, and fiscal hurdles, we argue that it provides an opportunity for drawing important lessons about how communities can navigate the recovery-resilience nexus via cross-boundary collaboration and creatively leveraging traditional disaster recovery funding sources to achieve resilience goals.

Quantity of flowback and produced waters from unconventional oil and gas exploration.

The management and disposal of flowback and produced waters (FP water) is one of the greatest challenges associated with unconventional oil and gas development. The development and production of unconventional natural gas and oil is projected to increase in the coming years, and a better understanding of the volume and quality of FP water is crucial for the safe management of the associated wastewater. We analyzed production data using multiple statistical methods to estimate the total FP water generated per well from six of the major unconventional oil and gas formations in the United States. The estimated median volume ranges from 1.7 to 14.3millionL (0.5 to 3.8milliongal) of FP per well over the first 5-10years of production. Using temporal volume production and water quality data, we show a rapid increase of the salinity associated with a decrease of FP production rates during the first months of unconventional oil and gas production. Based on mass-balance calculations, we estimate that only 4-8% of FP water is composed of returned hydraulic fracturing fluids, while the remaining 92-96% of FP water is derived from naturally occurring formation brines that is extracted together with oil and gas. The salinity and chemical composition of the formation brines are therefore the main limiting factors for beneficial reuse of unconventional oil and gas wastewater.

Parental dietary seleno-L-methionine exposure and resultant offspring developmental toxicity.

Selenium (Se) leaches into water from agricultural soils and from storage sites for coal fly ash. Se toxicity causes population and community level effects in fishes and birds. We used the laboratory aquarium model fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), an asynchronous breeder, to determine aspects of uptake in adults and resultant developmental toxicity in their offspring. The superior imaging properties of the model enabled detailed descriptions of phenotypic alterations not commonly reported in the existing Se literature. Adult males and females in treatment groups were exposed, separately and together, to a dry diet spiked with 0, 12.5, 25, or 50 µg/g (dry weight) seleno-L-methionine (SeMet) for 6 days, and their embryo progeny collected for 5 days, maintained under controlled conditions and observed daily for hatchability, mortality and/or developmental toxicity. Sites of alteration included: craniofacial, pericardium and abdomen (Pc/Ab), notochord, gall bladder, spleen, blood, and swim bladder. Next, adult tissue Se concentrations (liver, skeletal muscle, ovary and testis) were determined and compared in treatment groups of bred and unbred individuals. No significant difference was found across treatment groups at the various SeMet concentrations; and, subsequent analysis compared exposed vs. control in each of the treatment groups at 10 dpf. Increased embryo mortality was observed in all treatment groups, compared to controls, and embryos had a decreased hatching rate when both parents were exposed. Exposure resulted in significantly more total altered phenotypes than controls. When altered phenotypes following exposure of both parents were higher than maternal only exposure, a male role was suggested. The comparisons between treatment groups revealed that particular types of phenotypic change may be driven by the sex of the exposed parent. Additionally, breeding reduced Se concentrations in some adult tissues, specifically the liver of exposed females and skeletal muscle of exposed males. Detailed phenotypic analysis of progeny from SeMet exposed parents should inform investigations of later life stages in an effort to determine consequences of early life exposure.

A study of anthropogenic and climatic disturbance of the New River Estuary using a Bayesian belief network.

The present paper utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach to intuitively present and quantify our current understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that lead to eutrophication in an estuarine ecosystem (New River Estuary, North Carolina, USA). The model is further used to explore the effects of plausible future climatic and nutrient pollution management scenarios on water quality indicators. The BBN, through visualizing the structure of the network, facilitates knowledge communication with managers/stakeholders who might not be experts in the underlying scientific disciplines. Moreover, the developed structure of the BBN is transferable to other comparable estuaries. The BBN nodes are discretized exploring a new approach called moment matching method. The conditional probability tables of the variables are driven by a large dataset (four years). Our results show interaction among various predictors and their impact on water quality indicators. The synergistic effects caution future management actions.