Predicting Severe Disease and Critical Illness on Initial Diagnosis of COVID-19: Simple Triage Tools.

RATIONALE: This study was conducted to develop, validate, and compare prediction models for severe disease and critical illness among symptomatic patients with confirmed COVID-19. METHODS: For development cohort, 433 symptomatic patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between April 15th 2020 and June 30th, 2020 presented to Tawam Public Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates were included in this study. Our cohort included both severe and non-severe patients as all cases were admitted for purpose of isolation as per hospital policy. We examined 19 potential predictors of severe disease and critical illness that were recorded at the time of initial assessment. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to construct predictive models. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration and goodness of fit of the models were assessed. A cohort of 213 patients assessed at another public hospital in the country during the same period was used to validate the models. RESULTS: One hundred and eighty-six patients were classified as severe while the remaining 247 were categorized as non-severe. For prediction of progression to severe disease, the three independent predictive factors were age, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and serum albumin (ALA model). For progression to critical illness, the four independent predictive factors were age, serum LDH, kidney function (eGFR), and serum albumin (ALKA model). The AUC for the ALA and ALKA models were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.86-0.89) and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.83-0.86), respectively. Calibration of the two models showed good fit and the validation cohort showed excellent discrimination, with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83-0.99) for the ALA model and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.80-0.99) for the ALKA model. A free web-based risk calculator was developed. CONCLUSIONS: The ALA and ALKA predictive models were developed and validated based on simple, readily available clinical and laboratory tests assessed at presentation. These models may help frontline clinicians to triage patients for admission or discharge, as well as for early identification of patients at risk of developing critical illness.

Mold in Foam Pillows and Mattresses: A Novel Cause of Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis.

Hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is an inflammatory and/or fibrotic disease affecting the lung parenchyma and small airways. It typically results from an immune-mediated reaction provoked by an overt or occult inhaled antigen in susceptible individuals. The chronic or fibrotic form of HP has a poor prognosis, especially when no inciting antigen is identified, which occurs in up to 60% of cases. We report two cases of HP associated with exposure to mold in foam pillows and a mattress, which has not previously been reported as a risk factor for HP. Given the high prevalence of foam in pillows and mattresses, mold in foam in bedding may explain many HP cases with a previously unrecognized cause. Early identification and avoidance of foam in bedding may prevent HP progression to end-stage pulmonary fibrosis and death.

Fine crackles on chest auscultation in the early diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is an interstitial lung disease (ILD) with a poor prognosis. Early diagnosis and treatment of IPF may increase lifespan and preserve quality of life. Chest CT is the best test to diagnose IPF, but it is expensive and impractical as a screening test. Fine crackles on chest auscultation may be the only best to screen for IPF. METHODS: We prospectively assessed the presence and type of crackles on chest auscultation in all patients referred to the ILD Clinic at the Kingston Health Sciences Center in Ontario, Canada. Clinicians with varying levels of experience recorded the presence of fine crackles, coarse crackles or both independently and unaware of the final diagnosis. We applied multinomial logistic regression to adjust for ILD severity and factors that could affect the identification of crackles. RESULTS: We evaluated 290 patients referred to the ILD Clinic. On initial presentation, 93% of patients with IPF and 73% of patients with non-IPF ILD had fine crackles on auscultation. In patients with IPF, fine crackles were more common than cough (86%), dyspnoea (80%), low diffusing capacity (87%), total lung capacity (57%) and forced vital capacity (50%). There was 90% observer agreement in identifying fine crackles at a subsequent visit. In multiple regression analysis, the identification of fine crackles was unaffected by lung function, symptoms, emphysema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, obesity or clinician experience (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Fine crackles on chest auscultation are a sensitive and robust screening tool that can lead to early diagnosis and treatment of patients with IPF.

Aspergillus isolation in nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease: Associated with antimycobacterial treatment initiation but not response.

PURPOSE: Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis is a serious complication of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD), and diagnosis remains challenging. The present study examined associations between the respiratory isolation of Aspergillus and the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients with NTM-PD. METHODS: All patients meeting NTM-PD criteria as defined by the ATS/IDSA statement, with at least one respiratory sample cultured for fungi, were included in this retrospective cohort analysis. Patients with at least one respiratory sample isolating Aspergillus were compared to patients who did not isolate Aspergillus. The primary outcomes were culture conversion and radiologic evolution 12 months after NTM-PD treatment initiation. RESULTS: During a 12 year period, 497 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were seen in our tertiary care center, of whom 130 grew Aspergillus. Median follow up after NTM-PD diagnosis was 46 months. Inhaled corticosteroid use, a nodular-bronchiectatic CT pattern and NTM-PD treatment initiation were more frequent in patients who isolated Aspergillus compared to those who did not (p-value respectively 0.01, 0.03 and < 0.001). Rates of culture conversion (63.0% vs. 62.2%, respectively; p-value 1) and radiologic evolution (improvement or stability in 69.7% vs. 77.2%, respectively; p-value 0.25) were not significantly different between treatment groups. Likewise, culture reversion rate and 5-year mortality were not significantly different. Additionally, A. fumigatus and repeated detection of Aspergillus were not associated with treatment outcomes. CONCLUSION: There was no association between respiratory isolation of Aspergillus and NTM-PD treatment outcomes in this cohort. However, treatment for NTM-PD was initiated more frequently in patients who isolated Aspergillus.