ABSTRACT
This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Asia, Southeastern , Myanmar , Seasons , ThailandABSTRACT
The ability of massive Porites corals to faithfully record temperature is assessed. Porites corals from Kepulauan Seribu were sampled from one inshore and one offshore site and analyzed for their Sr/Ca variation. The results show that Sr/Ca of the offshore coral tracked SST, while Sr/Ca variation of the inshore coral tracked ambient air temperature. In particular, the inshore SST variation is related to air temperature anomalies of the urban center of Jakarta. The latter we relate to air-sea interactions modifying inshore SST associated with the land-sea breeze mechanism and/or monsoonal circulation. The correlation pattern of monthly coral Sr/Ca with the Niño3.4 index and SEIO-SST reveals that corals in the Seribu islands region respond differently to remote forcing. An opposite response is observed for inshore and offshore corals in response to El Niño onset, yet similar to El Niño mature phase (December to February). SEIO SSTs co-vary strongly with SST and air temperature variability across the Seribu island reef complex. The results of this study clearly indicate that locations of coral proxy record in Indonesia need to be chosen carefully in order to identify the seasonal climate response to local and remote climate and anthropogenic forcing.
