Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. METHODS: The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

Presence of trans-Fatty Acids Containing Ingredients in Pre-Packaged Foods and the Availability of Reported trans-Fat Levels in Kenya and Nigeria.

In most African countries, the prevalence of industrially produced trans-fatty acids (iTFA) in the food supply is unknown. We estimated the number and proportion of products containing specific (any hydrogenated edible oils) and non-specific (vegetable fat, margarine, and vegetable cream) ingredients potentially indicative of iTFAs among pre-packaged foods collected in Kenya and Nigeria. We also summarized the number and proportion of products that reported trans-fatty acids levels and the range of reported trans-fatty acids levels. In total, 99 out of 5668 (1.7%) products in Kenya and 310 out of 6316 (4.9%) products in Nigeria contained specific ingredients indicative of iTFAs. Bread and bakery products and confectioneries in both countries had the most foods that contained iTFAs-indicative ingredients. A total of 656 products (12%) in Kenya and 624 products (10%) in Nigeria contained non-specific ingredients that may indicate the presence of iTFAs. The reporting of levels of trans-fatty acids was low in both Kenya and Nigeria (11% versus 26%, respectively, p < 0.001). With the increasing burden of ischemic heart disease in Kenya and Nigeria, the rapid adoption of WHO best-practice policies and the mandatory declaration of trans-fatty acids are important for eliminating iTFAs.

Fixed-dose combination therapy-based protocol compared with free pill combination protocol: Results of a cluster randomized trial.

Fixed-dose combination (FDC) therapy is recommended for hypertension management in Nigeria based on randomized trials at the individual level. This cluster-randomized trial evaluates effectiveness and safety of a treatment protocol that used two-drug FDC therapy as the second and third steps for hypertension control compared with a protocol that used free pill combinations. From January 2021 to June 2021, 60 primary healthcare centers in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria were randomized to a protocol using FDC therapy as second and third steps compared with a protocol that used the same medications in free pill combination therapy for these steps. Eligible patients were adults (≥18 years) with hypertension. The primary outcome was the odds of a patient being controlled at their last visit between baseline to 6-month follow-up in the FDC group compared to the free pill group. 4427 patients (mean [SD] age: 49.0 [12.4] years, 70.5% female) were registered with mean (SD) baseline systolic/diastolic blood pressure 155 (20.6)/96 (13.1) mm Hg. Baseline characteristics of groups were similar. After 6-months, hypertension control rate improved in the two treatment protocols, but there were no differences between the groups after adjustment (FDC = 53.9% versus free pill combination = 47.9%, cluster-adjusted p = .29). Adverse events were similarly low (<1%) in both groups. Both protocols improved hypertension control rates at 6-months in comparison to baseline, though no differences were observed between groups. Further work is needed to determine if upfront FDC therapy is more effective and efficient to improve hypertension control rates.

Estimating the prevalence of COPD in an African country: evidence from southern Nigeria.

# Background: Though several environmental and demographic factors would suggest a high burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in most African countries, there is insufficient country-level synthesis to guide public health policy. # Methods: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online identified studies reporting the prevalence of COPD in Nigeria. We provided a detailed synthesis of study characteristics, and overall median and interquartile range (IQR) of COPD prevalence in Nigeria by case definitions (spirometry or non-spirometry). # Results: Of 187 potential studies, eight studies (6 spirometry and 2 non-spirometry) including 4,234 Nigerians met the criteria. From spirometry assessment, which is relatively internally consistent, the median prevalence of COPD in Nigeria was 9.2% (interquartile range, IQR: 7.6-10.0), compared to a lower prevalence (5.1%, IQR: 2.2-15.4) from studies based on British Medical Research Council (BMRC) criteria or doctor's diagnosis. The median prevalence of COPD was almost the same among rural (9.5%, IQR: 7.6-10.3) and urban dwellers (9.0%, IQR: 5.3-9.3) from spirometry studies. # Conclusions: A limited number of studies on COPD introduces imprecision in prevalence estimates and presents concerns on the level of response available across different parts of Nigeria, and indeed across many countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Characteristics and Patterns of Retention in Hypertension Care in Primary Care Settings From the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria Program.

Background: More than 1.2 billion adults worldwide have hypertension. High retention in clinical care is essential for long-term management of hypertension, but 1-year retention rates are less than 50% in many resource-limited settings. Objective: To evaluate short-term retention rates and associated factors among patients with hypertension in primary health care centers in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, data were collected by trained study staff from adults aged 18 years or older at 60 public, primary health care centers in Nigeria between January 2020 and July 2021 as part of the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria (HTN) Program. Patients with hypertension were registered. Exposures: Follow-up visit for hypertension care within 37 days of the registration visit. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the 3-month rolling average 37-day retention rate in hypertension care, calculated by dividing the number of patients who had a follow-up visit within 37 days of their first (ie, registration) visit in the program by the total number of registered patients with hypertension during multiple consecutive 3-month periods. Interrupted time series analyses evaluated trends in retention rates before and after the intervention phase of the HTN Program. Mixed-effects, multivariable regression models evaluated associations between patient-, site-, and area council-level factors, hypertension treatment and control status, and 37-day retention rate. Results: In total, 10 686 patients (68.3% female; mean [SD] age, 48.8 [12.7] years) were included in the analysis. During the study period, the 3-month rolling average 37-day retention rate was 41% (95% CI, 37%-46%), with wide variability among sites. The retention rate was higher among patients who were older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.01 per year; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02 per year), were female (aOR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.23), had a higher body mass index (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02), were in the Kuje vs the Abaji area council (aOR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.25-4.04), received hypertension treatment at the registration visit (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.50), and were registered during the postintervention period (aOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06-1.26). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that retention in hypertension care is suboptimal in primary health care centers in Nigeria, although large variability among sites was found. Potentially modifiable and nonmodifiable factors associated with retention were identified and may inform multilevel, contextualized implementation strategies to improve retention.

Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria (HTN) Program: rationale and design for a type 2 hybrid, effectiveness, and implementation interrupted time series trial.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most common cardiovascular disease in Nigeria and contributes to a large non-communicable disease burden. Our aim was to implement and evaluate a large-scale hypertension treatment and control program, adapted from the Kaiser Permanent Northern California and World Health Organization HEARTS models, within public primary healthcare centers in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. METHODS: A type 2 hybrid, interrupted time series design was used to generate novel information on large-scale implementation and effectiveness of a multi-level hypertension control program within 60 primary healthcare centers in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. During the formative phase, baseline qualitative assessments were held with patients, health workers, and administrators to inform implementation package adaptation. The package includes a hypertension patient registry with empanelment, performance and quality reporting, simplified treatment guideline emphasizing fixed-dose combination therapy, reliable access to quality essential medicines and technology, team-based care, and health coaching and home blood pressure monitoring. Strategies to implement and adapt the package were identified based on barriers and facilitators mapped in the formative phase, previous implementation experience, mid-term qualitative evaluation, and ongoing stakeholder and site feedback. The control phase included 11 months of sequential registration of hypertensive patients at participating primary healthcare centers, followed by implementation of the remainder of the package components and evaluation over 37 subsequent, consecutive months of the intervention phase. The formative phase was completed between April 2019 and August 2019, followed by initiation of the control phase in January 2020. The control phase included 11 months (January 2020 to November 2020) of sequential registration and empanelment of hypertensive patients at participating primary healthcare centers. After completion of the control phase in November 2020, the intervention phase commenced in December 2020 and will be completed in December 2023. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide robust evidence for implementation and effectiveness of a multi-level implementation package more broadly throughout the Federal Capital Territory, which may inform hypertension systems of care throughout Nigeria and in other low- and middle-income countries. Implementation outcome results will be important to understand what system-, site-, personnel-, and patient-level factors are necessary for successful implementation of this intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04158154 . The trial was prospectively registered on November 8, 2019.

Characteristics, treatment, and control of hypertension in public primary healthcare centers in Nigeria: baseline results from the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria Program.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on large-scale, multilevel implementation research studies to improve hypertension diagnosis, treatment, and control rates at the primary healthcare (PHC) level in Africa. We describe the characteristics, treatment, and control rates of patients with hypertension in public PHC centers in the Hypertension Treatment in Nigeria Program. METHODS: Data were collected from adults at least 18 years at 60 public PHC centers between January 2020 and November 2020. Hypertension treatment rates were calculated at registration and upon completion of the initial visit. Hypertension control rates were calculated based on SBP and DBPs less than 140/90 mmHg. Regression models were created to evaluate factors associated with hypertension treatment and control status. RESULTS: Four thousand, nine hundred and twenty-seven individuals [66.7% women, mean (SD) age = 48.2 (12.9) years] were included. Mean (SD) SBP was higher in men compared with women [152.9 (20.0) mmHg versus 150.8 (21) mmHg, P = 0.001]. Most (58.3%) patients were on treatment at the time of registration, and by the end of the baseline visit, 89.2% of patients were on treatment. The baseline hypertension control rate was 13.1%, and control was more common among patients who were older [adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.01 [1.01 -1.02)], women [adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.30 (1.05- 1.62)], who used fixed dose combination therapy [adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.83 (1.49 -2.26)], and had higher education levels. CONCLUSION: This baseline report of the largest facility-based hypertension study in Africa demonstrates high hypertension treatment rates but low control rates.

Epidemiology of physical inactivity in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial to preventing noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to provide up-to-date evidence on the epidemiology of insufficient physical activity across Nigeria to increase awareness and prompt relevant policy and public health response. METHODS: A systematic literature search of community-based studies on physical inactivity was conducted. We constructed a meta-regression epidemiologic model to determine the age-adjusted prevalence and number of physically inactive persons in Nigeria for 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: Fifteen studies covering a population of 13 814 adults met our selection criteria. The pooled crude prevalence of physically inactive persons in Nigeria was 52.0% (95% CI: 33.7-70.4), with prevalence in women higher at 55.8% (95% CI: 29.4-82.3) compared to men at 49.3% (95% CI: 24.7-73.9). Across settings, prevalence of physically inactive persons was significantly higher among urban dwellers (56.8%, 35.3-78.4) compared to rural dwellers (18.9%, 11.9-49.8). Among persons aged 20-79 years, the total number of physically inactive persons increased from 14.4 million to 48.6 million between 1995 and 2020, equivalent to a 240% increase over the 25-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and robust strategy that addresses occupational policies, town planning, awareness and information, and sociocultural and contextual issues is crucial to improving physical activity levels in Nigeria.

Malaria and helminth co-infections in children living in endemic countries: A systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current knowledge on the burden of, and interactions between malaria and helminth co-infections, as well as the impact of the dual infections on anaemia, remains inconclusive. We have conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to update current knowledge as a first step towards developing and deploying coordinated approaches to the control and, ultimately, elimination of malaria-helminth co-infections among children living in endemic countries. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health and Web of Science from each database inception until 16 March 2020, for peer-reviewed articles reporting malaria-helminth co-infections in children living in endemic countries. No language restriction was applied. Following removal of duplicates, two reviewers independently screened the studies for eligibility. We used the summary odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) as a measure of association (random-effects model). We also performed Chi-square heterogeneity test based on Cochrane's Q and evaluated the severity of heterogeneity using I2 statistics. The included studies were examined for publication bias using a funnel plot and statistical significance was assessed using Egger's test (bias if p<0.1). Fifty-five of the 3,507 citations screened were eligible, 28 of which had sufficient data for meta-analysis. The 28 studies enrolled 22, 114 children in 13 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. Overall, the pooled estimates showed a prevalence of Plasmodium-helminth co-infections of 17.7% (95% CI 12.7-23.2%). Summary estimates from 14 studies showed a lower odds of P. falciparum infection in children co-infected with Schistosoma spp (OR: 0.65; 95%CI: 0.37-1.16). Similar lower odds of P. falciparum infection were observed from the summary estimates of 24 studies in children co-infected with soil transmitted helminths (STH) (OR: 0.42; 95%CI: 0.28-0.64). When adjusted for age, gender, socio-economic status, nutritional status and geographic location of the children, the risk of P. falciparum infection in children co-infected with STH was higher compared with children who did not have STH infection (OR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.03-1.65). A subset of 16 studies showed that the odds of anaemia were higher in children co-infected with Plasmodium and STH than in children with Plasmodium infection alone (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 0.59-2.45), and were almost equal in children co-infected with Plasmodium-Schistosoma spp or Plasmodium infection alone (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.30-3.14). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The current review suggests that prevalence of malaria-helminth co-infection is high in children living in endemic countries. The nature of the interactions between malaria and helminth infection and the impact of the co-infection on anaemia remain inconclusive and may be modulated by the immune responses of the affected children.