Circumpolar ocean stability on Mars 3 Gy ago.

What was the nature of the Late Hesperian climate, warm and wet or cold and dry? Formulated this way the question leads to an apparent paradox since both options seem implausible. A warm and wet climate would have produced extensive fluvial erosion but few valley networks have been observed at the age of the Late Hesperian. A too cold climate would have kept any northern ocean frozen most of the time. A moderate cold climate would have transferred the water from the ocean to the land in the form of snow and ice. But this would prevent tsunami formation, for which there is some evidence. Here, we provide insights from numerical climate simulations in agreement with surface geological features to demonstrate that the Martian climate could have been both cold and wet. Using an advanced general circulation model (GCM), we demonstrate that an ocean can be stable, even if the Martian mean surface temperature is lower than 0 °C. Rainfall is moderate near the shorelines and in the ocean. The southern plateau is mostly covered by ice with a mean temperature below 0 °C and a glacier return flow back to the ocean. This climate is achieved with a 1-bar CO2-dominated atmosphere with 10% H2 Under this scenario of 3 Ga, the geologic evidence of a shoreline and tsunami deposits along the ocean/land dichotomy are compatible with ice sheets and glacial valleys in the southern highlands.

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2.

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub-tropics and more water-limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5-1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation-forced warming and contribute to year-round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2-driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts.

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology.

This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7-3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.

Albedos, Equilibrium Temperatures, and Surface Temperatures of Habitable Planets.

The potential habitability of known exoplanets is often categorized by a nominal equilibrium temperature assuming a Bond albedo of either ∼0.3, similar to Earth, or 0. As an indicator of habitability, this leaves much to be desired, because albedos of other planets can be very different, and because surface temperature exceeds equilibrium temperature due to the atmospheric greenhouse effect. We use an ensemble of general circulation model simulations to show that for a range of habitable planets, much of the variability of Bond albedo, equilibrium temperature and even surface temperature can be predicted with useful accuracy from incident stellar flux and stellar temperature, two known parameters for every confirmed exoplanet. Earth's Bond albedo is near the minimum possible for habitable planets orbiting G stars, because of increasing contributions from clouds and sea ice/snow at higher and lower instellations, respectively. For habitable M star planets, Bond albedo is usually lower than Earth's because of near-IR H2O absorption, except at high instellation where clouds are important. We apply relationships derived from this behavior to several known exoplanets to derive zeroth-order estimates of their potential habitability. More expansive multivariate statistical models that include currently non-observable parameters show that greenhouse gas variations produce significant variance in albedo and surface temperature, while increasing length of day and land fraction decrease surface temperature; insights for other parameters are limited by our sampling. We discuss how emerging information from global climate models might resolve some degeneracies and help focus scarce observing resources on the most promising planets.

The Sensitivity of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Modern Agriculture in the Northern Midlatitudes.

Modern agricultural land cover and management are important as regional climate forcings. Previous work has shown that land cover change can significantly impact key climate variables, including turbulent fluxes, precipitation, and surface temperature. However, fewer studies have investigated how intensive crop management can impact background climate conditions, such as the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and evaporative regime. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model with modified vegetation characteristics to represent modern crop cover and management, using observed crop-specific leaf area indexes and calendars. We quantify changes in land-atmosphere interactions and climate over intensively cultivated regions situated at transitions between moisture- and energy-limited conditions. Results show that modern intensive agriculture has significant and geographically varying impacts on regional evaporative regimes and background climate conditions. Over the northern Great Plains, modern crop intensity increases the model simulated precipitation and soil moisture, weakening hydrologic coupling by increasing surface water availability and reducing moisture limits on evapotranspiration. In the U.S. Midwest, higher growing season evapotranspiration, coupled with winter and spring rainfall declines, reduces regional soil moisture, while crop albedo changes also reduce net surface radiation. This results overall in reduced dependency of regional surface temperature on latent heat fluxes. In central Asia, a combination of reduced net surface energy and enhanced pre-growing season precipitation amplify the energy-limited evaporative regime. These results highlight the need for improved representations of agriculture in global climate models to better account for regional climate impacts and interactions with other anthropogenic forcings.

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri b with a Dynamic Ocean.

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamical regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A freshwater ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger versus smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable by using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, for example, in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets I: 3-D Model Simulations.

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are opensource and publicly available.

Was Venus the First Habitable World of our Solar System?

Present-day Venus is an inhospitable place with surface temperatures approaching 750K and an atmosphere 90 times as thick as Earth's. Billions of years ago the picture may have been very different. We have created a suite of 3-D climate simulations using topographic data from the Magellan mission, solar spectral irradiance estimates for 2.9 and 0.715 Gya, present-day Venus orbital parameters, an ocean volume consistent with current theory, and an atmospheric composition estimated for early Venus. Using these parameters we find that such a world could have had moderate temperatures if Venus had a rotation period slower than ~16 Earth days, despite an incident solar flux 46-70% higher than Earth receives. At its current rotation period, Venus's climate could have remained habitable until at least 715 million years ago. These results demonstrate the role rotation and topography play in understanding the climatic history of Venus-like exoplanets discovered in the present epoch.