Pandemics and socio-economic status. Evidence from the plague of 1630 in northern Italy.

This paper investigates the biological, socio-economic, and institutional factors shaping the individual risk of death during a major pre-industrial epidemic. We use a micro-demographic database for an Italian city (Carmagnola) during the 1630 plague to explore in detail the survival dynamics of the population admitted to the isolation hospital (lazzaretto). We develop a theoretical model of admissions to the lazzaretto, for better interpretation of the observational data. We explore how age and sex shaped the individual risk of death, and we provide a one-of-a-kind study of the impact of socio-economic status. We report an inversion of the normal mortality gradient by status for those interned at the lazzaretto. The rich enjoyed a greater ability to make decisions about their hospitalization, but this backfired. Instead, the poor sent to the lazzaretto faced a relatively low risk of death because they enjoyed better conditions than they would have experienced outside the hospital.

Income and inequality in the Aztec Empire on the eve of the Spanish conquest.

Today, Latin American countries are characterized by relatively high levels of economic inequality. This circumstance has often been considered a long-run consequence of the Spanish conquest and of the highly extractive institutions imposed by the colonizers. Here we show that, in the case of the Aztec Empire, high inequality predates the Spanish conquest, also known as the Spanish-Aztec War. We reach this conclusion by estimating levels of income inequality and of imperial extraction across the empire. We find that the richest 1% earned 41.8% of the total income, while the income share of the poorest 50% was just 23.3%. We also argue that those provinces that had resisted the Aztec expansion suffered from relatively harsh conditions, including higher taxes, in the context of the imperial system-and were the first to rebel, allying themselves with the Spaniards. Existing literature suggests that after the Spanish conquest, the colonial elites inherited pre-existing extractive institutions and added additional layers of social and economic inequality.

Epidemics and trust: The case of the Spanish Flu.

Recent studies argue that major crises can have long-lasting effects on individual behavior. While most studies focused on natural disasters, we explore the consequences of the global pandemic caused by a lethal influenza virus in 1918-19: the so-called "Spanish Flu." This was by far the worst pandemic of modern history, causing up to 100 million deaths worldwide. Using information about attitudes of respondents to the General Social Survey, we find evidence that experiencing the pandemic likely had permanent consequences in terms of individuals' social trust. Our findings suggest that lower social trust was passed on to the descendants of the survivors of the Spanish Flu who migrated to the United States. As trust is a crucial factor for long-term economic development, our research offers a new angle from which to assess current health threats.

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630.

This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40-60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical-demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.

Long-term trends in economic inequality: the case of the Florentine state, c. 1300-1800.

This article provides an overview of economic inequality, particularly of wealth, in the Florentine state (Tuscany) from the early fourteenth to the late eighteenth century. Regional studies of this kind are rare, and this is only the second-ever attempt at covering such a long period. Consistent with recent research conducted on other European areas, during the early modern period we find clear indications of a tendency for economic inequality to grow continually, a finding that for Tuscany cannot be explained as the consequence of economic growth. Furthermore, the exceptionally old sources we use allow us to demonstrate that a phase of declining inequality, lasting about one century, was triggered by the Black Death from 1348 to 1349. This finding challenges earlier scholarship and significantly alters our understanding of the economic consequences of the Black Death.

Estimating Sampling Selection Bias in Human Genetics: A Phenomenological Approach.

This research is the first empirical attempt to calculate the various components of the hidden bias associated with the sampling strategies routinely-used in human genetics, with special reference to surname-based strategies. We reconstructed surname distributions of 26 Italian communities with different demographic features across the last six centuries (years 1447-2001). The degree of overlapping between "reference founding core" distributions and the distributions obtained from sampling the present day communities by probabilistic and selective methods was quantified under different conditions and models. When taking into account only one individual per surname (low kinship model), the average discrepancy was 59.5%, with a peak of 84% by random sampling. When multiple individuals per surname were considered (high kinship model), the discrepancy decreased by 8-30% at the cost of a larger variance. Criteria aimed at maximizing locally-spread patrilineages and long-term residency appeared to be affected by recent gene flows much more than expected. Selection of the more frequent family names following low kinship criteria proved to be a suitable approach only for historically stable communities. In any other case true random sampling, despite its high variance, did not return more biased estimates than other selective methods. Our results indicate that the sampling of individuals bearing historically documented surnames (founders' method) should be applied, especially when studying the male-specific genome, to prevent an over-stratification of ancient and recent genetic components that heavily biases inferences and statistics.

The effects of plague on the distribution of property: Ivrea, Northern Italy 1630.

The demographic effects of the epidemics of plague in Early Modern Europe and their economic consequences illuminate the evolution of property structures and of wealth distribution during and after a mortality crisis. An analysis of the high-quality data available for the Italian city of Ivrea at the time of the 1630 plague shows the exceptional resilience of property structures. Like the social structures of the period, property structures were able to recover quickly, informed as they were by the lessons learnt by trial and error by the patrician families of the late Middle Ages, whose patrimonies had been badly damaged by the Black Death. In a period of recurrent catastrophes that struck European populations during the Old Demographic Regime, apparently 'inegalitarian' institutions seem to have had long-term 'egalitarian' effects.

Oil mobility in a saturated water-wetted bed of glass beads.

The mobilization of an oil bank in a packed bed of glass beads saturated with an aqueous phase has been studied both theoretically and experimentally. The size of the glass beads was varied in the range between 0.5 and 5mm. Two oils (hexadecane and hexane) with viscosities different for an order of magnitude and densities smaller than that of water have been used. A few more runs have been carried out using perchloroethylene (PCE), with density greater than that of water. The interfacial tension in the aqueous phase was varied in a quite large range (0.38-39.1 dyn/cm) by adding surfactants to the water. The glass assembly made it possible to follow the evolution of the dyed oily phase by the use of a digital camera. A very simple stochastic model for describing the porous structure of the packed bed made it possible to set a criterion for determining the probability of mobilization of ganglia which are produced by the fragmentation of the oil bank. The same model permits also to estimate the probability function of the velocity of a ganglion of an assigned size.