On the Effect of Asymmetrical Trait Inheritance on Models of Trait Evolution.

Current phylogenetic comparative methods modeling quantitative trait evolution generally assume that, during speciation, phenotypes are inherited identically between the two daughter species. This, however, neglects the fact that species consist of a set of individuals, each bearing its own trait value. Indeed, because descendent populations after speciation are samples of a parent population, we can expect their mean phenotypes to randomly differ from one another potentially generating a "jump" of mean phenotypes due to asymmetrical trait inheritance at cladogenesis. Here, we aim to clarify the effect of asymmetrical trait inheritance at speciation on macroevolutionary analyses, focusing on model testing and parameter estimation using some of the most common models of quantitative trait evolution. We developed an individual-based simulation framework in which the evolution of phenotypes is determined by trait changes at the individual level accumulating across generations, and cladogenesis occurs then by separation of subsets of the individuals into new lineages. Through simulations, we assess the magnitude of phenotypic jumps at cladogenesis under different modes of trait inheritance at speciation. We show that even small jumps can strongly alter both the results of model selection and parameter estimations, potentially affecting the biological interpretation of the estimated mode of evolution of a trait. Our results call for caution when interpreting analyses of trait evolution, while highlighting the importance of testing a wide range of alternative models. In the light of our findings, we propose that future methodological advances in comparative methods should more explicitly model the intraspecific variability around species mean phenotypes and how it is inherited at speciation.

Diversification in vipers: Phylogenetic relationships, time of divergence and shifts in speciation rates.

Snakes of the cosmopolitan family Viperidae comprise around 329 venomous species showing a striking heterogeneity in species richness among lineages. While the subfamily Azemiopinae comprises only two species, 70% of all viper species are arranged in the subfamily Crotalinae or the "pit vipers". The radiation of the pit vipers was marked by the evolution of the heat-sensing pits, which has been suggested to be a key innovation for the successful diversification of the group. Additionally, only crotalines were able to successfully colonize the New World. Here, we present the most complete molecular phylogeny for the family to date that comprises sequences from nuclear and mitochondrial genes representing 79% of all living vipers. We also investigated the time of divergence between lineages, using six fossils to calibrate the tree, and explored the hypothesis that crotalines have undergone an explosive radiation. Our phylogenetic analyses retrieved high support values for the monophyly of the family Viperidae, subfamilies Viperinae and Crotalinae, and 22 out of 27 genera, as well as well-supported intergeneric relationships throughout the family. We were able to recover a strongly supported sister clade to the New World pit vipers that comprises Gloydius, Ovophis, Protobothrops and Trimeresurus gracilis. Our results agree in many aspects with other studies focusing on the phylogenetics of vipers, but we recover new relationships as well. Despite the addition of new sequences we were not able to resolve some of the poor supported relationships previously suggested. Time of divergence estimates suggested that vipers started to radiate around the late Paleocene to middle Eocene with subfamilies most likely dating back to the Eocene. The invasion of the New World might have taken place sometime close to the Oligocene/Miocene boundary. Diversification analyses suggested a shift in speciation rates during the radiation of a sub-clade of pit vipers where speciation rates rapidly increased but slowed down toward the present. Thus, the evolution of the loreal pits alone does not seem to explain their explosive speciation rates. We suggest that climatic and geological changes in Asia and the invasion of the New World may have also contributed to the speciation shift found in vipers.